Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ANKARA149
2009-01-30 11:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

ERDOGAN'S DAVOS REMARKS PLAY WELL FOR AKP

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU 
pdf how-to read a cable
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8627
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RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
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RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000149 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: ERDOGAN'S DAVOS REMARKS PLAY WELL FOR AKP

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady for reasons 1.4(b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000149

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: ERDOGAN'S DAVOS REMARKS PLAY WELL FOR AKP

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) Summary and comment: Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan
received a hero's welcome on his return to Turkey early
January 30 from Davos, where during a televised discussion
concerning Gaza he harshly criticized the Israeli government
and stormed out, swearing to never return. The outburst has
played well in much of the Turkish press. One headline
proclaimed Erdogan "the hero of Davos." Political observers
predict a significant boost in the polls for Erdogan's ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP). The Davos incident
seems to have ignited Erdogan's infamous temper largely
because he perceived that the moderator's approach was
unfair. End summary and comment.

--------------
Erdogan Given Hero's Welcome
--------------


2. (U) Thousands of Turkish flag-waving supporters gathered
at Istanbul's Ataturk Airport to welcome PM Erdogan home
January 30 from his tempestuous Davos trip, shouting, "Turkey
is with you" and holding signs greeting the PM as "a new
world leader." Erdogan had stormed out of an angry debate
with Israel President Shimon Peres at the Davos forum on
January 29. During the debate, Erdogan reportedly clashed
with Peres, whose voice had risen as he made an impassioned
defense of Israel's actions. Erdogan said Peres had spoken
loudly to conceal his "guilt." He then accused the moderator
of not allowing him to speak and left the room, telling
reporters later that he had reacted to the moderator's
refusal to give him the floor to respond to Peres' defense of
the operation. Erdogan told the cheering crowd upon arrival,
"I only know that I have to protect the honor of Turkey and
Turkish people. I am not a chief of a tribe. I am the prime
minister of Turkey. I have to do what I have to do."
Erdogan stressed to the crowds that "our hard words are not
directed towards the people of Israel, not directed at the
Jews, but are totally directed toward the government of
Israel."


3. (U) Many newspapers praised Erdogan. In a story titled
"An Historic Lesson for Peres," conservative-nationalist

"Turkiyet" reported that Erdogan responded to Peres by
saying, "You know very well how to kill." Islamist-oriented
"Yeni Safak" called Erdogan's harsh criticism against Peres,
"An Historic Gaza Slap" and dubbed Erdogan "the heroic
knight." Mainstream "Vatan" reported that crowds greeted
Erdogan upon his 3 a.m. arrival in Istanbul by cheering "Damn
Israel" and called Erdogan "the conqueror of Davos."
Mainstream "Aksam" hailed Erdogan as "the new leader of the
world." Several newspapers were more skeptical of the impact
of Erdogan's actions would have. "Radikal" headlined, "A
Climate Like Kasimpasa in Davos," referring to the
rough-and-tumble Istanbul neighborhood where Erdogan was
raised, and criticized Erdogan for his "street-boy behavior."
"Milliyet" reported the reactions of several retired Turkish
diplomats who said, "the incident will fuel tensions between
Israel and Turkey" and "Erdogan has damaged Turkey's status
as an impartial mediator in the Middle East."


4. (U) Internet blogs hosted by mainstream media outlets
predominantly feature comments from Turkish readers in
support of Erdogan, many of which take a pointedly
nationalist stance. A representative comment on the
"Hurriyet" blog stated that Erdogan "was not afraid or
intimidated and did not keep his silence. Our PM has done
the right thing. He was treated disrespectfully at an
international arena and he showed a strong reaction." A
"Milliyet" reader wrote, "I don't understand those who
evaluate the situation negatively. I believe those people
should first question whether or not they are Turks. The PM
has shown the world that when necessary we can demonstrate
that we are not afraid of anyone." An "N TV" reader wrote,
"We are proud of our PM. Last night was historic and I've
never seen us demonstrate such a stance toward Israel. We
stand tall."

--------------
AKP: Erdogan Represents Turkish Sentiment
--------------


ANKARA 00000149 002 OF 002



5. (C) AKP Vice Chair Bulent Gedikli told us that Erdogan's
remarks were not an attempt to gain votes but are a natural
outgrowth of Erdogan's ability to represent the sentiment of
the Turkish people. Gedikli said that as the "party of the
people" AKP takes into account the Turkish population's views
in formulating policy. AKP's extensive polling in the lead
up to March 29 local elections showed that overwhelmingly
Turks were strongly critical of Israel's attacks on Gaza.
"Turks are extremely sensitive on this topic," he noted. PM
Erdogan takes this public sentiment into account, and had in
fact planned to deliver strong remarks in Davos regarding
Israeli attacks. Gedikli noted that both Erdogan's and the
Turkish people's negative sentiment was directed at the
Israeli government, not the Israeli people or Jews. Gedikli
said Israel-Turkey relations would continue despite what he
expect to be continuing tension.

--------------
Short-Term AKP Political Bounce Expected
--------------


6. (C) Erdogan's outburst appears to have given AKP an
electoral boost, at least in the short-term, according to a
wide range of Embassy contacts. Political strategist Faruk
Demir, for instance, declared that the Davos drama would have
gained AKP ten percentage points in local elections were they
to have been held this weekend. "Sabah" columnist Muharrem
Sarikaya told us that "the Turkish people are applauding
Erdogan as a hero." He predicted that if elections were held
over the next few days the incident would easily give AKP a
five-point boost. Huseyin Kocabiyik, head of the Analitik
think tank similarly predicted that AKP would have gotten 55
percent of the national vote in hypothetical elections.


7. (C) Our contacts said that the increase in AKP's
vote-share would come from the lower classes to include
leftist working families as well as nationalists and
religious conservatives. Metropoll President Ozer Sencer
told us that Erdogan's "bullying style" appeals to Turkey's
"uneducated masses." The 13 percent who have received higher
education probably believe this will hurt Turkey's stature
but the rural masses do not, according to Sencer. (Note:
Sencer's Metropoll is conducting a one-day, 10-question poll
today to gauge attitudes on this issue. End note.)
Kocabiyik pointed out that Erdogan's rhetoric would also head
off a slow drain of disgruntled voters to the Nationalist
Action Party (MHP) and the religious Saadet Party. In
provinces like Izmir, Ankara, and Eskisehir where AKP is
running a dead heat against leftist candidates, AKP would
need the nationalist vote to win. Likewise, votes pulled
from Saadet could be crucial in beating the Democratic
Society Party (DTP) in largely Kurdish provinces in the
Southeast.


8. (C) The domestic risks may be high in the medium term,
according to some contacts. Sarikaya pointed out that there
are still two months until elections. Intensified calls for
Erdogan to break relations with Israel or violence against
Jews during a protest rally could force Erdogan into a
corner. Opposition politicians are already grasping at this
opening. Onur Oymen of the main opposition Republican
People's Party (CHP) accused Erdogan of damaging Turkey's
credibility on the world by behaving rudely to heads of state
and defending HAMAS. The MHP's Deniz Bolukbasi dismissed
Erdogan's impetuousness as "cartoon heroism."

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

Jeffrey