Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09AMMAN2675
2009-12-10 13:46:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Amman
Cable title:  

Visa Validation Study - Iraqi B1/B2s Applying in Jordan

Tags:  KFRD CVIS JO 
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VZCZCAJI472
RR RUEHC RUCNRAQ
DE RUEHAM #2675/01 3441346
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101346Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6490
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002675 

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR CA/FPP

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KFRD CVIS JO
SUBJECT: Visa Validation Study - Iraqi B1/B2s Applying in Jordan

-------
Summary
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002675

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR CA/FPP

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KFRD CVIS JO
SUBJECT: Visa Validation Study - Iraqi B1/B2s Applying in Jordan

--------------
Summary
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1. (SBU) Embassy Amman recently conducted a validation study of
Iraqi visitor visas. The study revealed that over 21% of Iraqis
remained in the United States beyond the duration of stay originally
granted to them by DHS at port of entry. The only clear indicator
of a likelihood to return to the Middle East was a recent history of
successful, timely travel to the United States. Travelers employed
in the oil, construction, and development industries visiting the
United States for business meetings also appeared to comply with
duration-of-stay limits. Interestingly, legal residence in Jordan
was not a factor to support the claim of a strong tie to the Middle
East. Post will refine its adjudication of Iraqi visitor visas as a
result of this study and will continue to monitor travel patterns of
visa recipients.


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Background
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2. (SBU) Since the fall of Saddam Hussein in Spring 2003, U.S.
Embassy Amman has adjudicated over 20,000 Iraqi nonimmigrant visas
with an overall issuance rate of 37%. Whereas Embassy Baghdad now
provides a full range of consular services, it does not yet offer
nonreferral visitor visas due to access issues. For this reason,
significant numbers of Iraqis continue to apply for visitor visas in
Amman where they must overcome the presumption that they are
intending immigrants. This is problematic as the applicants have
already abandoned a home in Iraq on either a short- or a long-term
basis. Some Iraqis are legally resident in Jordan while others are
merely in transit. How can one predict an Iraqi's likelihood to
return to Iraq if they have already left their country?


3. (SBU) Post sought to validate its issuance rates of Iraqi visitor
visas which comprise over 7% of its workload. The goals of this
study were twofold: to gain a better understanding of bona fide
Iraqi visitors to the United States and to be alert to specific
factors that may indicate the person does not intend to return to
the Middle East. If an Iraqi has traveled to the United States
since 2003, Post believes that the person may be likely to depart
the United States after the visit. Post tested this assertion by
conducting a validation study.


4. (SBU) Post's Fraud Prevention Unit (FPU) is an active participant
in Amman's Fraud Control Group (FCG) whose members include several
European nations, Canada, Australia, and the United States. The FCG

meets monthly and exchanges information on a daily and weekly basis
regarding the movement of Iraqis in the region and overseas. Most
FCG member countries refuse the vast majority of Iraqi visitor visa
applicants, recognizing that most are economic or political
migrants, who should be applying for refugee status, not for visitor
visas. And each country notes a very high number of Iraqis who,
when issued a visa, arrive in the host country and soon apply for
asylum. In addition, Amman's FPU learned from U.S. Citizenship and
Immigration Service that a high number of Iraqi medical
professionals issued student visas in Amman to study English in the
United States, applied for asylum upon arrival. (Note: This visa
category represents a smaller data pool than Iraqi visitors and will
be analyzed at a later date.)

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Methodology
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5. (SBU) Post selected six months (July 1 - December 31, 2008) of
Iraqi visitor visa issuances (123 records) to determine what percent
did not depart according to the original entry stamp in their
passport. First, Post extracted records from the Consular
Consolidated Database (CCD) and submitted the data to Consular
Affairs' Fraud Prevention Programs (CA/FPP) to retrieve entry and
exit data from Department of Homeland Security (DHS) databases.
CA/FPP and post were able to confirm travel records for 104 of the
123 visa recipients by accessing the Arrival and Departure
Information Systems (ADIS),the Automated Targeting System (ATS),
and the CCD.


6. (SBU) Post then divided the issuances into two categories: those
who remained in the United States and those who departed. By
reviewing CCD case notes and scanned applications, post analyzed the
following indicators: marital status, country of residency, ties to
Jordan, prior travel to the United States, family in the United
States, purpose of travel, and occupation.

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Results
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7. (SBU) Analysis reveals that over 21% of Iraqis issued visitor
visas who used the visa during that time period had not departed the
United States as of mid-November 2009, a date well beyond the
maximum 6 months' stay granted by DHS upon entry. For this group,
there are no clear markers to associate with their behavior
regarding civil status, residency, existence of family in the United
States, or year they departed Iraq. But only one-fifth had traveled
to the U.S. since 2003. Two-thirds visited family or friends, and
the others traveled for medical reasons. Only three applicants
stated that their purpose of travel was business-related. Nor were
there discernible trends regarding occupation, ranging from
university professor, to real estate, restaurant owner, electronic
engineer, and housewife.


8. (SBU) Regarding the 83 Iraqis who complied with the terms of
their visa, approximately half had prior travel to the United
States, and most had visited since 2003. Equal numbers were
resident in Jordan as in Iraq and half had family in the United
States. Most traveled to visit family and friends, one-third
traveled for business, and less than 10% traveled for medical
reasons. Business travelers worked primarily in the fields of
energy (25%),construction (15%),and international development
(15%).

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Conclusion
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9. (SBU) Post concludes that Iraqis applying for tourist visas who
have traveled to the United States since 2003 are the best indicator
of someone who will adhere to the 'admit until' limit stamped into
the passport upon arrival. Those who work in fields relevant to
Iraq reconstruction and revitalization (oil, construction, and
international development) who are traveling for business, also
appear to be strong candidates who will depart the country after
their trip. In contrast, those who lack prior, recent travel who
are visiting relatives are more likely to remain in the United
States, either as a simple overstay, or by adjusting to legal
permanent resident status, or by filing an asylum claim.


10. (SBU) Post's analysis did not identify any notable difference
between travelers who remained and those who departed with regards
to their marital status, country of residence, ties to Jordan, or
family in the United States. Previously, post assumed that Iraqis
who held Jordanian residency could be viewed as having good ties to
the Middle East and would be likely to return to Jordan or Iraq
after a visit. It is significant that this study shows that whether
an Iraqi is resident in Jordan, or in Iraq, has no apparent bearing
on overstays. The only clear indicator that an Iraqi may depart the
United States in a timely fashion is a history of recent travel to
the United States. And a second positive aspect is the business
traveler who works in one of the aforementioned fields and wants to
participate in a meeting or conference in America.


11. (SBU) Although Iraqi applications in Amman are decreasing on an
annual basis, Post has seen a slight increase recently in the number
of Iraqi visitor visa applications. Several factors could be at
play here, ranging from a natural by-product of the revitalization
of the Iraqi economy, to the higher issuance rates at Embassy Amman
(now over 42%, up from a 6-year cumulative average of 37%). Post
will strengthen its adjudications in light of this data and will
continue to validate Iraqi issuances for other indicators of
legitimate travel according to the visitor visa guidelines.

MANDEL