Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ADDISABABA258
2009-02-02 14:30:00
SECRET
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

ACTING A/S CARTER RAISES THE ISSUE OF POLITICAL

Tags:  PREL PGOV KDEM ECON ET 
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RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000258 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM ECON ET
SUBJECT: ACTING A/S CARTER RAISES THE ISSUE OF POLITICAL
SPACE

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
-------

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000258

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM ECON ET
SUBJECT: ACTING A/S CARTER RAISES THE ISSUE OF POLITICAL
SPACE

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S) In a January 30 lunch with ruling party officials,
Acting Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Phil Carter
dramatically expanded U.S.-Ethiopian bilateral dialogue in
highlighting clearly the United States' view that Ethiopia's
political space has been shrinking since 2005 and pressing
for an immediate reversal to return Ethiopia to its pre-2005
path toward democratic openings. Clearly wedded to an
ideology of progress dominated by the state, Communications
and National Security Advisors to the Prime Minister, Bereket
Simon and Abay Tsehaye respectively, detailed the ruling
Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front's (EPRDF)
perception of the current state of Ethiopia's economic and
political climate and the party's view of the ten year
trajectory for each. Carter emphasized that the United
States continues to value the bilateral relationship, but
made clear that the current political atmosphere of
intolerance of dissent and intimidation of the opposition is
a stumbling block to constructive bilateral engagement to
support our common objectives of promoting Ethiopia's
development and stability.


2. (SBU) Immediately following a discussion on internal
dynamics with leaders of political opposition groups (septel)
Acting AF A/S Phil Carter discussed domestic dynamics with
ruling party officials. EPRDF representatives included
Communications Advisor to the Prime Minister Bereket Simon,
National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister Abay Tsehaye
Basin Affairs Advisor to the Prime Minister Shiferaw Jarso,
EPRDF Head of Office Muktar Kedir, and EPRDF Foreign Affairs
Head Sekuture Getachew. Ambassador Yamamoto, DCM Deborah
Malac, and Political Officers Michael Gonzales, Dante
Paradiso, and Ted Harkema attended. End Summary.

THE EPRDF'S VIEW OF ETHIOPIA
--------------


3. (C) Acting A/S Carter opened the discussion inquiring as
to how the ruling party views Ethiopia today and where it
seeks to lead the country over the medium term. Bereket
opened by noting the EPRDF's desire to make Ethiopia a

middle-income country within the next twenty years. He
argued that Ethiopia has been doing well for the past five
years -- growing by over 11 percent annually -- and that this
trajectory, driven by rural development-based growth, can be
sustained. Strong rural growth has been paired with
"strategies that work" in building capacity, supporting small
and medium-sized enterprises, and the youth in urban centers
to promote a market economy. While progress in the education
and health care sectors are thriving, Bereket acknowledged
slower progress in democracy and governance. While a very
good constitution and an effective ethnic federalist system
put Ethiopia on "the right track," he argued that progress
toward multi-party democracy remained on-going. Bereket
argued that while the 2005 election was very competitive, the
opposition refused to accept the results and attempted to
topple the government by force. In the face of this, the
Ethiopian Government (GoE) has tried to build institutions
and improve parliamentary process. Bereket argued that while
Ethiopia is not perfect on human rights, it is on the right
track broadly with strong rights enshrined in the
constitution, but events require the GoE to "intervene."
Bereket asserted that the opposition remains wedded to a
violent approach to topple the GoE through
extra-constitutional means and stressed that everyone in
Ethiopia must accept the constitution and rule of law by
acting appropriately. Since 2005, the GoE has actively
created political space for those groups acting lawfully, but
did not allow political space for those acting
undemocratically or unlawfully.


4. (C) Abay Tsehaye argued that the EPRDF sees development
and democracy as the only option for Ethiopia and that the
EPRDF's approach as a "developmental government" is to
rectify the challenges of weak institutions and pervasive
market failures. Abay argued that an import-substitution
approach to development didn't work in Latin America and
cannot be an option for Ethiopia. Because of market
failures, particularly in the areas of telecommunications,
financial services, agricultural technology, and

ADDIS ABAB 00000258 002 OF 003


infrastructure, the GoE must fill the void until Ethiopia's
"pre-capitalist" economy matures to become conducive for a
more active private sector role. Focused on the GoE budget
rather than broader economic flows, Abay rejected the
suggestion that Ethiopia's economic growth is heavily
dependent on foreign transfers.

LAYING DOWN THE LINE ON POLITICAL SPACE
--------------


5. (C) Seeking to allay EPRDF anxiety over the new
Administration's views, Carter emphasized early that the USG
values the U.S.-Ethiopia bilateral relationship and
Ethiopia's leadership role in the region. Carter confirmed
that our general objectives of supporting development,
democratization, security, and stability in Ethiopia and the
regional remain unchanged. He clarified, though, that our
bilateral relations are not defined by security, but also
economic and political development and the USG view of
"security" includes more than just security forces but also
an environment that is not conducive to extremism, allows the
population to seize opportunities, and in which the
government is responsive to the needs of the people.


6. (S) Immediately employing the referenced change in
emphasis in dialogue, Carter pressed the assembled ruling
party officials to begin direct dialogue with the opposition.
Assessing that Ethiopia stands at a juncture between growing
authoritarianism and constructively addressing real issues
facing the country, Carter argued that the USG is not sure
that Ethiopia can survive another sustained crisis like that
following the 2005 national elections. As such, Carter
clearly advised the EPRDF officials that the USG views
Ethiopia's political space as shrinking. Specifically, he
argued that inter-party dialogue with the opposition must
happen now. On the recently passed Charities and Societies
Proclamation (CSO Law),Carter noted that the USG was not
pleased with the law as it may affect our ability to support
development activities in Ethiopia and because, despite
hearing clear and unified opposition to the bill from donors
and development partners the GoE failed to make changes for a
more conducive law. Carter emphasized that the GoE's
approach of managing how it implements a very restrictive law
is inferior to an approach of reviewing its implications in
the design phase to produce a better piece of legislation.
"If you follow the provisions of the CSO law, or implement it
in an ad hoc manner," Carter said, "we'll have problems."


7. (S) Carter also stressed that the detention and December
29 pardon revocation of opposition leader Birtukan Midekssa
is a "growing obstacle" that if not handled quickly,
transparently, and resulting in her release would be a major
problem. Carter emphasized that Birtukan's case is a symbol
of our concerns about the broader Ethiopian political
climate, which must be addressed. Rather than striving to
engage with all stakeholders to productively prevent emerging
problems, Ethiopia appears to the USG and the international
community to be engaged in systematically imposing
restrictions to control all that it doesn't like.

THE EPRDF'S REACTION
--------------


8. (C) While clearly surprised by such frank engagement by a
Washington principal on Ethiopia's domestic affairs, Bereket
took liberties in reviewing the historical record to defend
GoE actions since 2005. Emphatic that the EPRDF had, in
fact, opened Ethiopia's political space, Bereket reported
that the GoE had accepted all opposition nominees to fill the
National Electoral Board (NEB) in 2007, of whom the Prime
Minister had approved three, with that the opposition
supporting the remaining six. Bereket argued that despite
the creation of "opposition day" in parliament each month the
opposition has not taken up the opportunity to raise
questions of GoE officials. Bereket argued that despite the
April 2008 local elections being well administered, the
opposition pulled out. Lamenting how the international
community does not consider the GoE's positive steps, Bereket
argued that the EPRDF actively negotiated with the opposition
in developing the rules of parliamentary procedure, electoral
law, political parties registration law, and press law.


9. (C) Bereket stated that the EPRDF will engage with the
opposition, but only under the auspices of the NEB and only

ADDIS ABAB 00000258 003 OF 003


if the opposition accepts and agrees to operate under the
constitution. Abay argued that Birtukan's actions and
aggressive statements sought to set a precedent for other
opposition members to challenge the government and promote
extra-constitutional violence, so the GoE had to respond to
exert control to prevent a repeat of the 2005 political
violence.

A CLOSING MESSAGE
--------------


10. (S) Carter concluded the lunch by emphasizing that the
detention of Birtukan "won't go away and needs to be
resolved." He stressed that Ethiopia's political climate is
a problem. Carter also emphasized that the record this very
week of opposition supporters being detained and interrogated
after meeting with Embassy officers in the field is not
reflective of a conducive democratic environment. He urged
the GoE to invite Human Rights Watch to Ethiopia to engage in
dialogue and conduct a credible assessment. Carter
encouraged the EPRDF not to view the discussion as negative
criticism, but made clear that Ethiopia has an image problem.
He urged those across the table to resolve the problems of
the CSO law, the press law, Birtukan's detention, and to
engage in dialogue with the opposition so that we can focus
our bilateral engagement on the meaty issues of interest to
promote Ethiopian development, stability, and democratization.
YAMAMOTO