Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ADDISABABA2877
2009-12-09 04:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

ETHIOPIA: OPPOSITION WEIGHS ENGAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM PREL ET 
pdf how-to read a cable
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ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 090439Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7068
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEPADJ/CJTF HOA
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002877 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PREL ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: OPPOSITION WEIGHS ENGAGEMENT STRATEGIES

REF: A. ADDIS 2624

B. ADDIS 2817

Classified By: CDA Tuli Mushingi for Reasons 1.4 b and d.

Summary
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002877

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PREL ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: OPPOSITION WEIGHS ENGAGEMENT STRATEGIES

REF: A. ADDIS 2624

B. ADDIS 2817

Classified By: CDA Tuli Mushingi for Reasons 1.4 b and d.

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Visiting DAS Wycoff discussed in separate November 19
meetings with prominent Ethiopian opposition leaders their
strategies for engagement in the 2010 national elections.
Bulcha Demeksa of the "Forum" opposition coalition expressed
deep resentment towards the ruling EPRDF for what he called
years of harassment and intimidation. He conveyed
willingness to engage with the ruling party but only on a
bilateral basis, which the EPRDF has refused. Hailu Shawel,
Chairman of opposition All Ethiopia Unity Party (AEUP),
considered engagement with the ruling party necessary to
furthering democracy, and felt it could lead to a "win-win
situation." Wycoff stressed that the U.S. is committed to
working with all partners to promote a free and fair election
process and to promoting good governance and democratization
in Ethiopia. End Summary.



2. (SBU) Deputy Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Karl
Wycoff -- accompanied by Charge d'Affaires Roger Meece,
Deputy Pol/Econ Counselor, and Poloff -- held separate
meetings November 19 with Bulcha Demeksa, Chairman of
opposition Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement and Vice
Chairman of the Forum for Democratic Dialogue (Forum) Foreign
Relations Committee, and with Hailu Shawel, Chairman of
opposition All Ethiopia Unity Party (AEUP) and Deputy
Chairman Yaicob Likke.


Forum Not In A Hurry To Engage, But Wants U.S. To
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Bulcha said the Forum is eager to engage with the
ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front
(EPRDF),and is waiting for the EPRDF to call for bilateral
discussions. (Note: The Forum has requested bilateral talks,
but the EPRDF continues to insist that the Forum join
multiparty talks. End Note.) Bulcha further noted that the
Forum is encouraging supporters to participate in the
election and that "only the most damaging circumstances will
prevent participation." He did not identify those
potentially disqualifying circumstances. Wycoff reiterated

U.S. commitment to work with all parties to create an
electoral environment conducive to a free and fair vote,
including advocating with the ruling party and the government
that they must create an environment that is conducive to
participation by all opposition parties.



4. (C) Regarding the Forum's refusal to engage in recent Code
of Conduct (CoC) talks (reftel),Bulcha said the CoC is not a
controversial document and the Forum does not have a problem
with it. Rather, the Forum walked out of the CoC talks
because the EPRDF refused to participate in bilateral talks
to discuss the Forum's allegations of a narrowing of
political space, harassment of supporters and candidates, and
a host of other issues. The Forum refused to engage in
multiparty talks because it feels that the opposition parties
who would be present at multiparty talks are aligned with the
ruling party, and therefore the Forum would be outnumbered.
(Note: AEUP's Hailu Shawel later said that almost all of the
issues that the Forum insisted on raising bilaterally were
discussed at the multilateral CoC talks. End Note.)



5. (C) Bulcha expressed hope that the U.S. would insist that
the GoE apply democratic principles and create a fair playing
field for the upcoming elections. He felt that the U.S. had
not "put down its foot" to encourage the GoE to respect human
rights, despite the huge amounts of humanitarian assistance
that the U.S. provides. He called the current government an
absolute dictatorship, and insisted that the GoE lies to U.S.
interlocutors about its commitment to democracy.



AEUP Sees Engagement As Opportunity

ADDIS ABAB 00002877 002 OF 002


--------------


6. (C) Hailu Shawel, Chairman of the AEUP (one of the four
parties that negotiated the CoC),welcomed the EPRDF's
willingness to engage opposition parties in the electoral
process. However, on the CoC, Hailu said "until the papers
are tested, we don't know if what we signed is worth
anything." Hailu insisted that the only way to build a
democracy is to engage with all political parties, and that
through discussion a "win-win situation" will arise.
(Comment: Since Hailu Shawel shook Prime Minister Meles' hand
last month (reftel) following the signing of the CoC
preamble, he has lost popularity among his supporters who
feel that he sold out to the ruling party. End Comment.)



7. (C) Hailu described some of the major policy differences
between the AEUP and the EPRDF, with AUEP favoring private
land ownership and the abolition of ethnic federalism. Hailu
said his party opted not to join the Forum because AEUP does
not endorse ethnic-based parties. He feels that the Forum
will disintegrate soon after the elections because its
component parties are fundamentally different. AEUP
Vice-Chair Yaicob Liike added that he feels the Forum is
disjointed and unable to speak with one voice.



8. (C) Asked why AEUP chose to engage with the EPRDF at this
time despite a turbulent past between the parties, Yaicob
said that after 18 years of single-party rule, the ruling
party realizes it needs to be more inclusive or its downfall
is imminent. According to Yaicob, the EPRDF has taken some
steps to help foster an electoral environment conducive to a
free and fair vote. As an example of such a step, Yaicob
cited the detention last month of an AEUP executive council
member in the SNNP region. Yaicob said Hailu raised the
issue with Minister of Communication BEREKET Simon and within
an hour the AEUP official was released.



9. (C) Asked whether they shared concerns of other opposition
parties that the ruling party would use opposition engagement
in the electoral process as a way to glibly legitimize the
elections, Hailu replied that engagement is the only option
for establishing a democracy. Hailu expressed hope that the
Forum would also engage, as he thought that would strengthen
the process. Closing with a plea for as many international
election observers as possible, Yaicob pointed out that there
will be 43,000 polling centers for the 2010 elections.
Throughout the conversations, we stressed that the U.S. is
committed to working with all partners to promote a free and
fair election process and to promoting good governance and
democratization in Ethiopia.


COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) Bulcha and Hailu's contrasting viewpoints towards
engagement in the electoral process highlight the differing
mindsets of Ethiopian opposition parties: one camp harbors
great resentment towards the ruling party and is hesitant to
engage in the electoral process for fear of being used to
legitimize unfair elections; the other camp deems that
engagement with the ruling party is the only option to
furthering democracy. Although the Forum has legitimate
grievances, including five years of harassment, intimidation,
and imprisonment of supporters, its disengagement in the
electoral process leaves it with little opportunity to take
advantage of the small amount of available political space.
On the other hand, parties that chose to engage with the
ruling party, such as AEUP, are widely considered by their
constituencies to be "sell outs" and have lost support. With
six months remaining before the elections, neither opposition
camp seems poised to seriously contest this election. End
Comment.



11. (SBU) DAS Wycoff cleared this message.
MUSHINGI