MADAGASCAR: BACK TO THE BRINK -- BUT OF WHAT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000160

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STATE FOR AF/EPS AND AF/E - MBEYZEROV
USDOC FOR BECKY ERKUL - DESK OFFICER
TREASURY FOR FBOYE
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MEA UN
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: BACK TO THE BRINK -- BUT OF WHAT?

REF: ANTANANARIVO 154

ANTANANARI 00000160 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador, along with several other
Chiefs of Mission, today again urged the former Mayor and the
President to pursue dialogue, rather than violence, to find a
resolution to the current political conflict in Madagascar.
Reeling from an attack near and -- in his view -- on his
residence by GOM security forces during the night, a shaken
TGV made no promises, and questioned whether he would even
survive the day. For his part, the President came across as
increasingly hardened and intransigent in seeking to "restore
order" by force. Nevertheless, negotiations continued today
between representatives of the two principals to discuss the
modalities of a national consultative conference (NCC) to be
launched soon, possibly on March 12. It is unclear today
whether Madagascar is on the brink of a breakthrough through
an expanded dialogue, or of another descent into violance.
Another disquieting twist is the new and visible involvement
of foreign (mostly South African, but also Israeli and Dutch)
military advisers in the GOM's anti-protest efforts, which
unfortunately has increased the danger of an anti-foreign
backlash in the days to come. A new warden message warns
Americans of renwed tensions, and an EAC has been scheduled
for Tuesday. End summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador, along with seven other Chiefs of
Mission, met with a shaken former Mayor Andry "TGV" Rajoelina
this morning. This followed GOM forces' failed assault on
his residnce last night, which appears to have been an
attempt to arrest him. Rajoelina, holed up in his
well-guarded house, clearly believed that GOM forces were
still in his neighborhood waiting for an opportunity to
arrest or "eliminate" him. In fact, rather than continuing
the rally in the city center at the Place de 13 Mai as
planned, he called for all of his supporters to come to his
neighborhood today, presumably to create a human shield for
his protection. Unnerved by the night's events, TGV was
unable (or unwilling) to articulate the movement's plans for
Saturday and made no promises regarding the urging of the
COMs to refrain from taking drastic action that could result
in additional deaths, such as marching on the Iavaloho
Presidential Palace outside the city. The COMs further urged
TGV and his team to continue the dialogue as a way forward,
and to welcome expanding it to civil society under the
so-called NCC process. TGV argued that it wasn't possible to
negotiate while Malagasy are being "slaughtered in the
streets". His "Finance Minister" claimed that the only way
to force the President to listen was to freeze his assets in
Holland, Germany, and New York City (no further detail
provided),or to use the AU Qmmit, to which the President is
extremely attached, as leverage. TGV then produced copies of
legitimate-looking documents from the Presidency listing the
names of foreign "mercenaries" now in Madagascar advising the
GOM's mixed security forces, including approximately seven
South Africans, four Israelis, and one Dutch. (He promised
to provide copies, notably to the South African embassy.)
Pictures of these apparent military advisors have appeared in
the local press and TV and are generating a strongly negative
public reaction. The COMs cautioned TGV against making
statements that could fuel a popular backlash against
foreigners.


3. (C) Following the meeting with TGV, the COMs continued on
to what was a short meeting at Iavoloha with a visibly
uncomfortable President Ravalomanana; unlike the last
weeting, there was no jovial pretense of not being in the
midst of a crisis. The meeting went forward without EU
Ambassador Jean-Claude Boidin, whom Ravalomanana pointedly
disinvited less than one hour before the meeting for having
sought permission for a visit to recently-jailed ex-Minister
Rajivason in a local prison; he would have made that visit
with the US and UN COMs. The Dean (Vatican) opened with a
short statement of our continuing interest in finding a
peaceful solution through dialogue under UN and FFKM Church
Council auspices. The President expressed his gratitude for
the riot gear and training being "provided by SADC" and added
that he had spoken by phone last night with the King of

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Swaziland (current rotating SADC President),and promised him
a rapid restoration of order here. Ravalomanana also said he
was open to a widened dialogue but said he would want first
to approve the names of those included. Speaking next,
Ambassador Marquardt acknowledged the GOM's right to restore
order, but lamented that the situation in the city had
deteriorated rather than improved. The Ambassador also noted
the President's stated desire to regain donor confidence,
confirmed that donor confidence indeed has been severely
shaken, and stated that pursuing a successful dialogue
process with broadened participation was the only way to get
it back. The visibly angry president questioned the
ambassador's objectivity and suggested a lack of concern with
constitutional solutions, to which Ambassador Marquardt
reminded him that every diplomatic statement made so far had
stressed strongly and clearly the need for a constitutional
soluQon. The meeting then ended abruptly, with no other
interventions from other COMs. Afterwards the diplomats
raised with Foreign Minister Ranjeva our shared objections to
the unwarranted retribution against our EU colleague.



4. (C) Despite the intransigence of the two principals, their
negotiating teams have continued to meet every day under the
auspices of the FFKM Church Council. They have moved away
from discussing a bilaterally-negotiated settlement agreement
to talking about the modalities of a national consultative
conference (NCC) potentially to be launched on Thursday,
March 12. The NCC would include a broad array of political
and economic stakeholders. The FFKM said publicly on
Thursday that it was launching the NCC, but without much
detail. Presumably the two delegations are now discussing
proposed participation.


5. (C) Comment: The involvement of foreign advisers with the
GOM's movements to stifle civil disobedience has the
potential to cause a backlash against foreigners. Post is
issuing a revised warden message warning American citizens to
avoid unnecessary movements in the city this weekend, and we
plan to hold an EAC meeting to discuss this issue on Tuesday.
We continue to support a broad-based NCC as the only way to
resolve the underlying causes of the current conflict and
will continue to support the FFKM in this effort, both
financially and through public statements. End comment.
MARQUARDT