JORDAN: KING DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT AND CALLS FOR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002563

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2019
TAGS: JO PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: JORDAN: KING DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT AND CALLS FOR
EARLY ELECTIONS

REF: A. A. AMMAN 2097

B. B. AMMAN 2098

Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4(b) and (d
)


1. (S//NF) SUMMARY: King Abdullah issued two royal decrees
late yesterday, the first to dissolve parliament effective
today and the second to call for early parliamentary
elections. The reasons behind the dissolution include an
impasse between parliament and the government, and increased
public discontent, a combination that gave the King an
opportunity to dissolve parliament and enact political
reforms. The constitution stipulates a 4 month timeframe for
elections and the convening of a new parliament, but Embassy
contacts imply that the stipulation may not be met.
(Parliaments in 2007 and 2001 also did not meet the 4 month
requirement, because Abdullah can constitutionally extend the
timeframe for up to 3 additional months under special
circumstances. Senior Jordanian officials told the
Ambassador that the lack of a functioning electoral law
qualified as a special circumstance.) Reactions to the
decision have been largely positive, but that is likely to
erode among the King's East Bank constituency in the coming
months if reforms become a political reality. While the
dissolution of parliament is not a surprise, the timing of
the decision was unexpected by Embassy contacts outside a
small group of senior Jordanian officials. The Embassy
assesses that the Jordanian government is sincere in its
efforts to reform the electoral system, but it will face
serious challenges.


2. (S//NF) In discussing the option of dissolution, Royal
Court and government contacts have told the Ambassador over
the past several months that the reasons supporting
dissolution are threefold:

-- Relations between parliament and the government have
broken down to the point where no serious legislation could
move through the system. The few laws that were passed had
been so distorted during the amendment process that the law
as written was meaningless.

-- The public and the press were largely unhappy with
parliament to such an extent that the pubic mood was
affecting the King's own popularity. Abdullah was seen as
the only one who could break the impasse.

-- The lack of meaningful legislative movement and the
public's discontent with parliament offered the King an
opportunity to dissolve parliament and enact meaningful
electoral reforms.


What Comes Next?
--------------


3. (S//NF) Under the constitution, elections must be held
and the new parliament must convene within 4 months of the
date of dissolution. If elections do not take place within
that timeframe, and the King does not extend it, the
constitution says that the dissolved House will reassemble
and assume its full constitutional powers as if the
dissolution had not taken place. However, parliaments in
2007 and 2001 were granted an extended period, and the new
parliament is likely to benefit from a similarly long
timeframe.


4. (S//NF) Without a parliament, the government can
constitutionally implement so-called "temporary" laws (reftel
A and B) and is likely to move on several laws that were
caught in the legislative impasse before elections take
place. Court and government contacts anticipate that
elections will be held during summer 2010. At a minimum,
this action will include introducing a budget, a provisional
income tax law--a measure that the now-dissolved parliament
rejected during its last session--and a provisional electoral
law, which is already drafted and ready to be used, according
to one Embassy contact.


Dissolution Was Anticipated
--------------


5. (S//NF) Many Embassy contacts outside senior Jordanian
government circles are surprised by the timing of last
night's decision, but the move was a long considered measure
by the King, Royal Court Chief Nasser Lozi, and GID Director
Mohammad Raqqad. All available contacts have expressed their
approval. NGO, Ministry of Interior, and PSD contacts have
all endorsed the decision and say it is a positive move by

AMMAN 00002563 002 OF 002


the King that has been long awaited. (The agreement amongst
such disparate organizations highights the fact that
observers are seeing what they want to see in terms of what
the dissolution means for them.) Embassy contacts at
Jordanian think tanks and universities say there are no
regrets over the decision. Even the Secretary General of the
now-dissolved parliament, Fayez Al-Shawabkah, says the King
is exercising his constitutional powers and that it was
motivated by a real desire to improve politics in Jordan.
Popular opinion also appears to be solidly in favor of the
decision.


Decision Is Not Without Some Critics
--------------


6. (S//NF) Despite a largely positive reaction to
parliament's dissolution, some opposition lawmakers are
accusing the government of ousting parliament in order to
pass legislation that the parliament would not. Others say
the decision came too late--prominent opposition figure Tajun
Faysal speculates that it "was no longer popular" for that
reason.


7. (S//NF) Comment: The Embassy believes this move
represents the best opportunity for meaningful structural
political reform in Jordan, but reform will be highly
controversial and we expect that enormous pressure will be
applied by some elements of Jordanian society to limit it.
Although the King's decision to dissolve parliament has been
largely popular, its popularity is like to fade quickly among
East Bankers if meaningful reforms actually take place.
However, if meaningful reforms do not happen, it probably
will undermine the government's credibility among
Palestinian-Jordanians and others seeking a genuine voice in
the Jordanian political system.
Beecroft