MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS, NORTH KOREA

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000365

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS, NORTH KOREA


1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused March
28-30 news coverage on the legislative by-election in a district of
Taipei City Saturday, in which the KMT narrowly defeated the DPP; on
Taiwan's economic prospects; and on developments in cross-Strait
relations. The pro-unification "United Daily News" ran a banner
headline on page four March 30, reading "Separated by Sixty Years,
Militaries on Both Sides [of the Taiwan Strait] Are Expected to Have
First Contact [in Hawaii in August]."


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the
pro-independence "Liberty Times" discussed the Pentagon's annual
report on China's military power and lashed out at what it believes
to be the Ma Ying-jeou Administration's pro-China policy. A
"Liberty Times" op-ed piece said that what is implied in the
Pentagon report differs significantly from the recent remarks by AIT
Chairman Raymond Burghardt, and the difference indicates that
Washington has paid little attention to Taiwan. The article warned
that China will soon gain full control of the Taiwan Strait if
Washington continues to pay no heed to the area. A separate
"Liberty Times" column criticized the Ma Administration for ignoring
the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA),continuing to push its allegedly
pro-China policy and distancing itself from the United States. A
"United Daily News" analysis, on the other hand, discussed the
possibly of contact between military officials on both sides of the
Taiwan Strait in Hawaii in August. The article said the trend shows
that the Obama Administration will not sacrifice Taiwan just to
curry favor with China, and that as long as Taiwan is not a
troublemaker, Washington will maintain a friendly relationship with
Taiwan. An op-ed piece in the pro-independence, English-language
"Taipei Times," written by Hawaii-based freelance writer Richard
Halloran, also discussed the Pentagon report and said the United
States has "shown a distinct shift in tone" by making more firm and
candid comments than previous appraisals on China's military
development. An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language
"Taiwan News" discussed the 30-year-old Taiwan Relations Act and
urged U.S. President Barack Obama to "reaffirm TRA to manifest
Washington's resolve to maintain stable U.S.-Taiwan relations."
With regard to North Korea, a column in the mass-circulation "Apple
Daily" called Pyongyang's plan to launch a satellite a move to stage
a virtual crisis in order to grab the United States' attention. End
summary.


3. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations

A) "[Pentagon's] Report on China's Military Power Bursts the Wishful
Thinking of the Ma Administration"

The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 700,000]
editorialized (3/28):

"The United States published its annual report on China's military
power Wednesday, which pointed out that China is rapidly increasing
its military power and developing new military technologies in an
attempt to break the military balance in East Asia or [create] a
bigger range. ... We believe that this report has not only burst
the Ma Administration's wishful thinking toward the Chinese
government, but it has also highlighted China's double-handed
strategy of playing with peace and war to annex our country. Our
fellow countrymen must not just sit back and watch such a danger
signal, which will bring serious threats to our national security
and survival. ... As a result, not only is the United States
seriously concerned about China's exuberant evil ambitions, but
China's neighboring countries, such as Japan and India, have also
elevated their vigilance and sought proactively to cope with [such a
development]. By contrast, Taiwan's ruling Chinese Nationalist
Party still harbors a fantasy about China. ... What must be
emphasized here is that the use of force is merely one of the means
that China will use to obtain Taiwan; to annex [the island] without
a war is [Beijing's true] smug calculation."

B) "Watch out For China Gaining Control over the Taiwan Strait"

Lai I-chung, Executive Committee member of the Taiwan Thinktank,
opined in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation:
700,000] (3/28):

"The United States' annual 'report on China's military power' has
been published. This report carries the following characteristics:
First, despite the significantly warming cross-Strait relations in
2008, China remains firm in strengthening its military power against
Taiwan at a stable pace, increasing its deployment of over 100
missiles a year. Second, this report particularly spelt out the
seven red lines, by which [China] will use force against Taiwan,
unveiling that Taiwan independence is not the only reason for the
use of force. Third, this report has again sounded the alert that
China's military power is prepared to 'go beyond the Taiwan Strait.'
What is implied in the report shows significant differences to what
[AIT Chairman] Raymond Burghardt said recently, indicating to a
worrisome extent how much the United States neglects Taiwan. ...

"Media reports quoted Burghardt as saying that the United States
does not care about the first island chain, but what is implied in
the report is just the opposite. China is the one among Washington,
Beijing and Taipei that has the most precise strategy, while the
practices of both Taiwan and the United States are both full of
ambiguities and uncertainty. If Washington continues its practice
of paying no heed to the Taiwan Strait, China will quickly gain full
control over the Taiwan Strait!"

C) "President Ma Ruins the 'Taiwan Relations Act'"

Freelance Journalist James Wang wrote in the "Weekly Commentary"
column in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation:
700,000] (3/29):

"... Ma Ying-jeou has paid no attention to the 'Taiwan Relations
Act;' he sees being pro-China as his first priority while at the
same time distancing himself from the United States. He accepts the
one-China principle and allows China to dictate and arrange
everything when it comes to [Taiwan's] foreign relations and
defense, issues that symbolize Taiwan's sovereignty. When he was
the [head of the] ruling party, he sought to block [U.S.] arms sales
[to Taiwan], and now when China firmly challenges the 'Taiwan
Relations Act' and has deployed over 1,000 missiles and used the
'Anti-Secession Law' to threaten Taiwan, he has accepted China's
terms to engage in [cross-Strait] exchanges and negotiations. What
he did is akin to abandoning U.S. protection and instead, seeking
China to be [Taiwan's] colonist.

"The possible options that Taiwan is facing are very clear, and even
very stupid people will understand easily: Looking upon the United
States as its protector, Taiwan can at least retain de facto
independence and its state of freedom and democracy. Seeing China
as its colonist, however, Taiwan will only be annexed by China under
the authoritarian Chinese Communist system as an autonomous region.


"The 'Taiwan Relations Act' empowers the Taiwan people to reject
being annexed by China by force, but it cannot stop the Taiwan
people from being annexed of their own free will. [AIT Chairman]
Raymond Burghardt's [recent] remark on 'the Taiwan people's will'
was a true statement of [U.S.] policy, and it could be regarded as a
reminder to the Taiwan people. The Taiwan people who do not want
Taiwan to become China's colony should unite together and oppose the
Ma Administration's 'joining hands with China to restrain Taiwan,'
which violates the practices of the 'Taiwan Relations Act,' and
should insist on the interests of the Taiwan people."

D) "Interactions among the Three Sides Grope Toward a New Model"

Journalist Stella Wang noted in an analysis in the pro-unification
"United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (3/30):

"Over the course of sixty years and with the United States as a
go-between, militaries on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have
finally had a chance to get together. This shows that Beijing's
current policy toward Taiwan has grown gradually stable -- namely,
'there will be more carrots than sticks', more and clear soft
[persuasion] while less hard [threat]. The Obama Administration
will not sacrifice Taiwan just to curry favor with China. As long
as Taiwan is not a troublemaker, the United States will maintain a
friendly relationship with Taiwan. ...

"As for the United States, even though the ruling Democratic Party
is traditionally pro-China, judging from AIT Chairman Raymond
Burghardt's public call for mainland China to remove its ballistic
missiles targeting Taiwan and the fact that a U.S.
military-affiliated think tank has, as in the past, invited Taiwan
to participate in the Senior Executive Course, the Obama
Administration attaches great importance to Taiwan's strategic
position in Asia. In addition, the Ma Administration since it took
office has been keen on improving cross-Strait ties, so that the
triangular relationship among Washington, Beijing and Taipei are no
longer zero-sum relations as in the Chen Shui-bian Administration.
Such developments give the United States no reason to treat Taiwan
unjustly. ...

"Given that the United States and Taiwan both elected a new
administration over the past year, the triangular relationship among
Washington, Beijing and Taipei would naturally re-position itself.
Judging from the fact that militaries on both sides of the Taiwan
Strait will get together, the three sides have tested and found a
new win-win-win model. As long as the basic situation remains
unchanged, the triangular relationship among Washington, Beijing and
Taipei will move toward a positive direction, which will be great
news for regional security in East Asia."

E) "US Report Shows Shift in Policy toward PRC"

Richard Halloran, Hawaii-based freelance writer, opined in the
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
30,000] (3/29):

"A new assessment of China's military power issued by the Pentagon
on Wednesday is notable for a subtle but distinct shift in tone,
being more firm and candid than previous appraisals. The review
stopped short of accusing the Chinese of being devious or lying but
was headed in that direction. ... The annual report has grown to 78
pages from 56 pages in 2002 and reflects the Pentagon's increased
attention to China, the improved ability of US analysts to discern
trends in China and a greater anxiety that Beijing potentially poses
a serious threat. An unnamed official who briefed the press on the
report in Washington acknowledged the greater apprehension. China's
military modernization, he said, 'is of growing concern to us.' ..."


F) "Taiwan Relations Act Needs Affirmation"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation:
20,000] editorialized (3/30):

"April 10 will mark the 30th anniversary of the passage of the
'Taiwan Relations Act' by the United States Congress in the wake of
the breaking of relations between the U.S. and Taiwan's Republic of
China government in January 1979. ... Indeed, the latest annual
report by the Pentagon report on the People's Liberation Army
military power warned that the PRC's continued military buildup may
aim to frighten the new KMT government into making even more
concessions. ... The Pentagon report was a wake-up call to both the
U.S. and Taiwan governments.

"Since taking office in January, new U.S. President Barack Obama has
rarely mentioned cross-strait relations, while Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton merely reaffirmed Washington's 'one China policy' to
her PRC counterparts in a February visit to Beijing. Since Obama is
slated to meet PRC State Chairman and CCP General Secretary Hu
Jintao in early April at the 'Group of 20' summit in London, it
would be very timely for Obama to openly reaffirm TRA to manifest
Washington's resolve to maintain stable U.S.-Taiwan relations. ...
The Pentagon report was also a timely reminder to the Ma government
to reconsider its current policy of 'leaning to one side' toward
Beijing, which has featured substantial economic and political
concessions by Taipei to Beijing but scant benefits to Taiwan
economically or diplomatically. ...

"Without domestic multipartisan support, Ma will be unable to
fulfill his dream of cross-strait normalization and any failure of
the KMT government to secure sufficient security guarantees from the
U.S. will likewise undermine its bargaining power in the face of the
PRC's expansion of military, economic and diplomatic clout.
Diplomatic lobbying by the KMT administration would be more
convincing if Ma would invite opposition voices in Taiwan to join in
a bipartisan campaign for public congressional and presidential
endorsement of the TRA and its affirmation of the importance of
Taiwan's democracy and human rights and security instead of only
trying to secure endorsements for his 'normalization' policy."


4. North Korea

"Virtual Crisis"

Columnist Antonio Chiang wrote in his column in the mass-circulation
"Apple Daily" [circulation: 520,000] (3/30):

"In 1998, Pyongyang announced it would launch a satellite, but in
fact it was test-firing a ballistic missile. This time it has
claimed it will launch a satellite again, but the United States and
Japan suspect that it is going to launch a long-range ballistic
missile. The two countries, as a result, stand in combat readiness
and are prepared to intercept [the missile]; a virtual Northeast
Asian crisis has thus taken shape. ...

"Seoul keeps a low profile [with regard to Pyongyang's launch],
Beijing focuses its attention on behind-the-scenes diplomacy, while
Russia urges Pyongyang to cancel its launch. That leaves only
Washington and Tokyo to confront North Korea. Since Japan must bear
the first brunt, it has to take a tough stance. But since [U.S.
President Barack] Obama took office, the United States' policy
toward North Korea has softened significantly. Without any actual
factor to elevate the conflicts, North Korea may just put on a
deceptive show of power. ... The financial tsunami has changed the
international order. Obama gave up the foreign policy adopted by
George W. Bush. But the wheel that squeaks gets the grease --
Pyongyang hopes the Americans will reach out to it as quickly as
possible, so it decided to stage such a virtual crisis."

YOUNG