Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ADDISABABA2402
2009-10-05 13:14:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

ETHIOPIA FY 2010 DISASTER REDECLARATION

Tags:  EAID PHUM PREL PREF SO 
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 PDI-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 UTED-00 VCI-00 FDRE-01 
 OBO-00 H-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 MOFM-00 
 MOF-00 CDC-00 VCIE-00 DCP-00 NSAE-00 OES-00 OIC-00 
 OMB-00 NIMA-00 EPAU-00 PA-00 MCC-00 GIWI-00 SGAC-00 
 SP-00 IRM-00 EVR-00 FMP-00 CBP-00 EPAE-00 SCRS-00 
 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-00 CARC-00 SAS-00 DTT-00 FA-00 
 SWCI-00 PESU-00 /002W

O 051314Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6414
INFO AMEMBASSY ASMARA 
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
USEU BRUSSELS
USMISSION GENEVA 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
DIA WASHDC
CJTF HOA
CDC ATLANTA GA
NSC WASHDC
UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 002402 


STATE DEPARTMENT AF/E, AF/PDPA, OES, AND PRM/AFR
USAID for AFR EGAST, CTHOMPSON
DCHA/AA SCROMER
DCHA/OFDA CCHAN, ACONVERY, JFLEMMING, PMORRIS,
KCHANNELL, CCHRISTIE
DCHA/FFP JDWORKEN, PMOHAN
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN, RTILSWORTH, AND LPANASUK
NAIROBI FOR OFDA/ECARO GPLATT, JKIMBROUGH, RFFPO
NCOX
USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG
NEW YORK FOR DMERCADO
USEU FOR PBROWN
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH, RMA
NSC FOR CPRATT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF SO
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA FY 2010 DISASTER REDECLARATION

-------
SUMMARY
-------

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 002402


STATE DEPARTMENT AF/E, AF/PDPA, OES, AND PRM/AFR
USAID for AFR EGAST, CTHOMPSON
DCHA/AA SCROMER
DCHA/OFDA CCHAN, ACONVERY, JFLEMMING, PMORRIS,
KCHANNELL, CCHRISTIE
DCHA/FFP JDWORKEN, PMOHAN
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN, RTILSWORTH, AND LPANASUK
NAIROBI FOR OFDA/ECARO GPLATT, JKIMBROUGH, RFFPO
NCOX
USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG
NEW YORK FOR DMERCADO
USEU FOR PBROWN
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH, RMA
NSC FOR CPRATT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF SO
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA FY 2010 DISASTER REDECLARATION

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. In July 2009, the Government of the Federal
Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (GFDRE) increased
the projected number of people requiring emergency
food assistance between June and December 2009 to
6.2 million people, from previous January to June
2009 estimates of 4.2 million people. In addition,
an estimated 7.5 million chronically food-insecure
beneficiaries currently receive assistance from the
GFDRE-managed Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP).


2. Populations in many areas of the country
confront significant humanitarian challenges,
including conflict, malnutrition, delayed food
deliveries, potential flooding and disease
outbreaks, such as acute watery diarrhea (AWD). In
addition, the USAID-supported Famine Early Warning
Systems Network (FEWS NET) anticipates that the
delayed onset and poor performance of the June to
September meher rains, combined with the widespread
failure of the previous four rains, will result in a
below-normal October to January meher harvest in
crop-producing areas of Ethiopia, contributing to a
further deterioration in food insecurity and
increased malnutrition. Charge d'Affaires (CDA)
therefore re-declares a disaster in response to the
complex emergency in Ethiopia and requests the
continued provision of disaster assistance in fiscal
year (FY) 2010. End summary.

--------------
BACKGROUND
--------------


3. Consecutive seasons of failed rains, combined
with a rapidly growing population, increased
inflation, endemic poverty, and limited government
capacity, have led to chronic food insecurity and
water shortages in large areas of Ethiopia,
including Somali Region and parts of Oromiya, Afar,
Tigray, Amhara, and Southern Nations, Nationalities,
and Peoples (SNNP) regions. Land degradation, small
and decreasing farmer landholdings, lack of access

to off-farm labor, poor access to health services,
potable water, and markets also continue to
undermine food security and vulnerable populations'
ability to resist cyclical shocks. Low immunization
coverage and limited access to health services
coupled with poor nutrition pose risks for
contagious disease epidemics, including malaria,
measles, cholera, meningitis, and HIV/AIDS. In
addition, flooding, drought, volcanic activity, and
locust and army worm infestations represent cyclical
events and ongoing risks to populations in Ethiopia.

--------------
CURRENT SITUATION
--------------


4. According to GFDRE estimates, 6.2 million
individuals currently require emergency food
assistance countrywide, in addition to 7.5 million
people chronically food-insecure PSNP beneficiaries.
The collective impact of drought conditions, poor
rain performance, widespread AWD outbreaks,
significant population displacement, and increasing
malnutrition rates continue to contribute to
deteriorating humanitarian conditions.

--- Food Security and Agriculture ---


5. Poor performance of the 2009 February to May
belg rains has resulted in water shortages,
decreased pasture availability, and significantly
reduced belg crop performance in southern and
northeastern Ethiopia. In addition, FEWS NET has
reported the delayed onset and early cessation of
the June to October meher rains in some areas,
increasing the likelihood of a significantly reduced
meher harvest, the source of more than 90 percent of
Ethiopia's annual crop production.


6. Similar rainfall patterns in 2002 led to a 21
percent reduction in total harvest yields from the
previous five-year average and increased rates of
severe acute malnutrition (SAM). The poor
performance of the 2009 summer (kiremt) rains
exceeds 2002 conditions, affecting drought-prone
areas as well as areas that normally receive
sufficient rain, including crop surplus-producing
parts of Ethiopia. Areas affected include Tigray,
Amhara, Oromiya, SNNP, Afar Regions, and Somali
regions.


7. The anticipated below-normal main October to
January meher harvest is expected to result in the
early onset of the traditional June to September
hunger season and an increase in staple food prices
in early 2010, exacerbating existing inflationary
pressures on poor households and contributing to
increased food insecurity.


8. Due to the effects of intensifying food
insecurity and drought conditions in neighboring
countries, the U.N. Office for Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports increased
pastoralists and livestock movement from Kenya and
Somalia to Ethiopia seeking access to water and
grazing land and straining limited resources in
pastoral areas of Ethiopia. The U.N. Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that more
than 200,000 livestock have moved across the border
into Oromiya Region since June 2009. The influx of
livestock increases the risk of livestock disease
and conflict over scarce resources, according to
FEWS NET.

--- Health and Nutrition ---


9. Since early April, OCHA has reported an increase
in the number of severely malnourished children
admitted into therapeutic feeding programs (TFPs),
with a total of 71,000 cases reported from January
to July 2009. However, TFP admission reporting
rates remain low throughout Ethiopia, averaging 34
percent and hindering an accurate assessment of
malnutrition conditions. OCHA notes that
malnutrition conditions remain of significant
concern, despite improvements from 2008 due to pre-
positioning of ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF)
and more proactive identification and treatment of
severely malnourished children by government health
extension workers with support from the U.N.
Children's Fund (UNICEF) and NGOs. UNICEF estimates
that 242,000 children under-five years of age will
require treatment for SAM through the end of 2009
with increased caseloads expected in 2010 associated
with projected reductions in the main meher crop
harvest.


10. In early September, the U.N. World Health
Organization (WHO) and UNICEF reported more than
18,000 cholera and AWD cases in seven out of ten
regions countrywide. The GFDRE Ministry of Health
anticipates up to an additional 114,000 cases before
the end of the year due to the effects of the rainy
season and increased vulnerability to infection
among food-insecure populations.

--- Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) ---


11. Although widespread, resource-related internal
and cross-border conflict remains under-reported due
to GFDRE sensitivities. In February 2009 alone,
ethnic conflict in Somali and Oromiya regions
displaced more than 100,000 people and resulted in
300 deaths. Following recent clashes along the
Sudanese border, NGOs and U.N. agencies reported the
displacement of an estimated 30,000 individuals
within Gambella Region. The anticipated reduction
in the main meher harvest production coupled with
consecutive seasons of failed rains is predicted to
increase conflict for scarce resources, leading to
increased ethnic violence and displacement.

--- Somali Region Challenges ---


12. Somali Region is one of the most drought-
affected areas in Ethiopia but ongoing counter-
insurgency operations have limited humanitarian
access and response efforts. Although improved from
past years, access remains sporadic, ad-hoc, and
often dependent on local military commander
decisions, despite efforts by the Somali Regional
Government to formalize access procedures.


13. Insurgent activity and security operations have
disrupted trade networks. Restrictions on the
movement of people and livestock, combined with the
failure of past rains, have also exacerbated food
insecurity and malnutrition. Severe water shortages
exist in all seven, highly belg rain-dependent
districts, according to the Somali Regional State
Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau (DPPB).
Consecutive seasons of failed rains associated with
significant livestock losses in 2008 have reduced
coping mechanisms and increased population
vulnerabilities.

---Potential Flooding ---


14. El Nino conditions are expected to result in
normal to above-normal rainfall during the upcoming
October to December rainfall season, according to
the USAID-supported Famine Early Warning Systems
Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET cautions that heavy
rains are likely to result in increased livestock
mortality among weakened animals in drought-affected
areas, flooding, infrastructure damage, reduced
humanitarian and commercial access, and increased
incidents in human and livestock water-related
diseases, such as malaria, diarrheal disease, and
Rift Valley Fever (RVF).

--------------
Disaster Re-Declaration
--------------


15. As a result of current and projected
humanitarian needs resulting from the cumulative
impact of consecutive seasons of failed or poor
rainfall, localized conflict, disease outbreaks,
potential flooding, and high food prices on
increased food insecurity and malnutrition among
vulnerable populations, CDA re-declares a complex
emergency disaster for Ethiopia in FY 2010. It is
beyond the ability of the GFDRE to fully address
increased humanitarian needs. It is in the interest
of the USG to provide humanitarian assistance and
the GFDRE will accept continued USG support.
Therefore, CDA requests USG humanitarian resources
to address urgent humanitarian needs and reduce the
risk of vulnerable populations in Ethiopia.

MUSHINGI