MADAGASCAR: MFM AND THE NEW OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000203

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: MFM AND THE NEW OPPOSITION

REF: ANTANANARIVO 195

Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: On March 20, Ambassador Marquardt met with
Manandafy Rakotonirina, president of political party MFM and
former special advisor to ex-President Ravalomanana. In
Rakotonirina's view, this week's events amounted to a coup
d'etat, and he is now working with the former president's
party, Tiako i Madagasikara (TIM),and the FJKM (Protestant)
Church to mount an opposition alliance to the new government
of Andry Rajoelina. Like the opposition he has now replaced,
he has several legitimate grievances against the new
government which will resonate with the former president's
supporters, and with those in the former opposition who
haven't gotten their due from the new administration. The
"new opposition" held rallies on March 21 and 23 in downtown
Antananarivo, with plans to continue daily, and have called
for larger anti-Rajoelina demonstrations on Sunday, March 29,
to coincide with the annual commemoration of the beginning of
the 1947 revolution against the French. These protesters
will have little more cohesion than those of the past three
months, with little common agenda other than ousting the new
"president", but will likely attract some significant support
against the new government. END SUMMARY.

PAVING THE WAY FOR RATSIRAKA'S RETURN
--------------


2. (C) MFM, Rakotonirina's party, has generally walked a
middle road between Ravalomanana's TIM and the "real"
opposition parties of AREMA, MTS, LEADER-Fanilo, and others.
Rakotonirina himself has had an on and off relationship with
Ravalomanana, whom he helped win power in 2001 before falling
out several years later; he remains a well-known politician
and public figures, having been involved in national politics
since 1968, including as a leader of the student group in the
1972 crisis. MFM has kept its distance from both the
opposition and the former government during the last several
months, but appears to have held open a line to Ravalomanana
without publicly backing him.


3. (C) Rakotonirina requested the meeting in order to inform
the Ambassador of his plans to mount an opposition to
"President" Rajoelina, and condemn the transfer of power as a
coup. He also came with a message from Ravalomanana, later
repeated directly in a phone call to the Ambassador (reftel),
that "Ravalomanana was required to sign the order
(transferring power to a military directorate) under threat
of death." (Note: post does not believe that this was
actually the case, although it appears to underpin TIM's new
strategy.) Rather than focusing his anger at Rajoelina,
however, Rakotonirina and his two MFM colleagues mostly spoke
about former president Didier Ratsiraka. In their version,
Rajoelina has been paving the way for Ratsiraka and his
allies to return from exile in France, and he was clearly
concerned that Ratsiraka may move to retake power. As a
former general and commander in chief of a now divided and
confused army, he believes Ratsiraka will command extensive
support among the country's armed forces, as well as that of
the population in his historical base along the east coast of
Madagascar. Like many here, Rakotonirina blames "France
Inc." with masterminding Ravalomanana's demise and
Rajoelina's ascent to power. His brochure inviting Malagasy
to participate in the March 29 celebration does so in fairly
inflammatory, anti-French terms.

THE PLAN
--------------


4. (C) The platform of Rakotonirina's "new opposition" is
simple: he agrees that the country's laws need revising, but
disagrees with Rajoelina's recent suspension of parliament
and broad reorganization of the "transition government", as
outlined in Ordinance 2009-003 (septel). He envisions an
enlarged Senate joining the National Assembly to form a
200-member "constituent assembly" tasked with rewriting the
electoral code and political party law, and working to hold
new elections in much shorter timeframe than Rajoelina's
stated deadline of 24 months. He is already in talks with
members of TIM, and will likely attract the support of
several other minor parties and independents who have not
fared well with the new government. On parting, Rakotonirina
suggested to the ambassador that the UN send peacekeepers to
Madagascar, which the ambassador dismissed out of hand.


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5. (C) COMMENT: Rakotonirina is not alone in his dismay at
the recent turn of events, and he will have many allies of
convenience to support his movement, particularly now that
the TIM-dominated parliament has been suspended. MFM will
likely emerge as a key organizing force in this "new
opposition", although its relatively small support base will
limit Rakotonirina's ability to set the agenda. He will
continue to straddle the sizable divides among the new
opposition forces, and will be a useful counterpart to the
TIM opposition (who may solely be interested in regaining
power) in a renewed push for some form of national dialogue
and reconciliation. END COMMENT.
MARQUARDT