TURKEY: DEMOCRAT PARTY BACK FROM THE GRAVE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001576

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: DEMOCRAT PARTY BACK FROM THE GRAVE?

REF: ANKARA 1538

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Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) Summary: The center right Democrat Party (DP) and
Motherland Party (ANAP) held a joint party congress October
31 to implement their merger under the Democrat Party name.
Although the two parties together regularly poll no more than
five percent in public opinion surveys, the merger ends two
decades of acrimony, creating a single prominent party in the
center of the political spectrum. The new DP is not yet
ready for prime time, but its spirits are high, it already
has a member in parliament, and it may be able to attract a
group of unaffiliated or disgruntled politicians looking for
shelter. End summary.


2. (SBU) Since their failure to join in an electoral alliance
for the 2007 general elections, DP and ANAP have been
negotiating a merger of their parties with the intent of
unifying, and thereby reviving, the center of Turkey's
political spectrum. The negotiations bore their first fruit
on October 31: at a joint party congress held at the Ataturk
Sport Center in Ulus, the two parties combined under the
theme "Turkey Is Coming Together" to merge their party
structures. The venue was packed and a lively atmosphere of
reconciliation prevailed, symbolized by a large photograph of
former presidents Turgut Ozal (ANAP) and Suleyman Demirel
(DP) in close conference.


3. (SBU) Any lingering animosities among the two parties'
supporters were not in evidence. During the opening
ceremonies, a film presenting the history of Turkey's
center-right governments depicted both parties' forebears.
Not only were clips of Ozal and Demirel warmly applauded, but
the whole of the participants gave hearty applause to images
of former PMs Mesut Yilmaz (ANAP) and Tansu Ciller (DP),who
were primarily responsible for the bad blood between the
parties and whose mismanagement of the country caused the
rapid decline of the center right. The only negative
sentiments expressed at the gathering were loud jeers at the
mention of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.


4. (SBU) The chairmen of the two parties -- Salih Uzun from
ANAP and Husamettin Cindoruk from DP -- each addressed the
room in turn. Uzun focused on the past of the two parties,
praising the spirit of Ozal and Demirel and emphasizing that
both parties are embodiments of the people-focused politics
of the Justice Party of the 1950s, led by Adnan Menderes and
Celal Bayar. In an act of contrition, he declared that both
ANAP and DP had wasted the 1990s by engaging in petty arguing
and narrow interests, saying, "The fault was ours, not that
of you, the voters." He then predicted that with the parties
unified, the bickering would finally end, and the new DP
would return to the forefront of Turkish politics and work
cohesively to better the country.


5. (SBU) Cindoruk -- who had emerged from negotiations as the
agreed chairman of the unified party -- focused on the future
of the party in his speech. He listed a number of
development goals that the party would strive to reach if
elected to parliament, including investment in roads, dams,
and airports. Lamenting that the Justice and Development
Party (AKP) government's Democratic Initiative had been
hijacked by a delegation of PKK members returning from Iraq
(which he termed a "platoon of guerrillas"),Cindoruk argued
that a state abiding by the rule of law would not need to
implement such an initiative. Refusing to settle for what he
termed "quarter democracy," he insisted that only a party of
the center, open to members from the left and the right --
not the AKP -- could bring full democracy to Turkey. He also
lambasted the AKP, scolding it for using images of Menderes
and Ozal in its March 2009 local election campaign, and for
recently issuing posters of Erdogan writing on a blackboard
-- in secularists' minds, a nearly-blasphemous allusion to
famous photos of Ataturk teaching the modern Turkish alphabet
in the 1920s. Following the speeches, the ANAP delegates
voted to dissolve their party and merge their assets with the
DP.


6. (C) Perhaps more interesting than those speaking, however,
were those who did not. A surprising number of politicians,
whether independents or disaffected members of other parties,
participated as observers. Foremost among these was former

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ANAP PM Mesut Yilmaz, who served as occasional moderator
during the ANAP-DP unification negotiations. Yilmaz
Buyukersen, the Democratic Left Party (DSP) mayor of greater
Eskisehir, and Tayfun Icli, an independent member of
parliament who resigned from DSP only last month, also sat
in. Celal Dogan, formerly of the Republican People's Party,
was also notable -- as a Kurd and former mayor of Gaziantep,
he highlights one of the traditional bastions of ANAP's voter
base. Other notables included Ufuk Soylemez and Mehmet Ali
Bayar, influential DP members from the Tansu Ciller years,
and Nasrin Nas, a former ANAP chairman. Notably absent were
former chairmen Mehmet Agar (DP) and Erkan Mumcu (ANAP) whose
earlier negotiations failed to bring the parties together
before general elections in 2007, and former DP Prime
Minister Tansu Ciller. Following the convention, Mesut
Yilmaz and Celal Dogan announced they had formally joined the
DP. Yilmaz's membership gives DP one seat in Parliament.


7. (C) Mehmet Ali Bayar told us November 2 that the party's
spirits are running high, and contended that in the past 48
hours many people who had kept their distance from both DP
and ANAP are now hustling to sign up. He noted that Cindoruk
initially had agreed to serve only as a "caretaker" leader
for the new DP, but that Cindoruk is now given much credit
for managing the merger and also has a reputation as a
formidable debater -- implying that he might well stay on
through the next elections. Bayar conceded that the party's
immediate aim is simply to get past the ten percent
threshhold, and then form a coalition government. DP
considers both goals within reach. He added that DP's main
theme will be pushing ahead on EU accession, a goal which in
his view no longer appears to be an AKP priority. DP is also
drafting and will soon unveil a new Turkish Constitution,
which will propose a lowering of the electoral threshhold to
bring in many voters who now find themselves disenfranchised,
and also as a means to accommodate ethnic minorities in
Turkey, not least the Kurds.


8. (C) Comment: The new DP has potential but is not yet
ready for prime time. That the DP was able to absorb ANAP
without acrimony is an important first step. It should mean
that there will be no inter-party squabbling that had
previously debased the brand of both ANAP and DP. That DP is
drawing the interest of leftist politicians shows that the
party is shifting to the middle -- while this does cede
ground to the AKP, it attempts to encroach on disgruntled CHP
voters who support it only because they see no other
acceptable option. The party can trade on their past
traditions as shorthand for an as-yet developing platform.
The main element that is missing is a true leader. Cindoruk
seems unlikely to fill this role. An uninspiring speaker in
his 73rd year, Cindoruk also carries the onus of having been
the leader of a group of DP MPs who, in cooperation with the
military, left their party in a bid to destabilize Tansu
Ciller's government coalition with a religious party in 1997.
As leader he will have difficulty convincing the populace
that the new party is not as fractured and opportunistic as
the DP and ANAP of the past. None of the other attendees
appear to have either the charm or control over the party to
stand as a viable leader. Rumors that the head of the
Turkish Union of Chambers of Commerce (TOBB),Rifat
Hisarciklioglu, may step into the leadership position swirl
among our contacts and the press, but to date he has made no
such gesture. Still, with general elections due in the
spring of 2011 at the latest, DP should have time to put
itself into position to run a coherent campaign.

JEFFREY

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