MINOR CABINET RESHUFFLE DIMINISHES PM'S ROLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000013

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: MINOR CABINET RESHUFFLE DIMINISHES PM'S ROLE

REF: A. 08 ANTANANARIVO 332

B. 08 ANTANANARIVO 849

C. 09 ANTANANARIVO 09

Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Ravalomanana started the new year
with a small cabinet reshuffle, announced on January 4,
transferring power away from Prime Minister Charles
Rabemananjara and towards the presidency. Coming amid
political turmoil in the capital (reftel B) and a series of
prison breaks around the country (reftel C),the changes have
been only one of several issues in a busy media week -- but
they represent a notable shift that may indicate waning
confidence in the PM. Officially, the reorganization was
done to enable the PM to focus on the June-July 2009 African
Union summit, and to appease the donor community. In fact,
this partially reverses the April 2008 reshuffle (reftel A)
when the PM was given the Ministry of Decentralization (in
addition to Interior, already in his charge),which he had
seen as a mandate to fuse the two ministries' missions. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Former Secretary of State for Internal Security
Desire Rasolofomanana has kept his job, but with an enhanced
title: he is now Minister of Internal Security, subordinate
to the president (he had previously answered to the Prime
Minister). His function remains unchanged, and the move is
largely administrative.


3. (SBU) Gervais Rakotonirina, General Secretary of the
Ministry of the Interior since 2005, takes over as Minister
of the Interior. He will remain subordinate to the PM, and
will spend the coming months focusing on a series of
sensitive election issues: repeat elections in overturned
mayoral races from 2008, possible first-time elections to
replace the 22 regional chiefs (who are currently appointed),
and growing calls for reforms to the national electoral
system. Rakotonirina is a graduate of Madagascar's Ecole
Nationale d'Administration, long time civil servant, and a
well-known embassy contact.


4. (SBU) Manasse Jean de la Croix Bezara, currently TIM-party
senator for Atsinanana Region, will become Minister of
Decentralization, and the ministry will move to the
presidency (as with the new Ministry of Internal Security).
Bezara was president of the committees for judicial issues,
territorial administration, defense, and security in the
senate, and is a favored member of the president's party. He
has already promised more training for regional chiefs, and
the creation of a common fund for regional development.


5. (C) COMMENT: Although outwardly just an administrative
reshuffle, these changes represent a significant shift of
power away from the Prime Minister, and may lend credibility
to recent rumors of his imminent replacement and falling-out
with Ravelomanana. Indeed, the fact that the changes were
announced while Rabemanenjara was on vacation in France only
intensified these perceptions. Henceforth, the PM will run
his government, with no additional portfolio
responsibilities. Decentralization has been a key element of
the president's development agenda, and the politics of
internal security have continually grown in importance over
the last year. While the removal of the Ministry of the
Interior from the PM's portfolio may presage a willingness to
move to the long-awaited election of regional chiefs, it may
also serve as an excuse to delay further key reforms such as
the creation of an independent electoral commission and a
revision of the electoral code (which remains the top demand
from the donor community).
MARQUARDT