Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ANKARA1754
2009-12-09 16:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:
AZERBAIJAN EMBASSY PLANS TO LOBBY AGAINST PROTOCOLS
how-toVZCZCXYZ0000 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHAK #1754 3431647 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 091647Z DEC 09 FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1430 INFO RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU PRIORITY 1642 RUEHYE/AMEMBASSY YEREVAN PRIORITY 1395
C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001754
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2019
TAGS: AJ AM PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN EMBASSY PLANS TO LOBBY AGAINST PROTOCOLS
REF: A. ANKARA 1705
B. ANKARA 1537
Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001754
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2019
TAGS: AJ AM PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN EMBASSY PLANS TO LOBBY AGAINST PROTOCOLS
REF: A. ANKARA 1705
B. ANKARA 1537
Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: The Azerbaijan Embassy was shocked by what it
perceived as lukewarm support from the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) and the Turkish public for
Azerbaijan's perspective on the Armenia Protocols, and plans
to increase its public diplomacy efforts and take its case
directly to the Turkish people. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) In a recent meeting, Azerbaijani diplomat Itibar
Memmedov told us that his Embassy, under previous
governments, was assured of consideration for the Azerbaijani
position, and never had to do anything additional to secure
government support. However, with reference to the Erdogan
government, particularly in the last few years, he
complained: "We don't understand what the AK Party is doing,"
with their domestic initiatives or relations with Armenia.
"They are just creating instability and chaos." Despite the
Embassy's unhappiness with the ruling party, Memmedov said he
expected good relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan to
continue. "Don't confuse Turkey with the AK Party," he told
us, "Governments will change but the sentiments of the people
toward each other remain."
3. (C) However, the Embassy has been disappointed with what
they perceived as a lack of strong Turkish public opposition
to the Turkey-Armenia Protocols. "We expected 70 million
Turks to be our diaspora," Memmedov told us. The lack of
stronger public opposition has prompted the Embassy to decide
it must take its case directly to the Turkish people.
Memmedov said they are planning to establish an Azerbaijani
lobby in Turkey, which will target both the government and
the public. They plan to support the lobby in a low key,
quiet way. He said they will focus on working with Turkish
think tanks, probably by providing them with information from
Azerbaijan, and on organizing cultural events such as movies
and symposiums.
4. (C) When we asked how long it would take to set up an
effective lobby, he answered only "time is limited."
Memmedov said that although things now seem quiet in the
Turkish government, he believes the GOT sees April 24
approaching and will make some movement towards ratification
before this date. When we asked if anything might make
ratification palatable, he said withdrawal from the five
rayon would be a minimum precondition. However, he was
dubious about the prospect of any movement on this front,
commenting that he sees the Minsk Group as ineffective.
5. (C) In stark contrast to Memmedov, Turkish MFA Caucasus
desk officer Ela Beskardes told us Turkish public opinion
remains a huge impediment in the GOT's ability to move
forward with the protocols. She agreed with Memmedov that,
overall, Turkish relations with Azerbaijan are positive. But
her perception of Turkish public support for Azerbaijan
differed from Memmedov's. She said the Turkish people do in
fact strongly support Azerbaijan and this presents
difficulties for the GOT. The MFA and GOT want to move
forward with normalization but have to consider public
opinion. Without such strong public sentiment for
Azerbaijan, she said, Ankara would have a much easier time in
ratifying the protocols.
6. (C) COMMENT: We tend to agree with the MFA that the
Turkish public is overwhelmingly skeptical about the Armenia
Protocols, particularly absent substantial traction on
Nagorno-Karabakh. Recent public opinion polls seem to
support us. One poll cited by an influential journalist
showed only 28 percent of respondents in favor of
Turkey-Armenia rapprochement (REF A). It is striking that
the Azerbaijan Embassy interprets this as "lukewarm" support
for Azerbaijan's position, and feels compelled to take action
-- which will only increase the challenge confronting the
GOT's ratification efforts.
Silliman
"Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s
gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2019
TAGS: AJ AM PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN EMBASSY PLANS TO LOBBY AGAINST PROTOCOLS
REF: A. ANKARA 1705
B. ANKARA 1537
Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: The Azerbaijan Embassy was shocked by what it
perceived as lukewarm support from the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) and the Turkish public for
Azerbaijan's perspective on the Armenia Protocols, and plans
to increase its public diplomacy efforts and take its case
directly to the Turkish people. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) In a recent meeting, Azerbaijani diplomat Itibar
Memmedov told us that his Embassy, under previous
governments, was assured of consideration for the Azerbaijani
position, and never had to do anything additional to secure
government support. However, with reference to the Erdogan
government, particularly in the last few years, he
complained: "We don't understand what the AK Party is doing,"
with their domestic initiatives or relations with Armenia.
"They are just creating instability and chaos." Despite the
Embassy's unhappiness with the ruling party, Memmedov said he
expected good relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan to
continue. "Don't confuse Turkey with the AK Party," he told
us, "Governments will change but the sentiments of the people
toward each other remain."
3. (C) However, the Embassy has been disappointed with what
they perceived as a lack of strong Turkish public opposition
to the Turkey-Armenia Protocols. "We expected 70 million
Turks to be our diaspora," Memmedov told us. The lack of
stronger public opposition has prompted the Embassy to decide
it must take its case directly to the Turkish people.
Memmedov said they are planning to establish an Azerbaijani
lobby in Turkey, which will target both the government and
the public. They plan to support the lobby in a low key,
quiet way. He said they will focus on working with Turkish
think tanks, probably by providing them with information from
Azerbaijan, and on organizing cultural events such as movies
and symposiums.
4. (C) When we asked how long it would take to set up an
effective lobby, he answered only "time is limited."
Memmedov said that although things now seem quiet in the
Turkish government, he believes the GOT sees April 24
approaching and will make some movement towards ratification
before this date. When we asked if anything might make
ratification palatable, he said withdrawal from the five
rayon would be a minimum precondition. However, he was
dubious about the prospect of any movement on this front,
commenting that he sees the Minsk Group as ineffective.
5. (C) In stark contrast to Memmedov, Turkish MFA Caucasus
desk officer Ela Beskardes told us Turkish public opinion
remains a huge impediment in the GOT's ability to move
forward with the protocols. She agreed with Memmedov that,
overall, Turkish relations with Azerbaijan are positive. But
her perception of Turkish public support for Azerbaijan
differed from Memmedov's. She said the Turkish people do in
fact strongly support Azerbaijan and this presents
difficulties for the GOT. The MFA and GOT want to move
forward with normalization but have to consider public
opinion. Without such strong public sentiment for
Azerbaijan, she said, Ankara would have a much easier time in
ratifying the protocols.
6. (C) COMMENT: We tend to agree with the MFA that the
Turkish public is overwhelmingly skeptical about the Armenia
Protocols, particularly absent substantial traction on
Nagorno-Karabakh. Recent public opinion polls seem to
support us. One poll cited by an influential journalist
showed only 28 percent of respondents in favor of
Turkey-Armenia rapprochement (REF A). It is striking that
the Azerbaijan Embassy interprets this as "lukewarm" support
for Azerbaijan's position, and feels compelled to take action
-- which will only increase the challenge confronting the
GOT's ratification efforts.
Silliman
"Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s
gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"