TURKEY: MUBARAK VISIT YIELDS A PROFFERED EMBRACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001834

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2019
TAGS: TU EG IS PREL IR
SUBJECT: TURKEY: MUBARAK VISIT YIELDS A PROFFERED EMBRACE

REF: ANKARA 1745

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Egyptian President Mubarak's visit to Ankara
December 15-16 focused on bilateral ties and the Middle East
during lengthy separate discussions with President Gul, Prime
Minister Erdogan, Deputy PM Babacan, FM Davutoglu, and
Turkish General Staff (TGS) Chief Basbug. Although the
Turkish media reported that Palestine was the main topic,
Egyptian Embassy DCM Salama told us that bilateral trade,
visa issues, and a Turkish proposal for a bilateral
"strategic council" also were on the agenda. On the
Palestinian issue, both sides expressed skepticism about the
current Israeli leadership, but both underscored their
support for Palestine Authority President Abbas as the sole
leader of the Palestinians, according to Salana and the MFA.
Both sides agreed that Iran must cooperate with the
international community and forgo nuclear aspirations.
Salama said both sides reiterated their opposition to a
military option in dealing with Iran. Both sides were
pleased with the dramatic increase in bilateral trade. The
GOT proposed that visa requirements be lifted; the Egyptians
said they would "look into it." The GOT also proposed that
the "strategic dialogue" mechanism between the two countries
be elevated to a "strategic council." DCM Salama seemed
dubious about the efficacy of the proposed council. Although
nothing was signed, the working visit is being described as
positive. FM Davutoglu is planning a visit to Egypt in
February of 2010 and the strategic council and visa regime
will be on the agenda. END SUMMARY


2. (C) In his second visit to Turkey during 2009, Egyptian
President Mubarak arrived in Ankara December 15 for a 24-hour
blitz that produced a lengthy meeting with President Gul,
complete with ceremonial trappings, and a series of separate
discussions December 16 with PM Erdogan, Deputy PM Babacan,
FM Davutoglu, and TGS Chief Basbug. In a side meeting, FM
Davutoglu met with Egyptian FM Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Egypt's
Chief of Intelligence Omar Suleiman. According to a readout
from Egyptian DCM Amal Salama, the Mubarak working visit
resulted in a positive exchange of views that yielded "no
disagreements." In a separate briefing, Sinan Ertay in the
MFA's Egypt office also described the visit as positive but
did note that the two sides had disagreed on Cyprus. Ertay
said that the GOT asked the GOE to be more "favorable and
objective" on this issue.

Agreed Support for Abbas
--------------


3. (C) DCM Salama said that neither side was optimistic about
the situation in Palestine or the current Israeli leadership.
Salama said that although the GOT has been supportive of
Hamas -- in contrast to Cairo's stance -- this was not viewed
as a problem since both countries underscored their support
for Palestinian Authority President Abbas, as the sole leader
of the Palestinians. Ertay said that the GOT appreciates the
GOE's traditional leadership role in the Middle East, but
also noted that the Egyptian Government appears to be
"frustrated with the Israeli position." Ertay also noted
Egyptian Chief of Intelligence Omar Suleiman's December 20
visit to Israel. These confidence building measures are to
continue in January 2010 when Suleiman is scheduled to meet
with both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. Ertay said
there was no talk of further coordination between the GOT and
GOE on Palestinian reconciliation.


4. (C) The GOT and GOE were in full agreement with regard to
Iran. Neither side wanted to see a nuclear Iran. Ertay said
that the GOE was in an awkward position because it does not
have diplomatic relations with Iran. The GOE is trying to
normalize relations, but the issue is still problematic.
Salama noted that the GOT still insisted that FM Davutoglu
could work something out with Iran on its nuclear impasse,
but she was skeptical.


5. (C) Both sides touted the dramatic increase in bilateral
trade in the two years since signing a Free Trade Agreement.
Trade has increased from $800 million in 2007 to $2.5 billion
in the first nine months of 2009. The total for 2009 is
expected to top $3 billion. Some 260 Turkish firms (mostly
in textiles) are currently active in Egypt. The Sixth of
October City was cited by Ertay as an example of an area with
a heavy concentration of Turkish economic involvement.


6. (C) Visas were one issue where the two sides seemed out of
step. Salama said that the GOT had surprised their Egyptian
guests by proposing that the visa requirement between the two

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countries be lifted. She said she had guessed this might be
raised, given the trend in Ankara's treatment of its regional
neighbors, but had not been given any advance warning. The
GOE did not commit to any decision, stating only that they
were still "looking at it."

Proposal to Elevate the Dialogue
--------------


7. (C) Salama said that the GOT also said it was interested
in elevating the existing "strategic dialogue" mechanism
between the FMs of Egypt and Turkey to a "strategic council"
format. Salama did not seem enthused, and intimated that
this may be excessive given the existing strategic dialogue
mechanism which has been in place for two years. Ertay was
more upbeat about the prospects of the proposed council,
which he said both sides had agreed to in principle. This
council would elevate the dialogue to the PM level and also
include other ministries. He told us that there would be
some developments in early 2010. FM Davutoglu is planning to
visit Egypt in February of 2010 to discuss the same issues.


8. (C) In a separate meeting, Egyptian Embassy First
Secretary Mohamed Moussa also derided the proposed council as
an unnecessary move and told us that this is the prevailing
sentiment in Cairo. Moussa said that Turkey has proposed
such strategic councils with so many countries as to render
them meaningless. Still, he suggested that the GOE is likely
to go along only because it would not represent any dramatic
change from the existing framework. He complained that
Turkey seems to have a penchant for raising the same issues
(i.e., waiving visa requirements and strategic
cooperation/councils) with every country. On the proposed
lifting of the visa regime, Moussa said the GOE will not be
inclined to take action in the near future.


9. (C) COMMENT: Although the Turkish media and GOT
representatives are touting President Mubarak's working visit
as positive and successful, and the Egyptians appreciated the
protocol concessions of having all the GOT officials except
Gul come to Mubarak in his hotel suite, the prevailing tone
seems to have been correct but decidedly cool. The Turkish
MFA acknowledges that Egypt remains a heavyweight in the
region, but believes that Turkey's profile is more dynamic
and increasingly more influential.
SILLIMAN

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