Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ANKARA144
2009-01-29 12:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

ERGENEKON PROBE: SOME SMOKE, BUT LASTING IMPACT

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU 
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id: 189386
date: 1/29/2009 12:34
refid: 09ANKARA144
origin: Embassy Ankara
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 08ANKARA375|09ANKARA31|09ANKARA64
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 000144

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: ERGENEKON PROBE: SOME SMOKE, BUT LASTING IMPACT

REF: A. ANKARA 64

B. ANKARA 31

C. 08 ANKARA 375

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady for reasons 1.4(b,d)

id: 189386
date: 1/29/2009 12:34
refid: 09ANKARA144
origin: Embassy Ankara
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 08ANKARA375|09ANKARA31|09ANKARA64
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8615
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RUEUITH/TLO ANKARA TU
RUEHAK/TSR ANKARA TU
RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 000144

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: ERGENEKON PROBE: SOME SMOKE, BUT LASTING IMPACT

REF: A. ANKARA 64

B. ANKARA 31

C. 08 ANKARA 375

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) Summary: The widening scope of the Ergenekon
investigation has divided Turkish society into two
increasingly hardened camps: those who see the case as a
courageous step to bring Turkish society under the rule of
law, by uncovering and then holding accountable the gangs
responsible for hundreds of unsolved mystery killings and
disappearances; and those who see a politically manipulated
investigation that targets only opponents of the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP). The continuing
progression of the investigation and trial, steps that would
have been unthinkable just several years ago in Turkey,
demonstrates a shift in balance of power away from an
entrenched elite that includes the military, bureaucracy, and
the Republican People's Party (CHP) to a body of elites that
has newly emerged on the political scene. The case reflects
the deep schisms in Turkish society, and therefore will
continue to evoke visceral responses that are an outgrowth of
a larger debate over where the country is headed. Many Turks
are quick to blame Ergenekon for every wound in the past, but
we find the notion of such a vast conspiracy network highly
implausible. Prosecutors seem to be overreaching as they try
to connect ever-widening circles of defendants, some of whom
appear directly culpable for violent crimes, but others who

seem only marginally involved, or are simply strong advocates
for secularism. Actual convictions may prove elusive, given
the nature of the evidence. The trials promise to be
unusually lengthy. AKP sees itself as the political
beneficiary of the Ergenekon investigation, but over the long
term Turkish society itself may be the real winner: the
prosecutor's resolve in tackling this previously taboo topic
introduces the concept of full accountability -- even in dark
corners of the "deep state." End summary.

--------------
Investigation's Scope Widens
--------------


2. (U) The Ergenekon case, which began in June 2007 after
police raided the home of a non-commissioned military officer
in Istanbul and discovered 27 hand grenades of the same type
used in attacks on "Cumhuriyet" newspaper's Istanbul office
in 2006, has grown ever wider in scope. Prosecutors have
worked with the Turkish National Police (TNP) to detain more
than 100 journalists, writers, alleged gang leaders, and
politicians in what has morphed into a case to root out and
hold accountable members of an alleged ultra-nationalist gang
named Ergenekon. The 2,500-page indictment filed by chief
prosecutor Zekeriya Oz alleges an extensive criminal network
sought to carry out numerous assassinations and other crimes.
Although the indictment does not explicitly say so, may
allege the evidence points to a plan by the criminal network
to topple the AKP government by creating an environment of
mayhem that would lead to a military coup.


3. (U) Turkish police on January 22 carried out the eleventh
sweep, detaining 39 people from 13 cities, including
Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya, Bursa, Hakkari, Elezig, Igdir, and
Hatay, and seizing 50,000 books and 200,000 documents. The
detainees are alleged to be part of assassination teams
directed by Ibrahim Sahin, former head of the police special
operations unit who is currently under arrest in the case.
Detainees included 17 police officers from a special
operations unit, two non-commissioned military officers,
three lieutenants, seven journalists, the leader of the
Turkish Metal Worker's Union (a body that claims 300,000
members) and four unionists, the head of Ankara-based Eurasia
TV, VERSO Polling company's owner Erhan Goksel, senior
journalist Unal Inanc, and Sirinoglu Human Rights Association
Head Savas Avci. Union leaders, the main opposition
Republican People's Party (CHP) and detainees' relatives
condemned the detentions as part of a campaign to eliminate
AKP's opponents. Turkish Confederation of Labor Unions
(Turk-Is) released a statement reading, "It is impossible to
implicate any union in the Ergenekon case. The reason for
the union's existence is democracy itself." Following the
detentions, Prosecutor Turan Colakkadi told reporters that

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his office would complete a supplemental indictment by the
end of January.


4. (C) The military seemingly has generally acquiesced in the
probe, saying that it, more than any other institution in
Turkey, has an interest in "making the investigation more
clear." The military has cooperated with the civilian-led
investigations, allowing searches on premises controlled by
the military, and consenting to the arrest of active duty
officers. Official military reactions against the Ergenekon
investigation have been limited to expressing concern about
the treatment of senior retired officers arrested in the case
and the need to respect the rule of law and the rights of the
accused as well as about how the case is covered by the
media. Still, some of our contacts tell us that many
generals are seething and perceive this probe as a focused
effort to diminish the military's stature. There are outward
signs of this anger. For example, the military issued a
sharply-worded statement following the suicide of a decorated
retired colonel implicated in the investigations, comparing
those passing judgment in the media on individual suspects
before the formal judicial proceedings have concluded to
"extrajudicial executions."

--------------
Views of Ergenekon Politicized
--------------


5. (U) A January 17-19 "A and G Company" poll that surveyed
2,407 people in 33 provinces reveals a sharp division in
societal views about Ergenekon. The poll determined that 62
percent of those questioned believe an organization called
Ergenekon exists, while 20 percent do not. The percentage of
those who rejected the existence increased with education:
15 percent of primary school graduates did not believe
Ergenekon exists; 23 percent of high school graduates did
not; and 27 percent of university graduates did not. When
asked their views of the aims of the investigation, 49
percent of respondents said they believe it aims to punish a
criminal gang and coup plotters, while 22 percent agreed that
it is an excuse used by the government to punish opposition
and the military. When asked if the investigation is
proceeding according to legal norms, 33 percent said yes; 27
percent said they believe illegal gangs within the state
exist but that the investigation is targeting government
opponents; 15 percent said the entire investigation is a
government ploy.


6. (U) The poll demonstrated that Turks' views of the case
line up according to political allegiances. According to the
poll, half of respondents who are CHP supporters did not
believe Ergenekon exists. Among AKP supporters, 75 percent
believed the alleged gang exists, while 64 percent of
Nationalist Action Party (MHP) supporters believed in
Ergenekon's existence. Partisanship was also apparent in
answers to the question of whether the investigation is
proceeding in accordance with legal norms. Only 13 percent
of CHP supporters believed this to be true, while the
percentage increased to 18 percent among pro-Kurdish
Democratic Society (DTP) supporters, 21 percent among MHP
supporters, and 56 percent among AKP supporters. Among CHP
supporters, 33 percent believed the investigation to be a
government ploy, versus 2 percent for AKP supporters.

-------------- --------------
A Leap Forward in Transparency and Accountability
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Many liberal contacts hope that the case represents a
"Clean Hands" process that will hold the military and
traditional state elites accountable for their conduct.
Human Rights Agenda Association President Orhan Kemal Cengiz,
lead attorney for the families of three Christians murdered
in Malatya in 2007, told us the investigation is a necessary
first step to end the "tremendous culture of impunity in
Turkey that has led to over 17,500 unsolved killings."
Cengiz said criticisms of the use of excessive force in the
investigation are beside the point, noting that Ergenekon
opponents "never once criticized such tactics when they were
used over the past several decades to detain Kurds, human
rights activists, and other innocent citizens." Such claims
by opponents of the case distract from the reality that the

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investigation has brought to light evidence that has made it
impossible to deny the existence of "deep-state" involvement
in criminal acts and "collapsed the old balance of power in
Turkey" between the military, the government, and the
traditional state elite, including the judiciary. Cengiz
said that as the revelations of the Ergenekon investigation
have come forth, the once-skeptical judges in the Malatya
murders trial (ref C) have been increasingly willing to allow
Cengiz to pursue his theory that the Ergenekon network was
responsible for the Malatya murders.


8. (C) Ankara University Law Professor Mithat Sancar told us
that the Ergenekon investigation is the most important event
in Turkey since the Turkish Republic was founded in 1923.
Sancar said he does not believe that there is an overarching
criminal network as such, but estimates that 80 percent of
detainees are guilty of some serious crime. He disagrees
that the prosecution team is under AKP's influence. Chief
prosecutor Oz is a well-respected professional and
understands that it would be foolish to give too much
credence to the views of a political party that could be
voted out of office, he said. Sancar believes that the
investigation will last at least two years and will uncover
only the "tip of the iceberg" because "Turkey's judicial
system is not equipped to process such a large and complex
case." He told us that the impact of the case is not tied to
its length or conclusion, noting that the investigation had
already upended the traditional culture of impunity for
certain segments of Turkish society, including the military.


9. (C) Ayhan Bilgen, former President of human rights NGO
Mazlum-Der, told us the military's apparent acquiescence thus
far is in itself a sea change. Bilgen said that the past
investigations of Susurluk and Semdinli, two other cases
where deep-state involvement was indicated, had been quashed
by the military without legal consequences for any involved.
If Ergenekon had begun just 5 years ago it too would have
been stopped in its tracks, he said. AKP's triumph over the
military and the traditional elite in the controversy
regarding the 2007 election of Abdullah Gul to the Presidency
and later in the 2008 AKP closure case had significantly
weakened the military's hand. The military will not
intervene lest it draw fierce public response, according to
Bilgen. (Comment: Retired military judge Sadi Cayci told us
the Turkish military firmly believes Turkey's secular
identity is sacred and must be protected at all costs, and
that there are active duty and retired officers who might
take this view to the extreme. He said Basbug's challenge is
to rein in extremists while pushing for an investigation that
respects the rule of law and is not used as a political tool.
End comment.)

-------------- --------------
Politicization Jeopardizes Ability to Bring Change
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Middle East Technical University (METU) Dean of
Graduate Programs Sencer Ayata, one of Turkey's most
respected Social Democrats, doubts the case will lead to the
lasting effect for which its proponents hope. He told us
that the ever-widening scope of the investigation and the use
of questionable prosecutorial tactics undermines the
credibility of the investigation. The prosecutors had
rounded up a diverse array of figures, many of whom are
traditional enemies, whose only common element is their
opposition to AKP: union leaders and Alevis on the left,
right-wing ultranationalists, and marginal figures such as a
transvestite television star with no connection to politics.
Lumping together these diverse figures into one massive case
makes it appear to be deeply politicized, and it has
therefore lost credibility, according to Ayata. MHP MP Faruk
Bal told us that it is unlikely that the criminals who worked
for Ergenekon will be brought to justice because the
investigation has turned into "a farce." Prime Minister
Erdogan and CHP Chairman Baykal have taken such clear sides
on the case that regardless of the verdict, the popular
perception will be that it will have been political.


11. (C) METU professor Aykan Erdemir told us that the tactic
of arresting even marginal figures, such as a transvestite
actor, often in the middle of the night, had scared people
into silence. In an atmosphere "eerily reminiscent of the

ANKARA 00000144 004 OF 004


post-1980 coup," parents are telling their kids not to talk
about politics, and academics are scared to mention anything
about politics when talking on the phone, according to
Aydemir. Such an environment of fear had significantly
eroded trust in Turkey's system of justice. "The tragedy,"
in his view, "is that the politicization will cause the
perverse result of leading to the collapse of the case
without the guilty having been brought to justice."


12. (C) "Hurriyet" columnist Yusuf Kanli believes the case
has become politicized to an extent that it will not be able
to increase respect for the rule of law. He wrote January 19
that the investigation's disregard for traditional pillars of
justice -- due process, protection of individual rights, and
the right to a fair trial -- has undermined its legitimacy.
The prosecution's tendency to detain people without a court
warrant and then "summarily execute them on the front pages
of the AKP-controlled media" was legitimizing the "gross
violations" of due process that have plagued Turkey for
decades.

--------------
Comment: A Pivotal Event for Turkey
--------------


13. (C) Although the investigation has already proceeded much
further in time and scope than many believed possible when it
began, many obstacles stand in the way of the prosecutor's
ability to see it through. Not least is the opposition he
will face from the judicial establishment itself.
Foreshadowing this tension, following a police search of the
house of the honorary president of the Court of Appeals Sabih
Kanadoglu, Union of Judges and Prosecutors (Yarsav) head Omer
Faruk Eminagaoglu called a January 23 press conference to
criticize the investigation as politically manipulated and to
reprimand Turkish police for "seeking murderers in the houses
of judges and prosecutors." Eminagaoglu criticized Justice
Minister Mehmet Ali Sahin for siding with intelligence
organizations instead of upholding the law, and said the
investigatory tactics were turning Turkey into a "police
state." Many predict that one of the coming prosecutorial
police sweeps will occur shortly before March 29 local
elections and focus on politicians from the mainstream
opposition parties -- CHP, MHP, Democratic Party (DP) and
Motherland Party (ANAP). If true, this is likely to bring
increasing protests that the investigation is less a push for
transparency than a witch hunt against AKP enemies. AKP
opponents will continue to point out that AKP refuses to lift
parliamentary immunity and is less than fully engaged in
urging investigations into credible allegations of AKP-linked
corruption, such as the Deniz Feneri (Lighthouse) scandal.


14. (C) Irrespective of the length of the case or its
ultimate conclusion, the fact that the case has proceeded so
far already -- 8 months, a 2,500-page indictment, and over
200 people detained, including active duty and senior retired
military officers, active police officers, union leaders --
demonstrates that the balance of power in Turkey has already
swung away from an entrenched elite composed of the military,
bureaucracy, and CHP to a body of elites that has emerged on
the political scene in the past decade. The prosecution's
ability to detain such noteworthy figures and delve into some
of Turkey's dark secrets has sent a message to the public and
the old guard that illegal manipulation of politics is no
longer acceptable in Turkey, and portends the end of Turks'
once-sacred belief that the military stands as the primary
protector and guardian of the Republic. The progression of
this sometimes disorderly and confusing case will bring more
visceral reactions and likely further political polarization.
These are a natural outgrowth of a larger debate over where
the country is headed, as democratic reforms related to
Turkey's European Union accession are forcing Turks to
grapple with the meaning of secularism and nationalism, as
well as darker parts of Turkish history. But the
prosecutor's willingness to tackle this previously taboo
topic, and the debate Ergenkon has engendered, gives evidence
of a maturing Turkish democracy.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
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Jeffrey