PM MELES URGES ACTION ON SUDAN, NON-COMMITTAL ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002935

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2019
TAGS: PREL MASS PTER YE SO SU ET
SUBJECT: PM MELES URGES ACTION ON SUDAN, NON-COMMITTAL ON
LEAHY VETTING CONCERNS

REF: ADDIS ABABA 2817

Classified By: CDA Tulinabo Mushingi for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Prime Minister Meles told visiting DASD Ambassador
Huddleston that there is a "complete coincidence of vital
security interests" between the U.S. and Ethiopia. He agreed
to discuss the issue of Leahy vetting with military
commanders, but did not agree to any specific action. Meles
described Sudan as Ethiopia's greatest security concern,
stressed that an implosion in Sudan will have repercussions
across the continent, and urged aggressive U.S. action to
ensure a peaceful separation of the south from the north.
Meles raised Yemen as a major security concern, and offered
to cooperate with the U.S. to ensure stability there. On
Somalia, Meles said the Islamist movement has been weakened
by divisions that will not likely be repaired, but cautioned
that it is now serving as a front for foreign actors. Meles
said he is encouraging the Somali government to form an
alliance with an increasingly strong "grass-roots" Sufi
movement, and attempting to reassure that movement that it
can trust President Sharif. End summary.


2. (SBU) Visiting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for
Africa Ambassador Vicki Huddleston and CDA Tulinabo Mushingi
met with Prime Minister Meles Zenawi on December 10 for 90
minutes. Meles was joined by Special Assistant Gebretensae
Gebremichael. The U.S. was also represented by Brigadier
Gen. Wallace Farris of the Joint Staff, U.S. Defense Attache
Col. Bradley Anderson, Col. Saul Bracero, and PolOff.

Security Relationship Vital, Non-Committal on Leahy Vetting
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3. (C) Prime Minister Meles told Amb. Huddleston that there
is a "complete coincidence of vital security interests"
between the U.S. and Ethiopia, and the Government of Ethiopia
(GoE) will continue to work cooperatively with the U.S. to
address these mutual interests. Meles described Ethiopia's
long history of dealing with insecurity exported from the
middle east, from the fall of the Axumite Empire during the
Islamic revivalist movement to the current "nightmare of
jihad," and said Ethiopia cannot withstand this tide of
fundamentalism and extremism without international support,
and U.S. support in particular. Meles reiterated several
times that "at every step, we want to contribute our fair
share, and not ask for assistance when we can do things on
our own."


4. (C) Emphasizing the importance of the U.S.-Ethiopia
security relationship, Amb. Huddleston expressed concern that
disagreement over Leahy vetting requirements would impede the
increased levels of cooperation proposed during the November
5 bilateral talks. She explained that U.S.-provided military
equipment valued at some USD 30 million was backlogged as a
result of the Ethiopian National Defense Force's (ENDF)
refusal to provide sufficient information to complete Leahy
Vetting. Amb. Huddleston conceded that the USG had changed
its position on Leahy Vetting requirements, but emphasized
that the GoE's position had changed as well, referencing the
ENDF engineering battalion intended to receive much of the
backlogged equipment, which to date has not been established.



5. (C) Meles emphasized that the ENDF would continue to
cooperate with the U.S. military because of its underlying
strategic priorities, and "not receiving assistance will not
affect in any way our cooperative strategic and intelligence
relationship." Naturally, the ENDF wants foreign assistance
to fill gaps in its capabilities, but in the past when the
ENDF has not been able to procure equipment from the U.S., it
has been able to procure it elsewhere. Meles explained that
while the ENDF would "dearly love" the equipment currently in
Djibouti, his commanders were "puzzled" by U.S. procedures,
and perhaps both sides were too entrenched in their
positions. He further stated that the ENDF needed to
"understand how the American system works," and agreed to
further discuss the issue with his commanders to find a way

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forward. Meles said, "We will seek to find a resolution."

GoE Fears Sudan Implosion, Urges Aggressive U.S. Action
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Meles explained that Ethiopia feared an implosion in
Sudan, and said the destabilizing effect this would have
"from Djibouti to Dakar" was Ethiopia's greatest security
concern. The chance for a united Sudan has expired, and all
concerned parties must now focus on achieving an "organized
divorce" of the south from the north. Without strong
leadership in the south, it would be extremely difficult to
pull this off. Meles reiterated that if southerners vote in
a referendum, "there is no doubt in my mind they will vote
for secession." The north may exploit the vacuum of
leadership in the south to pit various groups against each
other in an effort to destabilize the region. However,
elements in the south are aware of this, and will attempt to
destabilize the north in a similar manner. Meles emphasized
that a north-south conflict, combined with intra-regional
conflicts in both the north and south, is entirely possible,
and in such an event the possibility of a complete implosion
with impact across Africa is very real.


7. (C) Meles described Special Envoy Gen. Gration's work as
"the light at the end of the tunnel," and stressed that "we
must act before 2011." He stated that the south must be
willing to make concessions on oil and other issues, and the
north must be made to realize that it cannot hold onto the
south by force. The U.S. must be actively and aggressively
involved, but "it can pull this off, as it pulled off the
CPA." He reiterated that Khartoum badly wants to normalize
relations with the U.S., and the U.S. holds the trump card
and can use it to leverage a north-south peace. Meles stated
that the AU strategy has the highest chance of success, and
urged the U.S. to support it. He emphasized the need to move
beyond exploratory talks, noting that AU panel members hold
Gen. Gration in high esteem and are prepared to work with
him.

Conflict in Yemen a Major Concern
--------------


8. (C) Meles raised Yemen, describing it as a key part of
Ethiopia's security environment and adding that insecurity
there affects the country more than conflict in many African
countries. He described conflict in Yemen as a "major
concern" for Ethiopia, referencing both the northern Huthi
conflict and insecurity in the south. Meles urged the U.S.
to pay close attention to Yemen and the impact it has on
Africa, and offered that Ethiopia would work with the U.S.
"and contribute every resource we can" to ensure stability
there. (Note: In the past month, GoE officials have raised
Yemen with USG interlocutors with increasing frequency. End
note.)

Somali Islamists Divided, but TFG Lacks Resources, Allies
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Describing Somalia as "a challenge we live with,"
Meles assessed that divisions between al-Shabaab and
Hizb-al-Islam "are very unlikely to be patched up," and this
would weaken the Islamist movement in Somalia. He attributed
this fracture to clan politics, ideological differences, and
conflict over resources.


10. (C) Discussing al Sunnah wal Jama'a (ASWJ),Meles pointed
out that anti-Islamist sentiment among Sufi Muslims had
surged as a result of the desecration of Sufi holy cites by
extremist groups, and described the "grass-roots level
rebellion" of "tolerant, traditional" Sufis against "an
invading ideology" as a very positive development.


11. (C) Meles stated that al-Shabaab is increasingly serving
as a front for foreign actors. As its leaders have been
weakened, almost every clan has provided cover for
international jihadists. Meles lamented that the
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was not prepared to
combat the Islamist front, and had not sufficiently partnered
with the Sufi movement. While some Sufis suspect that TFG
President Sheikh Sharif is a Wahhabi, Meles believes "he

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stands for peace," and has attempted to convince Sufi leaders
that they can trust Sharif. Meles is encouraging the TFG to
develop a strong alliance with ASWJ, and believes that if
they do, the Islamist movement will become further
marginalized. He noted that change will not come quickly,
and "the Islamists are more serious than we previously
thought." Meles praised the U.S. for its financial support
of the TFG, but added that an overall lack of resources was
limiting it. When the GoE offered to provide training to TFG
forces, it was told the TFG did not have resources to send
forces to Ethiopia - a response Meles found "odd." He
reported Sharif is seeking financial support from Saudi
Arabia, and he believed Sharif would be successful in this
effort "as a result of his previous experience."


12. (U) This message has been cleared by Ambassador
Huddleston.
MUSHINGI