Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ANKARA1590
2009-11-05 09:12:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

STANDSTILL LOOMS FOR TURKEY'S EU ACCESSION BID

Tags:  PGOV PREL TU 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001590 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: STANDSTILL LOOMS FOR TURKEY'S EU ACCESSION BID

REF: ANKARA 1568

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001590

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: STANDSTILL LOOMS FOR TURKEY'S EU ACCESSION BID

REF: ANKARA 1568

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Turkey is on track to open the Environment
Chapter under the Swedish EU presidency, but has run out of
"easy" technical chapters to open after the beginning of 2010
and could face a standstill in its EU accession bid. Ankara
already has abandoned its previous policy of trying to open
two chapters per presidency. The flagging momentum has much
to do with the eight chapters officially frozen and nine
unofficially suspended because of the ongoing Cyprus Problem.
The Turkish Government appears to have no firm course of
action beyond the next couple of months, although its
rhetoric remains resolute and upbeat. The EU Progress
Report's focus on Cyprus may be prescient since restoring the
momentum to Turkey's EU bid may well depend on a successful
outcome in the Nicosia negotiations. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Internally and externally, Turkey's 12th EU progress
report was received with positive reviews. The Turkish EU
Secretariat said it appreciated the report's recognition of
the appointment of an EU negotiator, the democratic opening
initiative, the existence of a functioning market economy,
and Turkish-Armenian reconciliation efforts. Both the EU
Secretariat and the MFA, however, criticized the report's
portrayal of the Cyprus issue.

Status of Key Chapters
--------------


3. (SBU) Despite making some progress on most chapters,
Turkey is finding it difficult to make headway on its EU
accession bid with 8 chapters officially frozen because of
the ongoing Cyprus Problem. In addition, Ankara faces
political obstacles to making constitutional reforms. Seval
Isik, Director of Accession Policy for the Turkish Secretary
General for EU Affairs, privately commented to us that Turkey
can only realistically work on opening one of four technical
chapters during the Spanish or Belgium presidencies: Public
Procurement; Food Safety, Veterinary, and Phytosanitary
Policy; Social Policy and Employment; and Competition Policy.
Both the Turkish EU Secretariat and the Swedish Embassy told
us they expect Turkey to open the Environment Chapter in
December and that they will try to make progress -- although

they are doubtful significant progress will be made -- on the
Energy, and Education and Culture chapters. Regarding the
Competition Policy Chapter, Isik commented that this chapter
is hard to adopt because state aid laws would need to be
implemented.


4. (SBU) The situation in Cyprus continues to be a major
obstacle to implementing reforms. The Turkish EU
Secretariat, EU Commission, and Swedish Embassy all agree
that Turkey must actively try to solve the Cyprus Problem to
allow Ankara to move on the blocked chapters. Swedish
Embassy DCM Urban Andersson commented that his government
does not think anything will be done on the Ankara Additional
Protocol by year's end and that it seems both sides are
hardening their positions. The situation is probably going
to worsen with Turkey's objection over the European
Parliament's claims this week that Turkey has hindered
EU-NATO cooperation by objecting to extending EU-NATO
strategic cooperation beyond the "Berlin Plus" arrangements
over its concerns related to Cyprus, thus paving the way for
less security for EU personnel.


5. (SBU) Andersson commented that the political will might
not exist in Turkey to make these difficult, sensitive
political reforms, particularly because there is an internal
divide within the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)
over these issues. Some AKP members do not think EU
accession will happen, he said, and so doubt the value of
making make painful, unpopular reforms that are likely to be
politically costly. However, Andersson indicated he
personally thought the EU could do more to make progress on
the Energy, and Foreign Security and Defense Diplomacy
chapters to faciliate the process for Turkey-- because it is
in the EU's interest. The EU would benefit, he said, from an
alternative gas route through Turkey and the advantages
inherent in enhanced EU-NATO cooperation.


ANKARA 00001590 002 OF 002


Turkey's Haphazard Reform Plan
--------------


6. (SBU) According to our EU interlocutors, Turkey is now
approaching the EU process in 12 month intervals, rather than
its previous policy of trying to open two chapters per
presidency. Yet Turkey will be lucky if it can open one
chapter per presidency, they say, because all of the "easy"
chapters have already been opened. Although Ankara often
gives the impression it is entitled to preferential
treatment, EU officials warn that there are no exceptions to
EU accession requirements. Despite Turkey's difficult road
with the remaining chapters, the Turkish government is trying
to bolster its EU General Secretariat (EUGS) by reorganizing
it into three directorates -- civil and culture,
implementation, and politics -- and by increasing its staff.
The EUGS is planning to hire 64 new experts in December and
100 more deputy experts in 2010. Deputy Head of EUGS Burak
Erdenir also publicly commented that the Prime Minister had
personally approved a move by the EUGS's newly-created
communications unit in early October to launch a
comprehensive communications strategy to promote Turkey's EU
accession aspirations.


7. (C) Turkey has not set a date as a goal for completion of
significant reforms that are needed for movement on its EU
accession process. Isik commented that EU Affairs Minister
Bagis is continuing to meet with his European counterparts to
promote Turkey's initiatives on EU reforms. However, he
conceded that there is no plan for forward movement after the
technical chapters are opened. Turkish experts at a 26
October EU conference asserted that Turkey has made great
strides in its EU accession bid but that progress is still
slow and the public could become increasingly frustrated if a
date is not set for accession. The Swedes too are concerned
and privately noted that they fear that all reforms will
grind to a halt if the Cyprus talks collapse, particularly
since the Cyprus issue alone has led to blocks on eight
chapters. Regardless, Bagis repeatedly emphasized that the
EU and Turkey need to work hand in hand to get things done.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The EU and Turkey appear to be in sync in agreeing
that all of the "easy" chapters have been opened, with the
remaining reforms hinging on "political" movement on Cyprus
and key constitutional changes. The accession pace, never
rapid, appears set to slow down markedly in 2010, yet the
Turkish Government does not seem to have any firm course of
action beyond the next couple of months. The worst-case
scenario is a standstill which would place both Turkey and
its advocates inside the EU on the defensive. The EU
Progress Report's focus on Cyprus appears appropriate since
only a successful outcome in Nicosia may be able to provide
the necessary boost to Turkey's accession process.

JEFFREY

"Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s
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