USAU: AFRICAN UNION LEADERSHIP AT STAKE DURING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002945

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/S, AF/E, AF/W, AF/C, AF/RSA, AND NEA/MAG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2019
TAGS: PREL PINR AU
SUBJECT: USAU: AFRICAN UNION LEADERSHIP AT STAKE DURING
UPCOMING SUMMIT

Classified By: USAU AMBASSADOR MICHAEL A. BATTLE, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (
D).

THIS MESSAGE IS FROM USAU AMBASSADOR MICHAEL A. BATTLE.


1. (U) This message contains an Action Request in para 8.


2. (C) Summary: With the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis
Ababa less than six weeks away, speculation about which
African head of state will be elected Chairperson of the AU
Assembly for 2010 is in full gear. For the AU Commission
leadership (executive secretariat equivalent),the outcome is
not in doubt: it's southern Africa's turn and the region's
candidate, Malawi, is ready to serve. Those who speculate
that Libyan Leader Moammar Qadhafi may attempt to win
re-election to a second term are ignoring African Union rules
regarding rotation. While the outcome may not be known until
the Summit itself, the U.S. and other international partners
of the AU have an opportunity to influence the result. End
Summary.


3. (C) The upcoming AU Summit of African heads of state
(January 31 to February 2) will have to grapple with
resolving conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, Guinea, and
Madagascar, and there will be lively discussions about
Africa's integration, climate change, the global financial
crisis, and the formal theme of the Summit, namely
International Communication Technologies. All these issues
could well be overshadowed by a leadership dispute involving
incumbent AU Assembly Chairperson Qadhafi, who is purported
to be seeking re-election to a second term.

Don't discount Libya's ability to buy Qadhafi's re-election
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Within the past week, USAU has had a number of
conversations regarding Malawi's candidacy. On December 10
at a dinner at the Serbian Ambassador's residence, USAU
Ambassador spoke at length with Ambassador Guillaume Nseke,
Francophonie's Permanent Representative to the AU, about the
future of the AU. Nseke stated with great confidence that if
Libya wanted to lead the AU for an additional year, he was
sure that AU member states would consent. He asserted that
Libya has been spreading money around to ensure that there
would be no serious opposition to Libya's continued
leadership. His assertions were based on his perception of
the weakness of African leaders to resist the persuasion of
Libya. He also asserted that the likely scenario is that
during the AU Summit, Malawi would declare itself unable to
fulfill the mandate of leadership. This would create the
power vacuum for Libya to assert itself as the logical option
to ensure continuity of leadership. This, in Nseke's
opinion, would provide the needed cover for the African heads
of state to allow Libya to continue, as many of them prefer
anyway.

Assurances from Malawi's PermRep
--------------


5. (C) On December 11, USAU Ambassador spoke with Ambassador
Kalilangwe, Malawi's Permanent Representation at the AU, and
shared with him that the USG and other AU partner nations are
looking to Malawi to honor its commitment to lead the AU.
Kalilangwe gave assurances that his government would stand by
the commitment of the Southern Africa Development Commission
(SADC) and that Malawi looked forward to chairing the AU.

Malawi has not clinched it yet
--------------


6. (C) On December 12, at a dinner at the home of Liberian
PermRep Edward Howard-Clinton, the Ambassador shared with the
Liberian host and the AU Deputy Chairperson Erastus Mwencha
the two perceptions gleaned from conversations with Nseke and
Kalilangwe. Mwencha, who is friends with the President of
Malawi, stated that he was confident that Malawi would indeed
hold fast and assert its right to lead the AU. Ambassador
Howard-Clinton stated his hopes that Malawi would follow
through. USAU Ambassador asked Howard-Clinton if he was
certain how Liberian President Sirleaf-Johnson would vote.
He stated that he was unsure because his president has a
close relationship with the Libyan leader. When Kalilangwe
later joined the dinner, he stated in the presence of
Mwencha, Howard-Clinton, and the USAU Ambassador that his
government would indeed follow through with its claim and
right to assume the leadership of the AU.

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Rules of rotation will be respected
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7. (C) On December 15, at the meeting of the AU Partners
Group Working Group on Peace and Security and in the presence
of about 15 partner nations, USAU Ambassador shared with
Lamamra the two perceptions about the outcome of leadership
of the AU. As noted above, Lamamra responded unequivocally,
and with passion, that the chairmanship "will go to Malawi as
expected," and the AU's "principle of rotation will be
respected." He also stated that if Malawi were to indicate
that it could not take the leadership, it would be Central
Africa's turn and leadership would not revert to North
Africa. He acknowledged that it will be up to the heads of
state to decide.


8. (C) ACTION REQUEST: Given some lingering doubts and
outright concern in still other quarters about what a second
year under Qadhafi would yield, USAU urges the Department to
consider taking the following steps: First, request AF and
appropriate NEA posts to approach their host country
leadership regarding the USG desire that the AU respect the
leadership rotation rules. Second, have a senior USG
official call the President of Liberia with the same message
as above. Third, ascertain at the highest appropriate level
Qadhafi's intent regarding his inclination to seek
re-election to a second term. USAU will continue to report
on this issue in the run-up to the Summit.
MUSHINGI