PROTOCOLS IN PARLIAMENT-WHAT NEXT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001569

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AJ AR TU
SUBJECT: PROTOCOLS IN PARLIAMENT-WHAT NEXT?

REF: A. ANKARA 1328

B. ANKARA 1537

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Jeremiah Howard for reasons 1
.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Now that the Turkey-Armenia protocols are
in parliament, "the hard part begins." The GOT faces an
uphill battle in pushing for ratification, as the opposition
continues its criticism and public opinion demands progress
on Nagorno-Karabakh. What constitutes the minimum political
threshold for "progress" is still not agreed on even by
high-level AK Party members. END SUMMARY.

Submission to Parliament
--------------


2. (U) On October 21, the GOT submitted the Turkey-Armenia
protocols to parliament as FM Davutoglu briefed legislators
in a publicly televised speech. He lobbied hard for the
protocols, citing benefits for regional peace and prosperity.
He attempted to convince MPs the protocols would not leave
Turkey vulnerable to territorial claims by Armenia. He
contended the status quo in the Caucasus is not beneficial
for Turkey or the region, and that normalization between
Ankara and Yerevan would accelerate reconciliation between
Azerbaijan and Armenia. He outlined three "targets for
change": 1) Establishing good neighborly relations between
Turkey and Armenia; 2) Establishing a channel of
communication between the Turkish and Armenian peoples, and;
3) Acceleration of the process for resolving Nagorno-
Karabakh.

The Opposition Pounces
--------------


3. (SBU) Opposition party MPs frequently interrupted the FM's
speech, shouting out their criticism: Turkey is bowing to
U.S. pressure; Armenia craves Turkish territory and will
exploit the protocols to get it, and; the government's effort
to improve relations with Armenia will cost Turkey its
friendship with Azerbaijan. MP Oktay Vural, speaking for the
ultra-nationalist MHP, claimed the GoT signed the protocols,
which are "against the national interest of our country,"
under pressure from the U.S. He vowed MHP would oppose the
protocols "as strongly as it can" and that borders should not
be open until occupation of Azerbaijani land ends. MHP leader
Devlet Bahceli aimed criticism directly at the ruling party:
"The AK Party mentality which risks loosing Azerbaijan in the
name of winning over Armenia has forced relations with this
close ally on to a dangerous path." CHP MP Sukru Elekdag
berated the government for pushing the protocols while there
is still no progress on Nagorno-Karabakh. The predominantly
Kurdish DTP, in contrast to the main opposition parties,
welcomed the protocols. DTP MP Selahattin Demirtas said
DTPers support the resolution of Turkey's domestic and
foreign issues through dialogue, and, perhaps self-servingly,
called for a more open debate on Turkey's history. He boldly
added, "I'm saying it openly: The massacres of the Armenians
are not mentioned in our textbooks."

Next Steps
--------------


4. (SBU) The protocols are now with the Foreign Affairs
Committee. After that committee's review, the Parliament
Chairmanship Council, composed of representatives from all
parliamentery parties, will decide when to submit the
protocols to the floor.

How Much Progress in Nagorno-Karabakh?
--------------


5. (C) The President, PM and FM have all emphasized publicly
that the protocols' ratification depends on progress in
Nagorno-Karabakh. After the signing ceremony, PM Erdogan
said the Turkish people will support the protocols strongly
if there is progress between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and that
parliament will monitor developments between Armenia and
Azerbaijan before approving the protocols. The media
reported positively on the signing ceremony and the prospects
for peace, but all articles highlighted the importance of
Nagorno-Karabakh. In conversations with us, few Turkish
officials have argued a complete resolution of
Nagorno-Karabakh is prerequisite to ratification.
Nevertheless, as the ruling party's poll numbers continue to
decline, AKP MPs want substantial progress to defend
themselves against opposition and Azerbaijani criticism.
Opinions from AK Party members on how much progress they will
need vary:

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-- Ibrahim Kalin, Foreign Policy Advisor to PM Erdogan: The
future of the protocols depends on Minsk Group progress. A
road map declaration and schedule for future meetings could
quiet opposition critics.

-- Ayse Hilal Koytak, AK Party Advisor to Foreign Affairs
Committee Chairman Mercan: The Protocols will pass and
borders will open, but the people need something on
Nagorno-Karabakh. There is not a specific definition of how
much must be accomplished, but when the people can see things
are moving forward, they will give their support.

-- Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Murat Mercan:
Parliamentary review will take 'a long time.' The government
is unlikely to impose party discipline on MPs. No MPs,
including Mercan, will vote for the protocols now without
substantial progress. An agreement between Armenia and
Azerbaijan would have to be reached, signed and ratified
before the protocols would gain sufficient parliamentary
support.

-- Ahmet Iyimaya, AKP MP: There will "never" be a vote in
parliament unless there is a withdrawal from the 5
territories. This is required and nothing less will satisfy
MPs and the public.

-- Suat Kiniklioglu, Foreign Policy Advisor to PM Erdogan:
Azerbaijan tried to change Turkey's mind about normalization
with Armenia, but the GOT is committed to its 'neighborhood
reintegration' plan. The PM needs progress on
Nagorno-Karabakh or the protocols will damage him politically
if they are brought to the floor. It would also be pointless
because they would not pass. Armenian withdrawal from the 5
territories and a roadmap with international guarantees would
provide sufficient political cover for ratification.


6. (C) COMMENT: Davutoglu said, subsequent to his
parliamentary appearance, the government will not impose
party discipline when the protocols come to a vote, something
which we had previously thought a possibility (reftel A.)
With each governing party MP free to vote his conscience,
progress in Nagorno-Karabakh becomes key to the protocols'
passage. What constitutes sufficient progress is unclear,
however, and may depend on AKP's ability to raise its poll
numbers generally by generating popular enthusiasm for its
many domestic and foreign policy initiatives.

JEFFREY

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