EAC CONVENED MARCH 9 TO DISCUSS TRIPWIRES,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000167


DEPT FOR DS, D, P, M, S/CT, CA, AND INR
DEPT FOR DS/AF/IP
DEPT FOR DS/ITA/AF
DEPT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2024
TAGS: ASEC CASC MP PGOV PREL PTER MA
SUBJECT: EAC CONVENED MARCH 9 TO DISCUSS TRIPWIRES,
AUTHORIZED DEPARTURE AND SECURITY FORCES ABILITY TO
MAINTAIN ORDER


1. (SBU) This information has previously been reported
through alternate channels. An Emergency Action Committee
(EAC),chaired by DCM Stromayer, was convened on March 9,
2009 at the DCR to review the trip wires in light of the
recent events and discuss the possibility of authorized
departure (AD). The ability of the local security forces to
maintain order is questionable, at best, given the mutiny of
a faction of the military and the disintegration of the EMMO
combined response team. EAC voted and strongly favored
recommending to the Ambassador that he should request
authorized departure status for the Mission.


2. (C) The DCM reported that there had clearly been a mutiny
among the military forces with those dissatisfied barricaded
in the Camp Capsat, the location of the majority of the
military's arsenal. During the day there had been a peaceful
rally at 13 Mai and looting at various stores outside of
town, including a major ex-pat grocery store and Indian owned
shops. Also of concern was the reference from the rally to a
three day countdown leading to some type of action on
Wednesday. A review of the Embassy tripwires shows that we
have now passed five (5) of those leading to AD with debate
about three (3) others. In addition, Post crossed three (3)
tripwires that would lead to ordered departure. The
electronic survey conducted by the DCM among the American
Mission revealed that, at this time, at least 20 people are
interested in AD. This is close to triple the amount who were
interested in the AD option a few weeks ago when a similar
survey was taken.


3. (C) DAO reported that EMMO forces had broken down into
three individual forces and were no longer working in a
coordinated fashion. Both the Ministry of Defense and the
Secretary General of the Ministerial Council would not speak
to DAO directly, but the conversation indicated that they
have no plans in place concerning the security of foreigners.
At present, the military is divided and has no effective
leadership. The president no longer trusts his military and
tried to send his presidential guard to obtain additional
weapons, but they were turned back at Camp Capsat. It was
also noted that military personnel who followed the orders of
the President to break up the rallies last week are being
personally threatened by TGV's forces so much so that they
were allowed to check out AK-47s and handguns to ensure the
safety of their families. The situation is fluid and it is
impossible to predict the status of the military and if they
will be able to respond to maintain order and security.

4.(C) RSO reported that it is not possible now to ensure
adequate Government of Madagascar security for the Embassy
community. Roadblocks are being randomly placed by the
opposition and are changed frequently, making routes for
moving through the city unpredictable. Fewer flights are now
scheduled to fly in and out of Antananarivo. Many of the
rallies take place within one mile of the Embassy. During the
last week, EMMO forces used tear gas and warning shots to
break up crowds for four consecutive days, with the crowds
sometimes moving directly past the Embassy warehouse.
Information provided by SD has been scaled back, somewhat, in
an attempt to better protect the safety of the SD members
after one member was arbitrarily arrested and subsequently a
victim of police brutality. There is a fragmentation of
security forces, with debates in loyalties or disagreement
about responsibilities. The military can no longer provide
any support. RSO strongly recommended that the Embassy
should move to authorized departure.

5 (C) RAO reported that the TGV rally at 13 Mai was peaceful
on Monday morning, with two or three thousand in attendance.
The president's rally had about the same number meeting at
the stadium and was also peaceful. In the area of the
looting, the area had many people, evidence of road blocks
and burning tires. However, security forces were present and
reinforcements arrived in military vehicles. The forces
restored order to the area.

6.(C) The Ambassador did not attend this EAC meeting, as
with short notice he went to the ceremony announcing the
convening of the National Consultative Conference (NCC),a
long awaited effort to end the crisis. Both sides had agreed
to this meeting.

7.(C) The EAC determined by a majority vote (12 for, two
against and one abstention) to recommend to the Ambassador
that he request authorized departure. The Embassy would be
opened for business as usual on Tuesday. Shuttles will run
to the Embassy leaving early to avoid congestion and crowds
in the downtown area. A town meeting for American mission
employees and family members will be held at the DCR on
Tuesday at 1630. A second meeting for the broader American
community will be held at the DCR on Wednesday at 1700.


MARQUARDT