Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09AMMAN2493
2009-11-16 16:20:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Amman
Cable title:  

JORDAN-U.S. JOINT MILITARY COMMISSION SCENESETTER

Tags:  MOPS PREL PGOV PINS JO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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R 161620Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 AMMAN 002493 

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2019
TAGS: MOPS PREL PGOV PINS JO
SUBJECT: JORDAN-U.S. JOINT MILITARY COMMISSION SCENESETTER

Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 AMMAN 002493

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2019
TAGS: MOPS PREL PGOV PINS JO
SUBJECT: JORDAN-U.S. JOINT MILITARY COMMISSION SCENESETTER

Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S//NF) SUMMARY: This Joint Military Commission comes at
a time when Jordan is increasing its contributions both in
Afghanistan and to broader regional security, offering Syria
an Arab alternative to Iranian influence, and maintaining its
focus on a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. Jordan has redoubled its efforts to develop solid
ties with Baghdad. At the same time, Amman perceives U.S.
military financial support as not keeping pace with the level
of Jordanian contributions. Despite the 2008 Memorandum of
Understanding on foreign assistance, Foreign Military Finance
(FMF) in 2009 fell below 2008 levels (when 2008 supplemental
appropriations are considered). Supplemental appropriations
in 2009 were forward-financed, directly reducing our FMF
commitment for 2010. Jordan has so far been disappointed
with our lack of commitment to leave behind or store military
equipment redeploying through Jordan from Iraq. End Summary.


Middle East Peace
--------------


2. (S//NF) Jordan continues to play a central role in
fostering Middle East peace and a two-state solution to the
Arab-Israeli conflict. Both the King and his Foreign
Minister Naser Joudeh maintain steady pressure on other Arab
states to offer modest deliverables to Israel. The King's
efforts, which have met with some success, seek tangible
steps such as overflight permission for Israeli air traffic,
linking telecommunications networks with Israel, and reducing
restrictions on travelers who have transited Israel.


3. (S//NF) Given his public backing of U.S. attempts to
restart Middle East Peace negotiations, the King views the
lack of progress as damaging to his credibility. This damage
could limit his ability to play a constructive role in the
future. At the same time, Jordanian officials consistently
express concern that Jordan will be asked to assume a degree
of guardianship over the West Bank, a move which many believe
would alter Jordan's demographic makeup in ways that

ultimately threaten its Hashemite rule.

Iraq
--------------


4. (C) Jordan has been a leader in engaging with Iraq,
using engagement to promote bilateral trade and encouraging
Iraq to build stronger ties with Arab states rather than with
Iran. As evidence of the proactive Jordanian position the
King became the first Arab Head of State to visit Baghdad, in
July 2008, and has named an Ambassador to Iraq. The King
supports Prime Minister Maliki and sees progress as slow, but
moving in the right direction. Senior Jordanian leaders have
become concerned that increasing tensions between the central
government and the Kurdistan Region will erupt in violent
conflict and are skeptical that Iraq can maintain stability
as U.S. forces withdraw.


5. (S) In response to a request by General Odierno to
provide capacity-building assistance to the Iraqi Ministries
of Defense and Interior, Jordan has hosted visits of Iraqi
officers to learn about border security operations on the
Syrian border and observe military cooperation through joint
exercises with CENTCOM. Jordan has hosted Iraqis at two
recent seminars aimed at building the Iraqi capacity to
manage their own Foreign Military Sales workload. Jordan has
also said it will send a Defense Attach to Baghdad, but has
not yet made plans to do so.


6. (S) Jordan signed a Technical Agreement with CENTCOM in
July, laying the groundwork for redeployment of U.S. forces
and equipment from Iraq through Jordan. In November, the
first set of U.S. Brigade Combat Team (BCT) equipment
redeployed through Jordan, signaling an appreciable increase
in throughput. Over the course of the next eight months,
nine additional BCT sets of equipment will transit Jordan en
route to the port of Aqaba and ultimately to the U.S.
Redeployment represents a significant boon to the Jordanian
economy: $15.1M in 2009. The military and political
leadership of Jordan has been disappointed that the U.S. has
so far not committed to leave much equipment behind in Jordan
to be donated, refurbished, or stored.

Iran
--------------

AMMAN 00002493 002 OF 004




7. (S//NF) Jordan is concerned about Iranian influence in
the region, particularly the potentially destabilizing effect
of an Iranian nuclear program, support for Hizballah and
Hamas, and Iran's links with Iraq and Syria. The King
believes that the recent post-election violence in Iran
exposes deep fissures in the Iranian polity that "makes the
Supreme Leader look a bit less supreme," forcing Iran's
leadership to turn inward on domestic issues and limiting
their freedom and resources to act internationally. Fear
remains that Iran will try to counter these perceptions with
a dramatic act.


8. (S//NF) Jordan's senior leadership draws a direct link
between the willingness of Arab states to counter Iran, and
progress on Middle East peace, saying that Israeli and
Sunni-Arab interests are perfectly aligned with respect to
Iran. Arab governments are restricted in their ability to
deal with Iran, they say, so long as Iran is seen as
supporting the Palestinians against Israel. Realization of
the two-state solution would consolidate the regional
consensus against Iran, Jordan believes.

Syria
--------------


9. (S/NF) Jordan has increased its engagement with Syria in
the last few months in an attempt to provide it with an
alternative to its alignment with Iran. The King and Syrian
President Bashar Al Assad met at the Arab League Summit in
March 2009. Reciprocal visits in March and April were
followed by the King's Ramadan (September) visit to Syria.
The meetings led to further working level meetings that
produced agreements on a number of initiatives, including
border demarcation, customs procedures, and commercial
transport.


10. (S) Jordanian leadership assesses that although Syria
has been vocal in its demand for a return of the Golan
Heights and in its opposition to Israeli occupation of
Palestinian territories, its most salient goals at this time
are to secure economic assistance and political
rehabilitation in the region. Jordan is pressing the U.S. to
engage Syria in bilateral discussions in hopes that direct
talks will challenge Damascus to make measurable changes and
simultaneously allow Washington to determine whether Al Assad
is serious about progress.

Domestic Politics
--------------


11. (S/NF) King Abdullah's political reform efforts have
stalled in recent years due to the conservative political
establishment, a recalcitrant bureaucracy, a dysfunctional
Parliament, and a dearth of tangible successes in Middle East
Peace. Conversely, progress along the Middle East Peace
process would create much-needed political and social "cover"
for the King's reform program enabling him to pursue broad
changes with less distraction from Palestinian issues. We
have been urging the Jordanians to re-invigorate reforms,
expanding political space for civil society, pressing
electoral changes aimed at a more representative, inclusive
system, and further loosening of state control over the
economy. The King's economic and political changes face
domestic opposition from tribal leaders and an array of
entrenched East Bank interests that include many in the
military, security services and bureaucracy. The King still
has the power to initiate change across the spectrum, but
only if he is fully determined to pursue it.


12. (S//NF) Jordan made progress on the economic front:
buying back debt, eliminating subsidies, and promoting a
trade-based, market-oriented economy. The positive effects
of those measures are starting to wane, in part, a
ramification of the global financial crisis, but also due to
poor budget management and poor management of its limited
water and energy resources. Jordan is one of the world's
most water-poor nations and is moving aggressively on
independent and regional initiatives to address its water
needs. GAMA, a Turkish company partially owned by General
Electric was awarded an $800 million contract to pump water
from Southern Jordan's Disi aquifer to Amman. Jordan also
announced in May, the unilateral $10 billion Jordan Red Sea
Development Project to convey water from the Red Sea to the
Dead Sea to generate hydropower, operate a desalination
plant, and provide potable water for Jordan (and potentially
for Israel and the Palestinian Authority, according to

AMMAN 00002493 003 OF 004


Jordan),although it is unclear whether Jordan can secure the
requisite funding to begin the project.


13. (S//NF) Jordan's economy is also affected by its energy
needs. Jordan is a net importer of energy and thus subject
to market fluctuations for oil prices. It imports fuel from
Iraq but poor infrastructure limits import quantities, which
must travel overland by tanker truck. Consequently, the
discount offered barely offsets transportation costs. Jordan
sees nuclear energy as its future and the King has placed a
priority on developing a civilian nuclear energy program. The
GOJ is anxious to sign a Nuclear Cooperation Agreement (NCA)
with the United States, required for U.S. companies to
provide nuclear reactors, fuel or materials. NCA negotiations
are currently stalled however, with the Chairman of the
Jordan Atomic Energy Commission objecting to assurances
sought by the U.S. that Jordan will not refine or enrich
Uranium in Jordan. Meanwhile, the GOJ continues to advance
its nuclear energy program and has signed either MOUs or NCAs
with the United States, China, France, the UK and a number of
other co
untries.

Military Assistance and Cooperation
--------------


14. (C) The U.S.-Jordan mil-to-mil relationship is among
the most extensive in the region. In September 2008, an MOU
on Foreign Assistance was signed with Jordan that included a
commitment to $300 million annually in Foreign Military
Finance (FMF) through 2014. This year Congress allocated
$150 million (of the $300 million) in forward-financed FMF to
Jordan through the Supplemental Appropriation (which will
reduce the FMF commitment for 2010.) Although these
assistance levels are substantial, Jordan is sensitive to
decreases in FMF from the height of the war in Iraq when
Jordan received large supplemental appropriations. For
example, combined FMF was $497 million in 2008, $307 million
in 2007, and $305 million in 2006. Our currently baseline
commitment to FMF for 2010 is $150 million. Individual
Military Education and Training (IMET) funding remains at $3M
per year, one of the largest IMET budgets worldwide. The
program pays immense dividends, developing strong
professional bonds between U.S. and JAF
officer corps.


15. (C) Jordan makes significant contributions to U.S.
regional security priorities. In July 2009, Jordan deployed
a 712-soldier Ranger Battalion to Logar Province in
Afghanistan to provide election security (TF 222). The JAF
has approved the second six-month battalion deployment in
support of OEF, despite the cost (pay entitlements) and risk
to their soldiers' safety. JAF leaders have intimated that
they would advocate even larger-scale deployments (a
brigade),if the pay/entitlement expense were not so
burdensome. In October, Jordan deployed the second rotation
of a Special Operations company (TF 111) that conducts combat
operations alongside U.S. Special Forces. In May, Jordan
completed a donation of 10 M60 tanks to Lebanon. Lebanon has
requested an additional 55 tanks. Earlier this month Jordan
signed an agreement with Yemen to provide 25 M113 Armored
Personnel Carriers. Jordan has offered to assist with other
deployments, counter-piracy missions, and to host training
courses and exercises for I
raqi, Lebanese, and other forces, but remains dependent on
external financial support to fund its contributions. Jordan
continues to supply forces to U.N. sponsored Peace-Keeping
Operations around the world.


16. (S) Despite the high levels of FMF and other security
assistance, Jordan continues to request additional financial
resources from external sources to make each contribution to
regional security possible. For example, the Lebanon and
Yemen donations were financed with funds from the UAE.
Training programs for regional forces are financed through
U.S. Anti-Terrorist Assistance (ATA) funds or the U.S.
Security Coordinator (USSC). In addition, Jordanian law
stipulates that its soldiers deployed overseas are entitled
to approximately $1,700 monthly in combat pay, which has been
financed through the United Nations for peacekeeping
operations. Jordan has not yet identified a source of combat
pay funding for its Afghanistan deployments but is hopeful
NATO will contribute.


17. (S) Jordan has used its FMF to improve its border
security and defensive capabilities remaining cognizant of
interoperability with U.S. forces. We are concerned that

AMMAN 00002493 004 OF 004


Jordan has focused too heavily on acquiring expensive new
technology and needs to place more emphasis on the training
and maintenance needs of existing programs.
Beecroft