TURKISH MFA SEES CYPRUS TALKS AS GLASS HALF FULL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001718

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019
TAGS: CY PREL TU UNFICYP US
SUBJECT: TURKISH MFA SEES CYPRUS TALKS AS GLASS HALF FULL

REF: ANKARA 1644

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons: 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. The MFA's Deputy Director General for Cyprus
told us December 2 that Ankara is still waiting for a reply
from Athens to PM Erdogan's proposal for quadrilateral talks
on a Cyprus settlement, but that Turkey is newly optimistic
about the prospects for a solution after the November 18
hearing in the European Court of Human Rights. That hearing
focused on the "TRNC" mechanism for resolving Greek Cypriot
property claims, and the MFA believes the court showed it
leans toward the Turkish Cypriot argument that the mechanism
is both fair and adequate. A ruling is expected in March.
The MFA views property as the key element in the
negotiations, and is working out financing mechanisms for
compensation, but notes that Greek Cypriots must be
"realistic" about the current market value of their
properties in the north. The MFA believes the two sides are
sufficiently close on issues such as governance and
power-sharing. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In a December 2 meeting, MFA Deputy Director General
for Cyprus and Greece Kerim Uras said Ankara's attitude
toward the Cyprus negotiations received a substantial boost
from the April 18 hearings at the European Court of Human
Rights, given what they perceive as the Court's apparent
sympathy for the "TRNC" mechanism to deal with Greek Cypriot
property claims. Uras said he views property as the key
element of the Cyprus talks. If the court ruling, expected
in March, favors the Turkish Cypriot side it would contribute
significantly to a successful outcome of the negotiations,
Uras contended. He added that a contrary ruling would have
dire consequences not only on the talks but also on Turkey's
orientation toward Europe.

Financing for Compensation Claims
--------------


3. (C) Uras said the MFA is working on a plan to provide
financing via Turkish banks for Greek Cypriots whose property
claims are settled by compensation. He said Ankara envisions
that roughly one third of the claims would be resolved
through compensation, one third by exchanges, and one third
by returnees. The bank financing would allow Greek Cypriots
who agree on compensation to be paid immediately, if they so
choose, but would also enable them to wait until the market
value of the property rises as expected several years after
the island is reunited. Uras said the key at this point is
for Greek Cypriots to be "realistic" about the current market
value of their properties, which lag at about 30 percent of
property values in southern Cyprus.


4. (C) With property issues resolved, Uras said he believes
the two sides are well within compromise range on issues such
as power-sharing and governance. The current disconnect on
direct versus indirect election of the president and vice
president can be bridged fairly easily. He conceded,
however, that the National Unity Party's (UBP) view on this
issue differs markedly from "TRNC President" Talat's, and
said this division had been on display during the December 1
visit to Ankara by Talat and the "TRNC Foreign Minister."
Uras said Talat feels his position is being constantly
undermined by UBP "Prime Minister" Eroglu, and that this was
the main reason behind his recent trip to Ankara: to complain
to PM Erdogan. Talat and Erdogan had a lengthy one-on-one
meeting; Uras did not know the result. Uras denied that
Talat returned to Cyprus with a dramatic "new proposal," as
media reports had trumpeted.


6. (C) On the duration of the talks, Uras said Ankara still
holds the view that the negotiations should conclude by early
March, given the April "TRNC Presidential" elections. But he
added that even in the "worst case scenario" of an Eroglu
victory, Ankara would not abandon the talks but would instead
insist that they continue under a mechanism that allowed for
Eroglu's lack of English, perhaps through an appointed
representative. He noted that the latest Turkish Cypriot
polls show rising support for Talat, probably because voters
have seen no discernible difference in the economy or public
services from the UBP since it took over as the new ruling
party.

"Bizonal, Bicommunal" Stance Restored
--------------


7. (C) Uras confirmed that FM Davutoglu had agreed to the EU
Troika's request to issue a statement November 26 reiterating
Turkey's support for a "bizonal, bicommunal federation based
on political equality." The "bizonal, bicommunal" phrasing
had been avoided during the tenure of previous MFA
Undersecretary Apakan, Uras said, because Apakan had argued
that the Turkish Cypriots should be seen as a "people," and
not a "community," to ensure their sovereign rights. The
current MFA regime has no such qualms. We pressed Uras to
recommend that PM Erdogan make the same public statement. He
had no objection.


8. (C) We also urged that PM Erdogan underscore in public his
proposal for quadrilateral discussions contained in his
recent letter to Greek PM Papandreou. (Note: The British
have made a separate proposal for trilateral talks. End
Note) We added that PM Erdogan should also reiterate
Turkey's commitment to a massive troop withdrawal from Cyprus
in the event of a solution, and its willingess to review and
revise the Turkish guarantee after a settlement. Uras saw no
problem with the first two suggestions, but said it would be
premature to broach the guarantee now. That would have to
wait until later in the negotiating process. On regional
discussions, he said Ankara would prefer a quadrilateral
approach, because it wants to have direct discussions with
Greek Cypriot leader Christofias -- but without undercuttting
Talat.


9. (C) Uras acknowledged the optical value in such statements
by PM Erdogan, but was dismissive of the potential threat of
a harsh EU Progress Report or a Greek Cypriot block on
Turkey's Environment Chapter. Ankara is convinced that a
rollover of the Additional Ankara Protocol is well in hand,
he said, and is also not worried about seeing its EU
accession process grind to a halt on December 21 if the
Environment Chapter is not opened. The EU process is already
in trouble, he said, so there is no reason to be fearful. He
used a well-known Turkish proverb: "The dead donkey does not
fear the wolf."


10. (C) On a side note, Uras said the Greek Cypriots had
applied much pressure on Syria to halt the Latakia-Famagusta
ferry, but that the Syrians had refused, and the ferry
continues to operate. In addition, the Haifa-Famagusta ferry
will soon resume, despite GOC objections to the Israeli
Government. Uras suggested that these "signals" to the Greek
Cypriots, in addition to the recent undercurrents at the EU
Court of Human Rights, may have convinced the Greek Cypriots
to be more conciliatory -- which in turn is giving Ankara
renewed hope that a settlement may indeed be within reach.

JEFFREY

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