TURKEY-SYRIA RELATIONS: AN AKP WORK IN PROGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001486

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SY TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY-SYRIA RELATIONS: AN AKP WORK IN PROGRESS

REF: A. ANKARA 1446

B. RIYADH 1303

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) Summary: The Turkish government firmly supports its
expanding bilateral relationship with Syria, which it argues
benefits both nations and the region. Increasing ties and
cooperation between the two governments led to a recent
agreement to remove visa requirements, which the MFA deems a
constructive decision that enables relatives and businessmen
easier movement between the two neighbors without increasing
security concerns. The GOT anticipates further strengthening
its bilateral relations with the establishment of a High
Level Strategic Cooperation Council with Syria similar to the
council it instituted with Iraq. The Turkish MFA downplayed
the significance of a new joint military exercise announced
by the Syrian Defense Minister. Senior Turkish government
leaders aspire to play an influential advisory role with
Syrian President Asad and believe they can use this influence
to help guide Syrian policy to better fit international
standards. End Summary.


2. (C) Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)
sees the deepening bilateral relationship between Turkey and
Syria as a positive development for both countries. Ibrahim
Kalin, foreign policy advisor to PM Erdogan, told us that the
Turkish government began building its relationship with Syria
with confidence-building measures in 2003 and 2004. He said
that Syrian acceptance of Turkish sovereignty over Hatay
province and cooperation against the PKK were two important
measures for fostering relations. He added that the GOT is
building economic relations knowing that they are more
beneficial to Syria, the smaller and less economically
developed partner. Water issues are another topic that the
two countries have been working on for years, according to
Kalin. The developing ties between the two countries led to
the decision to remove the visa requirement for travel
between Turkey and Syria.

Bye Bye Visa
--------------


3. (C) During Syrian President Assad's mid-September visit to
Istanbul, an agreement was reached to remove the visa
requirement between Turkey and Syria. Syria put the
agreement into effect that day -- a surprise to the Turkish
side, which then reciprocated the following day, according to
Turkish MFA Syria desk officer Burak Rende. The Turkish and
Syrian Foreign Ministers signed the final agreement on the
elimination of the visa requirement on October 13, during the
first meeting of the Turkey-Syria High Level Strategic
Cooperation Council. Turkey sees the visa agreement as a
positive development because it will allow "blood relations"
and businessmen to move more easily between the two
countries. Kalin contended that Turkish government officials
have no security concerns over the decision, as "no Syrian
would try to harm any Turk." (Note: Kalin seemingly is
unaware that Luay al-Saqa, the ringleader of the 2003
Istanbul bombings, was a Syrian citizen of mixed Syrian and
Turkish ancestry. He was convicted by a Turkish court of
plotting a further attack against a tourist cruise ship
leaving the Turkish port of Antalya. End note.)


4. (C) We asked if Turkey has any apprehension that easing
travel requirements might make it easier for terrorists to
travel through Turkey on to Europe. Kalin responded that it
is up to the Europeans to protect themselves. Rende said
that terrorists coming out of Syria do not operate in Turkey
and contended that Syria values its relationship with Turkey
too much to allow terrorist groups to do anything that would
risk that connection. He said neither side had emphasized
the issue of terrorist transit during discussions on the
removal of the visa requirement nor had there been any focus
on how this agreement could affect terrorist movement.

Stronger Links with High Level Council
--------------


5. (C) The GOT continues to look for ways to strengthen its

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ties to the Syrian government and draw Syria closer to its
point of view. Sedat Laciner, director of the think-tank
USAK, said Turkey is trying to use soft power with economic
and cultural connections to change Syria. Rende explained
that the political declaration on the High Level Strategic
Cooperation Council signed by President Asad and PM Erdogan
in mid-September created a framework for bilateral relations
between Turkey and Syria. The council will focus on
cooperation on political and diplomatic levels, and on
commercial, water, culture, and security issues. Ankara
plans to use the council as a tool to open Syria to Turkish
exports as well as to improve border crossing points so that
the processing of transport trucks will be accelerated to
reduce shipping backups. Turkey also wants to cooperate on
railways and facilitate tourism. On water issues, Rende said
that Syria appears to be open to cooperation. The High Level
Strategic Cooperation Council will be managed at the Deputy
Under Secretary level-- which, according to Rende, is
necessary for any concrete results.


6. (C) Turkish and Syrian ministers met in Aleppo on 13
October for the first meeting of the High Level Strategic
Cooperation Council. Turkish FM Davutoglu, Defense Minister
Gonul, Interior Minister Atalay, Health Minister Akdag,
Transportation Minister Yildrim, Agricultural Minister Eker,
Energy minister Yildiz, Environment Minister Eroglu, and
state ministers Hayati Yazici and Cevdet Yilmaz travelled to
Syria for the meeting with their counterparts. The ministers
discussed cooperation in several areas, including education,
trade, transportation, irrigation, and border crossing.
During the opening ceremony, Davutoglu said "the main slogan
of the meeting is common destiny, history, and future, and we
will build the future together." He also said he hopes these
ties will serve as a model for other neighboring countries;
the same sentiment mentioned by the MFA and AKP contacts we
spoke with on the Turkey-Syrian relationship.


7. (C) When asked about Syrian Defense Minister Ali Habib's
announcement during a October 13 press conference that Turkey
and Syria had agreed to a "more comprehensive, bigger" joint
land exercise, MFA's Rende was quick to downplay the impact.
He said the exercise was proposed by Syria, and that the
details have not been reviewed by the Turkish interagency
process. Therefore, details about the scale, modalities and
timing have not been set. Rende stated that any joint
exercise between Syria and Turkey would be limited to
security issues of common concern, namely: border security,
anti-smuggling, and counterterrorism, including anti-PKK
efforts. He noted that these aspects of bilateral security
cooperation between Turkey and Syria were agreed to in 1998
and are not new.
Using Advisory Role to Guide Syrian Leadership


8. (C) The GOT contends that by offering guidance to the
Syrian government, it will help it change and move toward
more positive policies. Kalin and Laciner both mentioned the
numerous visits to Damascus by senior Turkish leaders in the
past two years and pointed to them as a sign of the
importance and depth of the relationship. Laciner said these
visits led Turkey to be seen in Damascus as a close friend,
and not just a foreign ally. He described a meeting between
President Asad and President Gul, where Asad asked for Gul's
advice on political issues -- "as a son talking to a father"
-- rather than a discussion between counterparts. He said
Turkish leaders have used their influence with Asad to
encourage him to take steps that they view as important for
the region, such as lobbying the Syrian President to visit
Saudi Arabia for the opening of the King Abdullah University
of Science and Technology (REF B). Turkey also attempted to
use its influence with both the Syrian and Iraqi governments
to reduce tensions following the August 19 bombing in Iraq.
Kalin noted that Turkey, under the auspices of FM Davutoglu,
had made a "good faith" effort in trying to mediate between
the two countries.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The Turkish government appears somewhat defensive
about its relationship with Syria, and quick to rely on the

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justification that Ankara can play an influential role in
guiding the Syrian leadership. The Turkey-Syria relationship
fits neatly into AKP's proactive foreign policy, spearheaded
by FM Davutoglu, of engaging with all its neighbors in
pursuit of "zero problems." The GOT may also view its
relationship with Syria as proof of Turkey's leadership role
in the Middle East, which they argue should bolster their EU
accession prospects -- something which EU diplomats in Ankara
firmly dispute. The GOT's lack of concern for security
ramfications resulting from the lifting of visa requirements
for Syria appears naive, and suggests it has given too little
thought to the potential international consequences of such a
move.

JEFFREY

"Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s
gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"