JORDAN: ABBAS'S ANNOUNCEMENT VIEWED AS "SERIOUS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 002450

SIPDIS

NEA/ELA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAL IS JO
SUBJECT: JORDAN: ABBAS'S ANNOUNCEMENT VIEWED AS "SERIOUS,
BUT NOT FINAL"

Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d)


1. (C) Summary: Jordanian media and MFA contacts analyzed
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's November 5 announcement
that he intended not to run in the next presidential
election. Most agree that Abbas used his press conference to
express deep disappointment about the status of peace
negotiations and the perceived U.S. unwillingness to pressure
Israel, but that his exact words indicated that his decision
was potentially reversible. End Summary.

Media Sees Announcement as "End of Illusion" for Arab
Moderates
--------------


2. (C) On November 8, two leading Jordanian newspapers
featured editorials devoted to Abbas's announcement. The
Chief Editor of Al-Arab Al-Yawm Arabic daily said that this
announcement confirmed that "Arab moderates have lost a great
deal by wagering too much on American administrations." The
editorial went on to state that "all bets are off now" and
that "the resignation -- or intention to resign -- provides
one more lesson to the Arab moderate countries, namely that
the current balance of power will not produce peace based on
the Arab Initiative, the Roadmap, or even Resolution 242."


3. (C) Al-Ghad Arabic daily carried the comments of a leading
political analyst who said, "Although it is too early to
declare an end to the Abbas era, the announcement is a
genuine end to illusions for Arab moderates who hoped for the
U.S. Administration to put pressure on Israel." He added
that the "announcement represents a major turning point and
signals that we are at the threshold of a different stage" in
regional relations. The analyst went further by speculating
what this specifically means for Jordan. In a clear
reference to public statements about Jordan as an alternate
homeland for the Palestinians, the analyst expressed concern
about "the right-wing Israeli government taking clear
antagonistic stances towards Jordan" and warned that Jordan
"must not stay in the current game" lest it reach the same
impasse that Abbas has encountered.

MFA Contacts Say Distress Is Real, But Resignation Likely Is
Not
--------------


4. (C) On November 8, PolChief met with the Director of the
Foreign Minister's Personal Office and also the Director of
the MFA's North America Bureau. Both believe that the speech
is a reflection of the genuine personal distress that Abbas
is experiencing at this juncture of the peace negotiations.
They believe that this is not an empty gesture and the
announcement should be viewed with serious concern. "You
really do need to keep Abbas at the table; this is not the
time to change major players." However, both contacts noted
the specific language used in the televised speech, which
highlighted Abbas's "intention" not to seek reelection. They
believe that this leaves Abbas plenty of room to maneuver at
a later date should he, indeed, decide to run for office.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) Jordanian interlocutors clearly picked up the fact
that Abbas was only announcing his "intention to resign."
However, they are concerned that this speech is the latest in
a series of events which have led to an increasing level of
pessimism about the prospect for regional peace. This is of
concern to Jordanian leaders, who have stated that pessimism
creates a fertile ground for radical elements in both Jordan
and the region, which will be detrimental to stability. End
Comment.
Beecroft