Inter-Comoran Dialogue Opens

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000153

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EAID ECON CN
SUBJECT: Inter-Comoran Dialogue Opens


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Union Vice President Idi Nadhoim, speaking on
behalf of the Head of State, officially opened the Inter-Comoran
Dialogue March 3. African Union Special Envoy Madeira hailed
Comorans for their historic decision to meet in order to advance
reconciliation. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Over 50 Comoran leaders participated March 3 in the
opening ceremony and initial talks of the long-awaited
"Inter-Comoran Dialogue." Present were Union of the Comoros
officials (though not President Sambi, yet),island presidents of
Grande Comore and Moheli, president of the National Assembly,
politicians, elder leader "Notables," Imams, civil society,
diaspora, and private sector associations.


3. (SBU) AU Special Envoy Madeira and all of us in the international
community who worked through the weekend would like to think our
skill and tenacity finally succeeded. In reality, the breakthrough
came with the Constitutional Court's shocking decision March 2 that
President Sambi's decree calling for the referendum was illegal,
null, and void. With the opposition's main complaint thus
eliminated, and the GOC still willing, we were able to convene March
3 before anyone else thought of another excuse to delay. (NOTE:
Sambi's referendum decree is fraught with prima facie irregularities
that even the pro-Sambi Court may have had trouble ignoring.
Another possibility is that Sambi actually condoned the Court's
decision, because he may have failed to raise the 400,000 euros
needed to pay for the referendum. END NOTE).


4. (SBU) Presidential Cabinet Director Dossar told us on March 2
that President Sambi will take part in some part of the dialogue and
meet directly with heads of delegations. Comoros Officer contacted
Presidential Advisor Nakchamy Nailini to emphasize the importance of
Sambi's presence. Aside from uncertainty of the Head of State's
participation in a dialogue about the fate of the country, there are
several minor issues lingering. One opposition leader, former
Minister Ibrahim Halidy, was prevented by police in Anjouan from
boarding his plane to Moroni. The AU is seeking approval for him to
travel. The opposition continues to insist that the Assembly of
Grande Comore participate in the Dialogue (each island has its own
parliament); which is problematic because the mandates of the island
assemblies of Moheli and Anjouan lapsed in 2007 so they cannot
legitimately participate. The pro-Sambi president of Anjouan,
Moussa Toybou, was absent without explanation, but is
well-represented by his colleagues.

Dialogue Themes
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5. (SBU) The dialogue will focus on governance, institutional
reform, and constitutional texts. Comorans from across the
political spectrum agree the 2001 constitution is imperfect and in
need of reform. The differences arise in the timing and extent of
the revisions. With the facilitation of United Nations, African
Union, Francophonie, and Arab League mediation experts, participants
will work for the next several days to reach consensus and
recommendations in these three areas. Officially the Dialogue is
scheduled to conclude March 7, but given the late start we expect
participants may decide on their own to prolong the dialogue now
that it has begun.

COMMENT:
- - - - -


6. (SBU) Even though today marked only the end of the beginning, it
was an historic day for political reconciliation in the Comoros.
There is no guarantee they will reach agreement on anything major
and it remains almost certain that Sambi will still carry on with
his referendum. Still, today was the first time in over two years
that even the Union and two "opposition" island executives met. It
is also significant that religious, traditional, and civic leaders
were present - in many ways they are more responsible for and
accountable to the Comoran people than elected officials. Much work
remains to be done, but tensions have greatly eased. END COMMENT.

MARQUARDT