Former Comoran President Azali Watching, Waiting

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000107

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EAID ECON CN
SUBJECT: Former Comoran President Azali Watching, Waiting


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Former Comoran President Azali told Comoros
Officer February 17 he is concerned about President Sambi's
"dangerous and unconstitutional" actions. He believes Sambi cares
too much about foreign friends (like Iran) and is losing touch with
the Comoran people; especially Imams who view Sambi's Shi'ism as an
affront to Comoran Sunni Islam. Azali said the African Union,
United Nations, France, and others were naove in their dealings with
Sambi; he called on the United States to talk bluntly to the
President about the dangers of his referendum. END SUMMARY.



2. (SBU) Former President Azali explained to Comoros Officer
February 17 a litany of offenses by his successor, President Sambi,
that he said endanger the unity and stability of the Comoros. By
naming four of seven judges to the Constitutional Court, Azali said
Sambi had already co-opted the judicial branch. Elections have
still not been held for island assemblies in Anjouan and Moheli;
Azali fears Sambi will similarly allow the mandates of the National
Assembly and Grande Comore deputies to lapse, thus freeing himself
of the checks of a legislative branch. Even while the National
Assembly still exists, Azali said, Sambi works around them, as he
did by promulgating the "economic citizenship law" without -- in his
view -- proper approval.


3. (SBU) Azali emphasized key proposed constitutional revisions
contained in Sambi's referendum, most notably an extension of his
term of office one year to 2011. "How can Mohelians (whose turn is
in 2010) be expected to react?" He further noted Sambi would have
the power to dissolve the National Assembly and reestablish the
Comoros as "an Islamic state." Azali said many changes,
rationalizing the power structures and even diminishing the role of
island presidents, were reasonable but untenable when the 12-year
experiment of rotating presidency was in mid-course. Many Comorans
have said it, but as the architect, Azali's comment carries weight,
"the Fomboni and Beit-Salaam agreements and 2001 constitution are
about unity and reconciliation - Sambi is jeopardizing that."


4. (SBU) While welcoming the role of the international community in
the Comoros (African Union and United Nations, especially the United
States, even France),Azali said they were naove in their dealings
with Sambi. AU S/E Madeira breezes into town, negotiates
commitments from everyone to dialogue, then leaves - only for Sambi
to break his word. Azali asked that the United States, either in
private or public, apply more pressure to Sambi or at least
encourage him to consider the consequences of his actions. Echoing
the opposition leaders, Azali accused Sambi of being detached from
the Comoran reality and alienating a growing number of influential
Comorans.


5. (SBU) Without intentional irony, Azali concluded that "Comorans
must take matters into their own hands." He said Sambi's referendum
contained changes he was not allowed to make, including interrupting
the rotating presidency. Azali did not believe Comoran political,
civic or religious leaders would allow the referendum to take place.
Nor, he thought, would they tolerate Sambi's assumption of greater
power if he did force his referendum through.


6. (SBU) Azali said he has three personal political choices to
make, as he also already decided to remain in the Comoros since
leaving office. One, he could offer advice to the current
government, but President Sambi, General Salimou, and other leaders
have never called on him - not even during the Anjouan crisis. Two,
he could join the political opposition, but he feels they are
fragmented and powerless. His political party colleagues would
participate, for example, in the expected February 18 meeting, but
Azali would not appear in person. The third option is to watch and
wait. Azali remains popular as the President who reunited the
Comoros and the first leader to voluntarily leave power


7. (SBU) Note: Colonel Azali Assoumany took power in a coup d'etat
in 1999, eventually ending Anjouan's secession and reuniting the
country. He negotiated the Fomboni and Beit-Salam agreements,
passed a new constitution in 2001, and was elected president in

2002. Respecting the constitution and rotating presidency, he
handed power to President Sambi in May; 2006, the only peaceful and
democratic transition in Comoran history. Azali's government was
reportedly rife with corruption and several officials were briefly
imprisoned in 2006. He founded the University of the Comoros in
2005 to create opportunity for young Comorans. Azali was, and
remains, eager for close ties with the United States, evidenced by
his cooperation in counterterrorism efforts, including expelling the
"Al-Haramain" Islamic charity, which was suspected of ties to
terrorism. End Note.

COMMENT:
- - - - -


8. (SBU) The February 18 rally, at which opposition, religious, and
traditional "notables" leaders are expected to stand together to
denounce Sambi as illegitimate, will be telling in this tense

ANTANANARI 00000107 002 OF 002


environment. The President is out of the country in Marseille
(where the diaspora reportedly booed him) and Senegal. AU S/E
Madeira is due back February 24 to moderate the dialogue February
27, but unless he has another ace up his sleeve, there are going to
be a lot of empty seats. Azali made no suggestion he would step in,
though he hinted at the risks of returning to power when peoples'
expectations are higher (citing Ratsiraka's last gQound in
Madagascar in Q late 1990s). Q there referendum leads toward
renewed crisis, as the opposition are promising, another option
would be for Azali to change his stance. END COMMENT.

MARQUARDT