LOWEST RAINFALL LEVELS SINCE 1995 CAUSE JORDAN TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 000508


STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/RA, AND OES
STATE PASS TO USAID
EPA FOR INTERNATIONAL
USDA FOR FOREST SERVICE/INTERNATIONAL
INTERIOR FOR INTERNATIONAL/WASHBURNE
CAIRO FOR VIALA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2019
TAGS: SENV EAGR EAID PGOV PREL JO SY IS
SUBJECT: LOWEST RAINFALL LEVELS SINCE 1995 CAUSE JORDAN TO
PREPARE FOR SUMMER DROUGHT

REF: A. 08 AMMAN 3011

B. 08 AMMAN 1639

C. 08 AMMAN 409

D. 08 AMMAN 228

E. 07 ROME 2518

F. 07 AMMAN 668

Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)



1. (SBU) Summary: The Government of Jordan (GOJ) is
preparing for a summer water crisis due to the lowest
rainfall levels since 1995. As the fourth driest country in
the world, Jordan has long had its share of water troubles
(reftels). Even during years of average to good rain,
Jordan's total water supply of 850 million cubic meters (MCM)
cannot meet estimated annual demand of over 1,520 MCM. Last
winter, dam storage was at 45% of total dam capacity, which
was considered inadequate. This winter, dam storage as of
February 22 (two-thirds of the way through the rainy season)
is even lower at 79 MCM or 36.8% of total dam capacity. The
Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) has indicated that dam
storage levels of about 60-65% would allow Jordan to "relax"
a bit. Without additional rain over the next few months, the
water situation could become extremely difficult this summer.
Likely policy options range from cutting off water supplies
for the summer vegetable crops by May 2009 to reducing water
availability in Amman by 10% during the summer 2009. Jordan
may also ask Israel for additional water resources in 2009,
as it did in 2008. Water tariffs, which include subsidies
for agricultural use, are unlikely to increase in the current
economic and political climate. The significant USG
assistance in the water sector has, and will continue to be,
critical for Jordan's economic and sustainable development.
End Summary.

Winter 2008-9: Lowest Rainfall since 1995
--------------


2. (U) Jordan's long-term average rainfall is 228 mm (9
inches),which equates to approximately 780 MCM after
evaporation. The last good rainy season in Jordan occurred
in 2004-5 with 336 mm (13.2 inches),which led to dam storage
reaching about 80% of capacity totaling 217 MCM. NOTE: GOJ
statistics do not include the 110 MCM Unity Dam on the
Yarmouk river along the Jordan-Syria border, which has never
exceeded its 10 MCM dead-storage capacity (ref F). END NOTE.
Since then, Jordan has seen less rainfall but greater water
demand due to rapid economic growth averaging 6% and an
expanding population of nearly six million. The average
Jordanian consumes 170 cubic meters of water per year,
compared to 9,000 cubic meters available to the average U.S.
citizen.


3. (U) Last year during the 2007-8 winter, Jordan only
received 57% of its long-term annual average rainfall, and
dam storage levels were considered to be bad at about 45% of
total capacity. This winter, however, has proven to be even
worse. Jordan's Meteorological Department has recorded the
lowest levels of rainfall since 1995. As of February 22
(roughly two-thirds of the way through the November-April
rainy season),Jordan had reached only 73 mm or 32% of its
annual average rainfall. The GOJ recorded current dam
storage at about 79.4 MCM or 36.8% of total dam capacity. If
the figures were to include the Unity Dam, current dam
storage statistics would look even worse at 24% of total
capacity. Such levels barely meet the strategic reserve
needed to provide farmers with water during drought-like
conditions. According to the MWI, dam storage levels of
60-65% would allow them to "relax" a bit. Estimates of total
annual demand exceed 1,520 MCM, so without additional rain
over the next few months, the GOJ has indicated that the
situation this summer could be extremely difficult.

GOJ Resisting the Declaration of a Drought
--------------


4. (C) MWI Secretary General Maysoun Al-Zoubi and Jordan
Valley Authority (JVA) Secretary General Mousa Jamani
conveyed to ESTH Officer serious concern about an impending
summer water crisis. They thought it unlikely, however, that
the GOJ would declare a summer drought given the possibility
of triggering compensation claims by farmers. NOTE:
Landowners in the Jordan Valley often have water rights
attached to their crops. The JVA is obligated to deliver
water to crops once in the ground. If water resources are
reduced during an official drought, the JVA has to compensate
farmers who do not receive sufficient water for all planted
crops. END NOTE. Given that the King has also pronounced
2009 as the "Year of Agriculture," declaring a drought might
not be a politically palatable option.

Policy Options: Only Trees and Humans Get Water
-------------- --


5. (SBU) The GOJ is examining various policy options to deal
with the water crisis. Jamani noted that "only trees and
humans" will get water in Jordan after the water supply for
summer vegetable crops is cut off on April 30. Even though
municipal needs get priority, the water supply in Amman is
also expected to be reduced this summer by 10% from the prior
year (most parts of Amman currently get roof-top water tanks
filled only one to two days per week). MWI may also buy
water from private well owners to cover municipal water
requirements.

Water Tariffs Unlikely to Increase
--------------


6. (C) The GOJ currently subsidizes the agricultural sector
which consumes 65% of Jordan's water resources while
contributing less than 3% of GDP. The JVA never executed a
plan to raise its agricultural water tariff structure in 2008
(ref C),and Jamani noted "now is not a suitable time to
raise tariffs given that we are likely to cut their water
supply." Al-Zoubi echoed the political sentiment stating
that "Parliament would give us a headache if we were to raise
water tariffs." Al-Zoubi asserted that increasing
agricultural water tariffs for poor farmers without giving
them training in improving their water efficiency would be of
little value. She noted a JVA initiative to train Jordan
Valley farmers in water efficiency, drip irrigation, demand
management, marketing, and planting of less water intensive
cash-crops.

Jordan May Ask Israel for Water Help Again
--------------


7. (C) Jamani noted that Jordan will probably ask Israel for
additional water resources this summer, although the outcome
could depend on Israeli elections and Israel,s own water
shortages. NOTE: Under the 1994 Peace Treaty, Jordan stores
20 MCM of excess water in Lake Tiberius every winter, and
Israel returns this water to Jordan ever summer less
evaporation losses. Over the last few years, Jordan has not
been able to fill its winter storage capacity but has
nonetheless kept receiving summer allocations from Israel.
In 2008, Jordan received a water loan of 11 MCM (ref B). END
NOTE. With USG support, MWI is continuing its cooperation
with Israel and the Palestinians on technical water issues
through the EXACT Water Data Banks project (ref E). Itai
Badov, Political Officer at the Israeli Embassy in Amman,
told ESTH Officer, however, that recent discussions with
Jordan regarding Israel supplying desalinated water to Jordan
have paused due to the Gaza crisis. Badov added that Israel
is suffering its own "one in a hundred years" drought.

Longer Term Solutions: Some Delayed, Others Continue
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) Two large infrastructure projects to increase
Jordan,s water supply have been plagued by delays. Launched
in July 2008, the Disi project to bring 100 MCM of water
annually from the southern Jordan aquifer to Amman has
suffered several funding delays and is not expected to start
before April 2009, with no benefits being seen before 2012.
Similarly, the Red Sea-Dead Sea Canal feasibility study (RDS)
led by the World Bank (ref A) has been delayed to 2010 due to
initial funding gaps, insufficient baseline data, and a delay
in progress meetings due to the Gaza crisis. With the help
of Montgomery Watson Harza, Jordan is still planning a quick
implementation start after the RDS is completed with a
projected operational date of 2017 (ref A).


9. (SBU) The Royal Water Committee, chaired by Prince
Feisal, has prepared and shared with stakeholders a draft
water strategy that is expected to be finalized by April.
USAID (the biggest donor in Jordan,s water sector with over
$600 million invested over the last 10 years) and several
other donors continue to play a key role in assisting MWI in
ongoing water reform initiatives (ref C). The Millennium
Challenge Corporation is also moving forward with
preparations to sign the Compact in 2009 and focus on four
projects in the water sector in the Zarqa area. These
long-term efforts will remain critical for balancing water
demand and supply in Jordan.

Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman


Beecroft