USAU: TUNISIAN AMBASSADOR PREVIEWS KEY ISSUES FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002981

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2019
TAGS: AU PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: USAU: TUNISIAN AMBASSADOR PREVIEWS KEY ISSUES FOR
THE PEACE AND SECURITY COUNCIL AND THE UPCOMING AU SUMMIT

REF: ADDIS ABABA 02945

Classified By: AMBASSADOR MICHAEL A. BATTLE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)
.

THIS MESSAGE IS FROM USAU AMBASSADOR MICHAEL A. BATTLE.


1. (C) In a December 22 meeting with USAU Ambassador Michael
Battle, incoming African Union Peace and Security Council
(PSC) Chair, Tunisian Ambassador Hatem Atallah, discussed the
key issues that he anticipated would dominate his
chairmanship and the upcoming Heads of State Summit in
January. Besides the widely-rumored attempt by current
African Union (AU) President Moamar Qadhafi to secure an
unprecedented second term, Atallah opined that Guinea,
Madagascar, and Sudan will be hot-button issues.

The African Union Chairmanship
--------------


2. (C) Atallah confirmed the rumors of Qadhafi's desire to
secure a second term at the head of the AU (REFTEL),but
claims there has been no formal demand by the Libyans. He
explained that this issue could only be resolved in the
closed session of the heads of state meeting following the
opening ceremony on the first day. Atallah suggested that
there is no indication of weakened resolve on the part of
Malawi to seek the presidency. Per unwritten AU rules, it is
Southern Africa's turn at the helm, and the Southern African
Development Community (SADC) went through an internal process
to select and nominate Malawi (over runner-up Botswana).
Malawi announced its candidacy in writing at the July 2009
Heads of State Summit in Sirte, Libya. Since then, Malawi
has used every appropriate venue to reaffirm its candidacy,
engaging in a campaign to solicit support from as many member
nations as possible, Tunisia included. As recently as last
week Malawi confirmed its candidacy via diplomatic note to
the AU.


3. (C) Atallah said next year's presidency is more about SADC
than it is about Malawi. If Malawi were to withdraw its
candidacy at the last minute, Atallah opined that SADC would
produce an alternate candidate, probably Botswana. Atallah
confirmed that the USG position is shared by the European
Union in that it does not want to interfere, but hopes that
the AU will abide by its own processes and respect the
tradition of alternation.

Guinea
--------------


4. (C) Guinea and Madagascar are both similar and different,
ruminated Atallah. Both experienced unconstitutional change;
however, the prospects in Guinea are more "bloody." Atallah
claimed to have unconfirmed reports that junta leader Dadis
Camara is "finished" as a political factor in Guinea.
Everybody is waiting to see how the new leader (presumably a
reference to CNDD Interim President Sekouba Konate) will
proceed; even Compaore's mediation efforts have been
suspended pending reorganization of the junta. Regardless,
the next summit of heads of state will determine the AU's
course vis-a-vis Guinea.

Madagascar
--------------


5. (C) Madagascar, Atallah said, is more about political
jockeying. Unlike in Guinea, there is an agreement in place
and an established roadmap. The January 6 meeting of the
International Contact Group on Guinea could potentially be
even more crucial than the AU Summit, said Atallah, and will
send a strong signal to transition leader Rajoelina.

Sudan
--------------


6. (C) Atallah reported that during the PSC's November visit
to Sudan, government officials stated that their priority is
for a unified Sudan. However, the government would accept

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the people's will so long as consultations are transparent,
fair, and honest. Similarly, Government of Southern Sudan
interlocutors claimed to prefer a unified Sudan; however, the
Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) blamed the National
Congress Party (NCP) for making unity unattractive. If the
Southerners were to choose today, they would choose
separation, said Atallah. Atallah added that the GoSS
requested that PSC members ensure that the AU and member
nations accept the will of the Sudanese people, whatever the
outcome.


7. (C) Atallah acknowledged that progress had been made in
three critical areas since the PSC's November visit
(presumably a reference to the referenda on Southern Sudan
and Abyei, as well as the Popular Consultations Bills).
Atallah's sense, however, was that the window of opportunity
to save a unified Sudan remains small and fleeting. He also
cautioned that secession would not be a panacea, as north and
south would remain inextricably tied economically, and that
internal tensions would transcend the referendum on secession
and continue to threaten stability.

Comment
--------------


8. (U) While Atallah failed to mention Somalia in his
discourse, it too will undoubtedly take center stage in
January as the mandate for the African Union Mission for
Somalia (AMISOM) is up for renewal.

Biographic Note
--------------


9. (U) Atallah served as Tunisia's Ambassador to the United
States where he claims to have participated in negotiations
on the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). He also
served as ambassador to South Africa, Mozambique, Zambia,
Namibia, Angola, and Zimbabwe.
MUSHINGI