TURKEY: EARLY REACTION IN THE MEDIA TO MISSILE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001373

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2019
TAGS: MARR PREL KMDR NATO IR TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: EARLY REACTION IN THE MEDIA TO MISSILE
DEFENSE ANNOUNCEMENT

REF: STATE 095619

Classified By: DCM Doug Silliman for reason 1.4 (b, d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Turkish media reaction to the White House
announcement on European missile defense has been limited
thus far and ranged from straightforward reporting based on
the Presidential announcement to speculation that the
announcement portends a greater role for Turkey in the new
"Phased, Adaptive Approach." Some of the media reporting
focused on the positive Russian reaction to the announcement
as well as reactions in the Czech Republic and Poland. The
few Turkish pundits who have weighed in on the issue thus far
have conflated the White House announcement with the recent,
unrelated notification to Congress regarding a possible sale
of U.S. air defense systems to Turkey. They were critical of
the likely high cost of the missile system and questioned
whether Turkey's acquisition of air defense capabilities or
hosting of air defense assets under the new U.S. approach
would upset Turkey's improving ties with Iran and Russia.
End Summary.


2. (SBU) Initial media reaction to the White House
announcement on European missile defense has been somewhat
limited, likely due to a mix of the timing of the
announcement, which took place late in the afternoon local
time, ongoing coverage of the government's "Democratic
Initiative" to address the Kurdish issue, and a media frenzy
over the arrest yesterday of a teenage fugitive wanted in a
sensational murder case. Turkey will celebrate the end of
Ramadan for the coming four days, so media reaction will
likely be slow to develop.


3. (SBU) Leading Turkish daily Hurriyet provided
straightforward reporting on President Obama's announcement,
and noted that this announcement coincided with the
announcement of the Congressional notification of the USG
intent to participate in Turkey's air defense system tender
with the 7.8 billion USD Patriot Advanced Capability-3
(PAC-3) system. Vatan, another major daily, suggested that
the participation of the Patriot system in the tender was
linked to the new missile defense approach.


4. (SBU) Most media outlets speculated that Turkey will
likely be asked to play a leading role in the new
architecture. Mainstream daily Sabah headlines that "The
Missile Defense Shield Is Sliding Straight Toward Turkey."
Cumhuriyet, a leftist-nationalist daily, and the
Islamist-oriented Yeni Safak drew from a Washington Post
article which cited unnamed officials who said that
anti-missile ships will be deployed to the Black Sea and
Baltic Sea, while the missile shield will be built in Turkey
according to the new strategy.


5. (SBU) In Turkey, newspaper columnists are widely read and
are among the most influential opinion makers. Ercan
Citlioglu, a contact for Consulate Istanbul and an
influential academic questioned the need for a missile
defense system in Turkey: "Turkey faces no threat from any
neighbor... But in which direction will these weapons be
stationed? The first country that comes to mind is Iran.
Washington may consider Iran to be a rogue country, but it
has in no way displayed any sign of enmity against its
Turkish neighbors. Leading columnist Mehmet Ali Birand wrote
that the threat against which these weapons will be directed
is poorly defined, and declares that this step would be at
odds with the government's policy to engage with Iran.


6. (SBU) Hurriyet's Sedat Laciner, the head of the
International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO),an
influential Ankara-based thinktank, speculated that U.S.
willingness to supply the Patriot system was driven by its
desire to stem Turkey's improving ties with Iran and Russia.
The Hurriyet report also noted that other observers (not
named) have suggested that Turkey's decision to acquire an
air defense system was driven by a military at odds with the
Justice and Development Party's zero-problem foreign policy
approach. FM Davutoglu -- before the POTUS announcement
missile defense announcement -- refuted this assertion,
however, stating that the move to acuire new air defense
capability was not directed at any state, but was rather the
next stage in Turkey's military development.


7. (SBU) Other comments focused on the cost of Turkey's air

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defense acquisition in light of an economic downturn and the
government's recent announcement of a large budget deficit.
Hasan Koni, a professor of international relations at
Istanbul's Bahcesehir University complained that, "The
purchase is futile. We can build 70 universities in Turkey
with that money.


Comment
--------------


8. (C) This story will gather momentum in the press once the
Turkish chattering classes return from their four-day holiday
to mark the end of Ramadan, but it is impossible to predict
how Turkey's many pundits will come down on the issue. Most
likely, they will be split on the issue, each trying to find
a unique aspect of the issue on which to focus. We have been
careful to highlight the president's point that we consulted
with Allies before making this decision and that some of
Turkey's main points were taken into account. The government
will be under pressure from opinion leaders to resist joining
in efforts which Iran will interpret as threats. While
Turkey's military recognizes the threat of a nuclear-armed
Iran, Turkey's civilian leaders will be keeping their eyes
fixed on domestic public opinion. Regular, high-level
engagement will be essential if we are to ask Turkey to play
a leading role in this effort.

JEFFREY

"Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s
gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"