Inter-Comoran Dialogue Ends

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000178

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM ECON CN
SUBJECT: Inter-Comoran Dialogue Ends

REF: ANTAN 153


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: After five days of talks on the constitution,
institutions, and governance, the Inter-Comoran Dialogue closed
March 7. While the recommendations are not binding, an overwhelming
majority of participants insisted that President Sambi not seek to
extend his mandate in the upcoming referendum. Union Ministers were
inflexible on this point, insisting Sambi had the "last word" to ask
the people for an extra year in office. The previously reported
March 22 referendum date will likely slip but no new date has been
announced. END SUMMARY.

Significant Accomplishments...
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2. (SBU) The closing plenary March 7, like the opening March 4
(REFTEL) offered the podium to the Comoros' leadership spectrum:
Union, island, civil society, religious, diaspora, workers, and
traditional. The commissions on governance and institutions
conducted rigorous work, identifying many problems and sources of
dysfunction and making concrete recommendations. These discussions
and reports, observers agreed, will serve as a point of reference
for future work on reform in the Comoros.


3. (SBU) Dialogue participants agreed in principle that the Comoran
system of government did not work and required a major overhaul.
The disagreement was over timing and implications for unity. It was
an accomplishment for the Dialogue that the final report faithfully
indicated that "many participants" were against President Sambi's
effort to extend his mandate via referendum. Their arguments
against Sambi were also recorded: calling into question the
rotating presidency (due to go to Moheli in 2010); violating the
principle of non-retroactivity by allowing Sambi to benefit from the
change while in office; and challenging Sambi's main argument about
"harmonizing elections." Union Ministers present offered two
arguments in defense, "we are the government, this is not illegal,"
and "Sambi's extension in office helps harmonize elections."


4. (SBU) There was consensus that governance and institutions were
impaired by the "shared authority" provision of the 2001
constitution. In attempting to establish a federal structure, the
constitution outlined specific Union (central) and island powers and
authorities. However, for the sake of expediency, unresolved power
designations were declared "shared," to be resolved later -- leading
to paralysis. Participants also agreed a poor country like Comoros
could not afford its expensive government structures (called
"budgetivore"). Development was impossible with so many layers of
government. Of course they differed on who was to blame: the
islands said Sambi travels too much and the Union wastes money; the
Union said the island "presidents" were unnecessary and costly.

...Several Key Failures
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5. (SBU) The hoped-for direct meeting between President Sambi and
the "opposition" island executives of Grande Comore and Moheli never
happened. AU S/E Madeira pushed for such a meeting, but in the end
President Sambi did not commit to a time.


6. (SBU) After efficient and organized commission reports to
plenary on governance and institutions March 6, over eight hours on
March 7 were devoted to (trying) to deliver the final report from
the commission on constitutional reforms. Unlike the specific
recommendations from the other two, the constitution report was
vague. Former Prime Minister Bolero, head of the Mohelian
delegation, declared, "if Sambi's referendum passes, he will only be
president of Grande Comore and Anjouan." Even Anjouanese
participants called on Sambi not to remain in office, saying they
did not want another of their island's sons to lead the Comoros into
crisis. Significantly several senior Imams, traditionally Sambi's
constituency (he is a Muslim cleric),said the President's attempt
to stay in office was illegal. Each time a Union Minister took the
podium to defend Sambi's desire to remain in office, he was shouted
down and the Dialogue chairman had to suspend the proceedings to
restore order.


7. (SBU) March 5 and 6 constitutional commission meetings were
attended by the leaders of all delegations -- clearly it was viewed
as the most important. There were numerous heated exchanges and the
Mohelian delegation finally walked out when the Union Ministers
insisted Sambi had the right to seek to extend his mandate. A/U SE
Madeira and Comoros Officer convinced the Mohelians to return for
the plenary. Union Chief of Cabinet Dossar became irate when one
civil society representative compared Sambi's referendum to
Anjouan's Mohamed Bacar staying in power in 2007 -- calling it an
insult.


8. (SBU) More generally, most Dialogue participants demonstrated
ignorance about the Comoran constitution and laws; international
legal experts frequently tried to guide the commission discussions

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and diplomatically point out erroneous legal assertions. Many
speakers insisted that Mayotte was the first and only problem in the
Comoros; that once France returned the island to Comoran
sovereignty, stability and prosperity would be automatic. Some
Comoran leaders disapproved of this simplistic view in private, but
did not dare say so in public - the Mayotte distraction is
illogical, impassioned, and incontrovertible to Comoran public
opinion.


9. (SBU) Finally and unfortunately, women were not heard at the
Dialogue. Despite a degree of economic empowerment in Comoran
society, women remain relegated in politics and public debate. Each
commission had female representatives present, but (by choice or
custom) contributed little. The UN's appointment of a female "local
expert" to one commission was barely tolerated. The one exception
was that the Dialogue's chief reporter responsible for editing the
final text was an influential woman, Amina Cheikh. Like elsewhere
in the developing world, this diminished voice was disproportionate
to women's responsibilities in the household and community in the
Comoros.

COMMENT:
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10. (SBU) The Inter-Comoran Dialogue's final report will serve as a
point of reference for all future political discussions in the
Comoros. Without persistent pressure from the African Union and
facilitation by several international partners, the Dialogue would
never have occurred. A growing number of Comorans, not just
politicians but also religious and civic leaders, are publicly
calling on President Sambi to not seek to extend his term in office.
No new date has been set for the constitutional referendum and it
is unclear to what extent the GOC will incorporate Dialogue
recommendations into their proposed revisions. The President and
his top Ministers appear confident following recent ceremonies with
Kuwaiti, Iranian, and other Gulf friends who will help them "build
Comoros." END COMMENT.

MARQUARDT