Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09AITTAIPEI63
2009-01-15 09:41:00
UNCLASSIFIED
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Cable title:  

MEDIA REACTION: OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, CROSS-STRAIT

Tags:  OPRC KMDR KPAO TW 
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R 150941Z JAN 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0752
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8881
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0333
UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000063 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, CROSS-STRAIT
RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000063

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, CROSS-STRAIT
RELATIONS


1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused January
15 news coverage on the Taipei District Prosecutors' Office's search
of the Presidential Office Wednesday and the arrest of two
Presidential Office staffers for allegedly spying on behalf of
China; and on the Control Yuan's decision Wednesday to impeach two
former high-ranking government officials over a diplomatic scandal
involving Papua New Guinea. In terms of editorials and
commentaries, an editorial in the pro-unification "United Daily
News" discussed the global economic crisis and the possible
emergence of international protectionism. The article said that
whether the new U.S. President Barack Obama will take large strides
toward protectionism deserves close observation. An op-ed in the
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" discussed the
Taiwan policy speech recently delivered by Chinese President Hu
Jintao, in which he mentioned the idea of building a cross-Strait
military confidence-building mechanism. The article concluded by
saying, "Taiwan should work with the U.S. in any trilateral military
dialogues." End summary.


2. Obama Administration

"Is International Protectionism about to Emerge?"

The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000]
editorialized (1/14):

"... As a result, the Israeli-Palestinian issue will be the first
quiz on international issues for Barack Obama when he assumes
office, and whether he will move drastically toward the direction of
protectionism will be his first test in economics. The fact that
'Business Week' in the U.S. has been featuring such an issue [i.e.
Obama and protectionism] as its cover story over the past few weeks
shows that one should not underestimate its importance; in
particular, trade issues between the United States and China deserve
[our] close attention.

"The United States has been in favorable circumstances over the past
twenty-five years; its imports have drastically increased from
constituting 9 percent of the U.S.' GDP to 18 percent.
Correspondingly, the employed population in the U.S. manufacturing
industry has declined from 17 million to 13 million over the past
twenty-five years. According to the U.S. statistics, the market
share of China's clothing business is now over fifty percent and,

while approximately a dozen of major U.S. steel plants were closed
recently, one after the other, China's exports of steel pipe to the
United States are growing each month. These are all the examples
cited by the liberals who advocate protectionism. Since Obama
himself has previously expressed a tendency to move toward
protectionism in terms of automobiles from South Korea and products
made in China, how he will deal with the conflicting issues of free
trade and resolving the unemployment problem will be closely watched
by everyone. In addition, Obama said rescuing the economy should
trump the budget fight -- an effort that will cause government debt
to reach US$1.2 trillion in 2009. Washington has also repeated many
times its demand that China and petroleum exporting countries move
their foreign exchange reserves to help with the economic lacunae of
the United States.

"Will the United States use protectionism as a tool to exercise
pressure on foreign reserves at some point? Or will [Obama] be held
on a short leash by the liberals and eventually resort to
protectionism? These are trends worthy of close observation. Once
a protectionism policy is implemented, a global economic storm will
certainly ensue and worsen and no one, including Taiwan, will be
able to escape by sheer luck. This is the reason why we must watch
[this trend] closely!"


3. Cross-Strait Relations

"A Closer Look at Hu's 'Six Proposals'"

Yu Tsung-chi, a senior fellow of the U.S.-based Atlantic Council,
opined in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
[circulation: 30,000] (1/15):

"... Hu's six-point proposal is a response to Ma's policies, which
appear to be accepting China's ultimate goal of eventual
unification. ... However, issues such as military
confidence-building mechanisms are very sensitive, as they touch on
Taiwan's sovereignty and national security. Given the dissensions on
'one China' within Taiwan and the possibly negative impact on
bilateral relations between Taipei and Washington, Taiwan should be
cautious and patient before responding. To prevent possible
reactions at home and aboard, Taiwan's military interactions with
China must be openly negotiated between China and Taiwan, between
Taiwan and the US, and between China and the US. The existing US
arms sale policy to Taiwan should not be affected by improving
cross-strait military relations. Taiwan should work with the US in
RELATIONS

any trilateral military dialogues. In particular, Taipei should
consult with Washington on how to construct a durable
confidence-building mechanism without impairing its national
interests because, unlike Beijing, Taiwan doesn't have much
experience in negotiating military issues.

"Taiwan should also establish measures to prevent divergent
viewpoints from further polarizing and debilitating the nation.
Confidence-building mechanisms can only reduce the risk of war --
they cannot guarantee against war. Taiwan should not disarm
psychologically if China decreases the number of missiles targeting
it. After all, China holds all the cards in terms of the missiles.
Removing them would be purely symbolic as they could easily be
redeployed overnight."

YOUNG