AU Efforts IN The Comoros Continue

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000200

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EAID ECON CN
SUBJECT: AU Efforts IN The Comoros Continue

REF: ANTAN 178
ANTAN 153


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: After the Inter-Comoran Dialogue (REFTELS),AU
S/E Madeira continues to mediate in the Comoros. With guidance from
Addis, he brokered a meeting between Preisdent Sambi and the island
presidents and obtained agreement for all parliamentary elections to
take place in 2009. Tanzanian President Kikwete will reportedly
carry a message this week for Sambi to "act based on consensus,"
which is AU-speak for cautioning about efforts to extend his
mandate. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) African Union Special Envoy Madeira is back in the
Comoros after consulting with the AU Peace and Security Council in
Addis Ababa. Accompanied by the international community (French,
UN, Chinese, South Africa, Arab League, Libya, Embassy Comoros
Officer),S/E Madeira told President Sambi March 21 the
Inter-Comoran Dialogue was a major step. He obtained Sambi's
agreement to hold parliamentary elections in 2009 (National
Assembly, and three Island Assemblies),which is a key demand of the
"opposition." The President also confirmed he is taking into
account many recommendations from the Dialogue. S/E Maderia also
confirmed that President Sambi has invited the three island
executives to a meeting March 23 - such direct contact has not
occurred in over a year.


3. (SBU) Dialogue discussions on institutions and governance made
progress; even the hotly-debated question of the constitution was
useful. The key sticking point, all agreed, was President Sambi's
intention to extend his mandate one year to 2011. The President
insisted this was only/only a means to harmonize elections (Comment:
The excuse is clever, the international community has complained
about the cost of holding many separate elections. End Comment).
Sambi restated his offer to step down in 2010 if the three island
Presidents agree to do the same, so all four executives can be
elected at once. As always, the President asserted the people are
sovereign and his right to hold a referendum is clear.

President Kikwete
- - - - - - - - -


4. (SBU) President Sambi invited the dip corps to join him and
Tanzanian President Kikwete at a celebration March 25 of the
one-year anniversary of the African Union military intervention in
Anjouan to restore order and depose Colonel Bacar. Separately, S/E
Madeira told Comoros Officer that President Kikwete will carry AU
messages to Sambi, encouraging him to "act by consensus," consider
stability and reconciliation, and possibly to discourage him from
seeking to extend his mandate.

Opposition Leader Abdouwahabi
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


5. (SBU) Next AU S/E Maderia and dip corps went to see Grande Comore
Island President Abdouwahabi, who confirmed he would agree to see
Sambi March 23, but was otherwise intransigent. He unabashedly
confirmed rumors that on March 20 he had prevented Sambi from
attending prayers in his home village of Iconi and March 21 had
prevented Sambi from inaugurating a small public works project
there. His pride and defiance in these acts was unmistakable. He
scoffed at the notion that he and fellow island presidents might
shorten their mandates for the good of the country and for Sambi to
step down in 2010.

MARQUARDT