DIPLOMATS PRESS ON AS GOM CRACKS DOWN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000154

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: DIPLOMATS PRESS ON AS GOM CRACKS DOWN

REF: A. ANTANANARIVO 149

B. ANTANANARIVO 152

Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: As UN mediators and opposition leaders
coalesce around the idea of inclusive roundtable negotiations
to end the current political standoff, President Ravalomanana
has implemented increasingly harsh measures to stop protests
and reassert his control over Antananarivo. The diplomatic
community continues to press both sides for agreement on a
series of confidence-building measures, but neither the
president nor opposition leaders appear willing to restrain
themselves long enough for tempers to cool. The GOM has
responded to the daily protests in central Antananarivo with
an attempt today to prevent the gathering altogether; by
mid-afternoon, security forces were fending off crowds with
teargas and warning shots and the conflict had spread to
surrounding neighborhoods, although only one injury had been
reported at the time of writing. Combined with increased
arrests, the hasty acquisition of new riot gear, and
Ravalomanana's reticence to actively engage with the
political process, it appears that the GOM sees little need
for compromise. UN Senior Mediator Tiebile Drame, arriving
today, has inherited a very sticky situation. END SUMMARY.

DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS
--------------


2. (C) UN Envoy Menkerios and key ambassadors have been
pushing to improve the negotiating climate by calling on both
sides to accept several key confidence-building measures. Of
the GOM, they have requested the following:
- Allow the opposition access to public radio (RNM) and
television (TVM);
- Release politically held prisoners (notably ex-Minister
Theodore Ranjivason) and arrest no others, pending the launch
of an independent investigation into the scores of deaths
since the crisis began;
- Withdraw the illegally-appointed PDS in Antananarivo (who
was installed to replace Rajoelina);
- Guarantee the rights of free speech and assembly;
- Abstain from using arms on civilians.
The US, German, EU and French COMs jointly raised the
security-related points above in a call on Minister of
Internal Security Desire Rasolofomanana; he listened
carefully, but then made clear that restoring order would be
the GOM's priority, even if stopping looting might infringe
on the right of assembly. He also stressed the fact that no
police authorization had been requested, or granted, for the
demonstrations on the public place, which makes them illegal.


3. (C) The same four COMs delivered a separate demarche to
Rajoelina, focusing on the following points:
- Commit to respecting the rule of law, and to resolving this
crisis through dialogue;
- Choose between remaining Mayor of Antananarivo, or becoming
"President of the High Transitional Authority" - one person
can't hold both positions;
- Stop, and publicly condemn, all provocations and acts of
looting and destruction;
- Refrain from provocative propaganda;
- Push for the adoption and implementation by the GOM of
measures to alleviate hardship due to the steep rise is
staple commodity prices and unemployment.
While Rajoelina seemed receptive in the meeting and agreed
(at the time) to avoid provocation, he did just the opposite
on the square yesterday. During his speech from Place de 13
Mai, Rajoelina decried Ravalomanana's "killing and betrayal",
denounced his leadership of the country, and called on
opposition supporters to keep protesting. He called for the
foreign management of Jirama (the state utility company) to
be removed, and for civil servants to walk out of their
ministries and join them on the street (with banners
identifying their ministry, ideally). "The fight shall
overcome", and "the dictatorship shall end" he declared; it
is not clear how that squares with his conversation the
previous day.

PROVOCATION AND CRACKDOWN
--------------


4. (C) In a document dated February 28, Rajoelina outlined
his own specific prerequisites to further negotiation, which
match almost exactly those that the COMs delivered to GOM

ANTANANARI 00000154 002 OF 002


interlocutors. Unfortunately for the prospects of dialogue,
however, he appears unwilling or unable to control his own
supporters, making it unlikely that he will uphold his side
of the bargain. Protests continued at the University of
Antananarivo with further roadblocks and clashes with
security forces, and several provincial capitals have seen
violent demonstrations in recent days that could easily
reignite. In an attempt to break what had become a daily
cycle of protests, speeches, scuffles with security forces,
and small-scale opportunistic looting, Ravalomanana has moved
to crack down on such activities.


5. (C) On the tactical level, Ravalomanana reportedly
personally ordered that today's rally on Place de 13 Mai be
prevented altogether; by 0730, police and gendarme (in their
new Chinese riot gear - see reftel B) had deployed all over
city center, surrounding the area where the rally was
scheduled to take place at 1000. The President had not
previously been so involved in the day to day operations of
the military, and sources indicate that he has recently gone
around top commanders who may disagree with his tactics,
reaching further down the chain of command instead to get his
orders out.


6. (C) The past few days have also seen an increase in
arrests of looters, as well as rumors that Rajoelina's
dynamic young MC and his political associate Alain Ramaroson
were to be arrested over the weekend. Opposition radio
stations VIVA and Antsiva have been effectively shut down;
VIVA's broadcast frequency has been jammed since around
February 27, and Antsiva has stopped broadcasting news after
receiving a warning letter from the Ministry of
Communications along with intermittent jamming.


7. (C) COMMENT: Ravalomanana's concerns about law and order
are real, but his tactics will do little to address the root
causes of civil disorder. His Minister for Internal Security
is clearly on board, although other ministers (including
Communications and Finance) seem to be dodging meeting
requests from the COMs. It seems clear that Ravalomanana and
the GOM are not in listening mode with respect to the
international community's appeal for calming and
confidence-building measures to restore and enhance a
favorable climate for a negotiated solution. With increasing
unrest in Tana and elsewhere around the country, frequent
looting on the margins of demonstrations, and possible
fragmentation of the opposition's alliance, he has legitimate
reasons to consider law and order alongside political
dialogue. The fear, however, is that he's focusing on the
former at the expense of the latter. END COMMENT.
MARQUARDT