TURKEY TRYING TO KEEP ITS INFLUENCE IN BOSNIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001651

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU BK GR
SUBJECT: TURKEY TRYING TO KEEP ITS INFLUENCE IN BOSNIA

REF: ANKARA 1618

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Turkey is trying to keep a foot in the
Balkans with its position that Bosnia-Herzegovina (BIH) is
not ready to close its Office of the High Representative
(OHR) and transition to a reinforced EU Special
Representative (EUSR),despite supporting BIH's
constitutional reform efforts and NATO membership
aspirations. Turkey and the Organization of the Islamic
Conference (OIC) are in lockstep on BIH policy since Ankara
is representing the OIC in all of its negotiations in the
Peace Implementation Council (PIC) meetings. The OIC Bosnia
Contact Group judges that BIH does not have enough political
stability to make the transition. Turkey plans to present
this position before the November 18 PIC meeting. However,
Turkey continues to support extending the NATO Membership
Action Plan to BIH in a package with that of Montenegro
(REFTEL) and EU integration down the road. End Summary.


2. (C) According to Turkish MFA contacts, Turkey still fears
being left out of the EU-led Bosnia stabilization process,
despite USG efforts to secure for the Turks the same status
enjoyed by Russia and the US. (Comment: The OHR's closure is
a requirement by the PIC for BIH's EU integration. End
Comment) The Turkish MFA and the Egyptian Embassy stated
that Turkey, as the OIC president, is working as a conduit
for the OIC and therefore both have the same position on BIH,
particularly since neither wants to be left out of the
process after the OHR transition. Our Turkish MFA contact
told us Turkey is willing to work with the EU, Russia, and
the US to move the process forward but emphasized that the EU
must include Turkey indefinitely as a stakeholder, especially
considering Turkey's history and connection with the region.
(Comment: Turkey was offended that it was left out of the
initial BIH EU integration talks and continues to distrust EU
intentions. End Comment)


3. (C) The Turkish MFA's Guclu Kalafat told us that Turkey
has supported the OIC's resurrection of the Bosnia Contact
Group from the early 1990's. He supplied a draft report of
the OIC's Bosnia Contact Group meeting in Istanbul on
November 9. Key excerpts included:

-- Failure of Dayton Peace Agreement Implementation: The
Contact Group found that the BIH's lack of implementation of
some key elements of the Dayton Peace Agreement--
particularly relating to the right of the refugees to
return-- have obstructed the process of reconstruction,
democratization, and reintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

-- Closure of OHR: The OIC Group recommends that any early
step for the transition from the OHR to the EUSR should be
"carefully considered" because it has not found that the 5 2
objectives and conditions -- a stable political situation and
the functionality of central government -- identified by the
PIC in February 2008 meeting have been fully met. Moreover,
the OIC claims the constitutional reform package has not been
endorsed by all BIH stakeholders.

-- Turkey's role: The OIC expressed its appreciation to FM
Davutoglu for Turkey's active engagement in BIH and on behalf
of the OIC Contact Group in the PIC Steering Board
proceedings.


4. (C) Turkey and the OIC are keeping engaged with the
Bosniaks because of their close ties. Kalafat said the OIC
naturally favors the Bosniaks because they preserve the
interests of the Muslim community. He stated that although
Turkey talks to all parties, it frequently communicates with
the Bosniak leader, Haris Silajdzic. Both the MFA and the
Egyptian Embassy said that Silajdzic attended and spoke at
the last two contact group meetings to brief on the current
situation in BIH.


5. (C) The MFA envisions BIH entering into NATO before the EU
since, it contends, BIH is not ready to transition to EUSR.
Kalafat said Turkey is planning to bring up Bosnia's
Membership Action Plan application at the December 2-4 NATO
ministerial and strongly encouraged the US to follow suit.

ANKARA 00001651 002 OF 002




6. (C) Turkey expects to raise its objection to the closure
of the OHR at the next PIC meeting beginning on November 18.
Turkey does not have a date in mind when the BIH would be
ready for transition, which we emphasized is worrisome
considering the PIC would like the transition to be completed
six months before BIH enters elections in October 2010. The
next session of the OIC Bosnia Contact Group is planning to
convene at the ambassadorial level in Sarajevo. (Note: No
date was specified. End Note)


7. (C) Comment: It is instructive that the MFA has just
formed a separate directorate for the Balkans, which
previously was folded into the European directorate. Turkey
continues to register its commitment to stability in the
Balkans, but is also emphasizing its insistence upon being
included indefinitely in the decision-making progress --
particularly with respect to BIH. While Turkey says it is
talking to all parties, it and the OIC definitely have a
stronger connection with Siladjzic, which may not help the
process progress. Turkey is supportive of BIH's NATO
integration because, as a NATO member, it feels it can
champion BIH's cause. Its inability, however, to do so with
the EU negotiations has Ankara and the OIC scrambling not to
be left out.

JEFFREY

"Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s
gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"