Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ANTANANARIVO102
2009-02-17 04:51:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

Comoran Dialogue Finished Before It Begins (Again)

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL EAID ECON CN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000102 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EAID ECON CN
SUBJECT: Comoran Dialogue Finished Before It Begins (Again)

REF: A) 08 ANTAN 821
B) 08 ANTAN 683
C) 08 ANTAN 620

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000102

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EAID ECON CN
SUBJECT: Comoran Dialogue Finished Before It Begins (Again)

REF: A) 08 ANTAN 821
B) 08 ANTAN 683
C) 08 ANTAN 620


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: African Union Special Envoy Madeira obtained
agreement early this month from all Comoran stakeholders to convene
an Inter-Comoran Dialogue February 27 to March 4. A few days later,
President Sambi announced a date for his constitutional referendum
(March 22),at which point all the opposition leaders backed out of
the Dialogue. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) AU S/E Madeira appeared to have scored a major mediation
victory earlier this month when he obtained agreement from Comoran
President Sambi, the island presidents, and other stakeholders to
hold a long-awaited "Inter-Comoran Dialogue" (REF C) February 27 to
March 4 to discuss the constitution, institutions, and governance
(the modalities are outlined below in para 7). The United Nations
and La Francophonie were buying plane tickets for their mediators to
come help the AU team.


3. (SBU) A few days later, President Sambi announced his
(controversial) constitutional referendum would be held March 22
(REFS A AND B); and signed a procedurally questionable decree to
organize the vote before departing on his latest overseas trip. The
political opposition - Grande Comore Island President Abdouwahabi,
National Assembly President Bounou, Mayor's Association President
Mchamgama, former Foreign Minister Maecha - told Comoros Officer
February 16 that now they will boycott the Dialogue. A
representative of Moheli's island president Ali Said (the island
next up for the rotating presidency in 2010) agreed, noting that
Sambi's referendum includes a proposed extension of his term by one
year to 2011, which would delay Moheli's turn.


4. (SBU) By setting the March 22 referendum date, opposition leaders
believe, President Sambi has made clear the Dialogue would serve no
purpose. They also note the President's insistence that he will
have "the last word" and conclude the Dialogue's recommendations
would not be binding or respected. They said Sambi's referendum
threatens national unity and stability by prolonging his mandate in
office and denying Moheli its turn in the rotation.



5. (SBU) The same opposition leaders went further to argue many of
Sambi's revisions are unconstitutional, his leadership of the
country is dangerous, and that he is illegitimate. Among the
proposed revisions, they said, includes language calling for
imprisonment for actions or statements in favor of secession. They
believe Sambi would use this "vague" provision to silence all
opponents. Island president Abdouwahabi again criticized Sambi for
his "illegal" promulgation of the economic citizenship law. The
"pro-Sambi" Anjouanese president Toybou recently criticized Sambi
publicly, saying "the 400,000 euros spent on the referendum is
wasted when poor Anjouanese still suffer."


6. (SBU) Mchamgama, Maecha, and supporters told Comoros Officer they
would actively block the constitutional referendum from taking
place. While Sambi has the right to revise the constitution, they
said, he cannot ignore procedure, extend his mandate, diminish
island autonomy, and consolidate "dictatorial powers." They believe
Sambi will use the military to organize the election. In response
to Comoros Officer's question, they acknowledged the possibility of
violence, adding, "we will not be intimidated."

Dialogue Format
- - - - - - - -


7. (U) Were it to happen, which now seems unlikely unless Sambi
agrees to postpone the referendum, the modalities of the February 27
to March 4 Inter-Comoran Dialogue were agreed as follows:

-- Discuss and recommend solutions for problems of institutions,
governance, and the constitution;

-- Include representatives of: the Union (4),Grande Comore (3),
Anjouan (3),Moheli (3),pro-Sambi politicians (9),opposition
politicians (9),NGOs (6; two per island),unions (3; one per
island),private sector (3; one per island),Imams (6; two per
island),and traditional leaders "notables" (6; two per island);

-- The African Union, United Nations, and La Francophonie would
participate as facilitators;

-- President Sambi would name a Dialogue Chairman, supported by
five Vice-Chairs representing the Union, three islands, and National
Assembly, who would organize commissions on topics, manage the
agenda, and summarize recommendations.

COMMENT:
- - - - -


8. (SBU) While disappointing, most of this would seem to be a new

ANTANANARI 00000102 002 OF 002


verse of the same old song. However, Sambi may be overreaching.
While most opposition leaders are stubborn and prone to
exaggeration, Mchamgama is serious and reasonable - he works with
Mayors because communities actually improve Comorans' lives while
their Union and island fail them. He gravely assured Comoros
officer that Sambi's actions were "dangerous for the country."
Mchamgama also suggested ominously that his opposition colleagues
may take inspiration from the ongoing crisis in Madagascar. END
COMMENT.

MARQUARDT