MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000413

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS


1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused April 7
news coverage on the fraud scandals involving several high-ranking
Taiwan military officials; on the year-end city mayors' and country
magistrates' elections; on a Taiwan fishing boat which was hijacked
by Somali pirates in the Indian Ocean Monday; and on the powerful
earthquake that rocked Italy Monday.


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, several editorial pieces
centered on the recently-concluded G-20 summit in London and its
connection to U.S.-China-Taiwan relations. An editorial in the
pro-independence "Liberty Times" said that China has seized the
opportunity of the G-20 to demanding that other countries give
political payback by offering their confirmation of China's stance
on the Taiwan and Tibetan issues. An editorial in the
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" said that a
worrying development for Taiwan was "Washington's move toward the
creation of a 'G2' with China, an exclusive US-China relationship
that would go well beyond cooperation on economic matters and enter
the strategic sphere." A separate "Taipei Times" op-ed piece,
written by a U.S. professor of strategy at the Naval War College in
Rhode Island, discussed the recent standoff between U.S. survey
ships and Chinese vessels in the South China Sea. The article urged
the United States to "renew its political commitment to Asia while
bolstering its naval posture." An editorial in the
pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" discussed the
meeting between U.S. President Barack Obama and his Chinese
counterpart Hu Jintao on the margins of the G-20 meeting. The
article concluded that "the Obama administration should constantly
keep in mind the importance of upholding Taiwan's democratic process
in cross-strait relations and should ... remind international
society that the effective promotion of democracy and human rights
in China itself must remain essential elements in any 'positive,
cooperative and comprehensive' relations with an authoritarian and
expansionist PRC." End summary.


3. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations

A) "How Can the [Taiwan] People Sit back and Watch the Ma
Administration Push Taiwan's Future into the Graveyard?"

The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 700,000]
editorialized (4/7):

"The G-20 summit in London ended last week, but its impact and
implications on Taiwan have just started to show. China seized a
tough moment when the financial tsunami that has broken out in the
United States is causing economic recession in the world, and it
attempted with all it has to manage the 'rise of its position' [in
the international community] following its economic rise. [China's
attempt] was reflected in Hu Jintao's strong need to establish his
achievements in history -- namely, to assure that [he] will push
forward 'unification' [with Taiwan,] which has never been easy to
achieve by any [Chinese] leader since the founding of the Chinese
Communist government. The issue regarding Taiwan's sovereignty, as
a result, has borne the first brunt and become a target that [China]
stares at maliciously and covetously. ...

"On the surface, the G-20 meeting concluded with various economic
stimulus plans of international cooperation as its major
accomplishment to save the global crisis. But behind it, China
conveniently took advantage of such a group meeting among big
nations to demand political payback from other countries in a
high-profile manner. In his meeting with Hu, [U.S. President
Barack] Obama, a 'freshman' in the international community, directly
encountered the 'confirmation' of [China's stance on] the Taiwan and
Tibetan issues. ... Such signals, which maliciously encroach on the
sovereignty of Taiwan or the Republic of China, were sent many days
ago. Yet our Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as if in a completely
vegetative state, was totally unprepared and presented zero
contingency planning when faced with consistently severe
interpellation from both ruling party and opposition legislators
yesterday. ... The fact that the [Ma] regime is at its wit's end
toward the drifting state of Taiwan as a nation is in reality akin
to murdering the 'Republic of China'. It does not matter much if Ma
Ying-jeou were "wiped out' by Hu Jintao, but how can numerous Taiwan
people sit back and watch Ma's incapability to command [the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs], thereby sending our nation's future into the
graveyard?"

B) "Can Taiwan Survive Historical Forces?"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
30,000] editorialized (4/7):

"... Another worrying development - again something that is well
beyond the ability of Taiwanese to control - is Washington's move
toward the creation of a 'G2' with China, an exclusive US-China
relationship that would go well beyond cooperation on economic
matters and enter the strategic sphere. Should this come into being,

the forces of history could very well engulf Taiwan. Already, major
allies of the US in the Asia-Pacific region, such as Japan and
India, have voiced concern at the emergence of a "G2," which they
perceive as a plot by Beijing to undermine their influence in the
region. Western observers, including Dennis Wilder, a visiting
fellow at the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings
Institution, have been receptive to those fears and highlighted the
downsides.

"'We [the US] have far more in common with our allies and the
region's democracies than with China,' Wilder wrote in the
Washington Post last week. And yet, not once did Wilder, a former
senior director for East Asian affairs at the National Security
Council, mention Taiwan. This is a telling omission. If giants like
Japan and India risk being undermined by a US-China 'G2,' one can
only wonder what the arrangement entails for the future of this
country. As the saying goes, when elephants fight, it's the grass
that suffers. In a time when the giants of this world have their
eyes fixed on the global economy and increasingly see China as an
indispensable ally, small states are likely to be pushed around -
and perhaps sacrificed. Unless Taiwan starts making noise now, it
could very well become the first 'inevitable' democratic casualty of
the force of history that is the global financial crisis."

C) "The PLA Navy Sails the South China Sea"

James Holmes, associate professor of strategy at the Naval War
College, Newport, Rhode Island, opined in the pro-independence,
English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] (4/7):

"US leaders should not be surprised at China's vehemence toward US
maritime operations in the South China Sea. Nor is this merely a
passing phase in China's rise. As the Chinese economy grows more and
more dependent on seaborne commerce passing through the Strait of
Malacca and as the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy extends its
seaward reach, Beijing will take an increasingly forceful approach
to Southeast Asian affairs. By no means is armed conflict
inevitable, but Washington should expect Beijing to mount a
persistent challenge. It may even try to recast the US-led maritime
order in Asia to suit Chinese preferences. Stronger powers tend to
push for legal interpretations favorable to themselves, and they
tend to get their way. Redefining its offshore "exclusive economic
zone," or EEZ, as sovereign waters would let China forbid many
foreign naval activities in maritime Southeast Asia.

"Beijing's ambitions are no secret. Chinese law claims virtually the
whole South China Sea as territorial waters. Recent harassment by
Chinese vessels of two US survey ships operating in international
waters - but within China's EEZ, south of Hainan Province - is
probably just the start of Sino-US wrangling over maritime law. If
Beijing's view wins out, the South China Sea will in effect become a
Chinese lake, especially as the PLA Navy increases its capacity to
put steel behind China's maritime territorial claims. ... The US
must renew its political commitment to Asia while bolstering its
naval posture. Otherwise, Washington will abdicate its maritime
leadership."

D) "What Obama-Hu Meet Means for Taiwan"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation:
20,000] editorialized (4/7):

"The first meeting between United States President Barack Obama and
People's Republic of China State Chairman and ruling Chinese
Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao on the sidelines of the
'Group of 20 countries' summit held in London last week sent a
worrying message to Taiwan and other regional U.S. allies. ...
After all, U.S. allies in Asia are deeply concerned that
Washington's search for a solution to its worst postwar economic
downturn may induce the Obama administration to go beyond expanded
strategic economic and political dialogues with the PRC and develop
a full-blown strategic partnership and could cause a 'China first'
policy to outweigh the US's long-term 'Asian policy.' While the
result may be short of the feared 'G2,' the Obama administration
does seem to have elevated the economy into the main axis of its
'multi-track' foreign policy. Naturally, our main concern is the
implications of these trends for Taiwan. The Obama administration
has been supportive of the cross-strait "reconciliation" pursued by
the Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) administration of
President Ma Ying-jeou during the past 10 months, which seem to
accord with Washington's primary concerns with 'peace and
stability.' ...

The U.S. may choose not to interfere with the efforts of the Ma
administration to promote 'reconciliation' under a 'one-China
framework' supposedly based on the so-called 'Consensus of 1992,' so
long as the process is 'peaceful.' However, it remains uncertain how
Obama and his Democratic administration would react if such a
'reconciliation' process was 'undemocratic' and turned into a


'gradual unification' arranged under the table through the secretive
KMT-CCP dialogue, beyond the reach of Taiwan's democratic
mechanisms. Moreover, Hu's remarks on Taiwan undermined the
theoretical underpinning of Ma's policy by effectively refuting the
KMT administration's claim that Beijing was flexible on its 'one
China principle,' which insists that Taiwan is part of the PRC. ...

"Moreover, the fact that the PRC has made no concessions or
reductions of its military threat to Taiwan despite Ma's olive
branches suggests that uncertainties and possible danger of conflict
are still embedded in cross-strait relations. Hence, the Obama
administration should constantly keep in mind the importance of
upholding Taiwan's democratic process in cross-strait relations and
should itself remind international society that the effective
promotion of democracy and human rights in China itself must remain
essential elements in any 'positive, cooperative and comprehensive'
relations with an authoritarian and expansionist PRC."

YOUNG