POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS OF THE AFAR REGION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 002155

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PREL EAGR ET
SUBJECT: POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS OF THE AFAR REGION

Classified By: ADCM Michael C. Gonzales for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

Summary
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1. (C) A visit by PolOff to eastern Amhara and southwest Afar
regions in late August sheds light on the political and
economic dynamics of this geographically important region
bordering Djibouti. Opposition political parties reported
multiple cases of harassment and intimidation, and are
cynical about the prospect of a free and fair national
election in 2010. Some Afari people expressed
dissatisfaction with the regional administration which they
consider inept, corrupt, and fiercely loyal to the ruling
party. In meetings with PolOff, government officials
routinely discounted problems the region faced, as
demonstrated by the South Wollo Zonal Administrator's comment
"there are no problems in our zone, and everything is good
and smooth." The Afari Regional President feels the U.S. is
neglecting development in the region, and expressed strong
disappointment in what he perceived as a broken promise by
the U.S. in not realizing the Afambo bridge project. Failed
rains have resulted in a shortage of grazing land, causing
pastoralists around Awash to illegally graze their livestock
in the Awash National Park. Recently-built government-owned
dams and sugar plantation/factory have caused some
competition for resources between the government and Afari
people, forcing some Afaris to relocate. There is some
controversy over whether the Afaris were adequately
compensated and whether the projects are in the best
interests of the Afari people. End Summary.


2. (C) PolOff and FSN Political Specialist visited the towns
of Dessie, Semera, Awash, and Adama between August 24 and 28.
EmbOffs met with opposition political parties, local and
regional administrators, religious leaders, a former
government official, and an Ethiopian Human Rights Council
representative. EmbOffs also visited a DRL-funded "Hope for
Women" project in Chifra woreda, Afar region.

Violating Freedom of Association; Cynicism About Elections
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3. (C) Opposition Afar Liberation Front Party (ALFP) Deputy
Chairman Mohammed Yayu told PolOff that he does not meet
openly with party members for fear of persecution by police
and regional security officals. He said that ALFP members or
suspected supporters are routinely harassed, beaten, and
periodically arrested by police and security officials in an
attempt to recruit them as members of the Afar National
Democratic Party (ANDP),an affiliate of the ruling EPRDF
coalition. He expressed doubt that the 2010 national
election would be free and fair, and was hesitant to campaign
in the next election for fear of endangering his supporters.
Opposition Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ)
representatives in Dessie said that they fully expect to be
beaten, arrested, and possibly killed by police if they
engage in campaigning for the election. But, they are
confident that the people will "vote with their hearts" and
that UDJ will win provided polling stations are not
manipulated.


4. (C) Former Afar government official Here Hamedo (strictly
protect - currently works for the United Nations) and ALFP's
Mohammed Yayu told PolOff that the regional government is
largely viewed as inept, corrupt, and ineffective in
developing the region. He acknowledged that while in the
past the Afar region was neglected, it now has its own budget
and receives subsidies from the federal government. However,
he argued that the money is squandered by local officials.
In describing the Afar regional government's ineptitude, he
said "It's like when people invite you to their house for
dinner, give you meat, but don't give you a knife to cut the
meat." Mohammed added that while the federal government
knows the regional government is inept, it does not take
action because regional officials are intensely loyal to
ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front
(EPRDF).


5. (C) The UDJ party currently has one office in the South
Wollo Zone and 640 registered members. (NOTE: UDJ
representatives told PolOff they use code names to register
members to protect them from harassment. End Note.) In
February, Chairman of the UDJ Dessie branch, Endris Seid,
opened an office in Haik woreda. Immediately following the

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opening ceremony, he was picked up by police, beaten, and
arrested. After being held for three days, he was charged
with failing to notify authorities of the opening, though UDJ
representatives claim that authorities were notified and
permission was granted. Endris was released on bail after
being held for three days, and the case remains pending.
Following the incident federal police and National
Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) officials summoned
UDJ executive members to their offices individually to
question them about their party members and activities. In
July, UDJ's lease for the Haik office expired. UDJ
representatives said that due to intense police harassment,
the landlord refused to renew their contract and subsequently
the office closed.

Human Rights Council Investigator Arrested
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6. (C) In early July, Ethiopian Human Rights Council (EHRCO -
arguably the most prominent human rights organization in
Ethiopia) investigator Mulugeta Fentaw was harassed and
arrested by local police after investigating alleged cases of
harassment of UDJ members in a town near Dessie. PolOff met
with Mulugeta while in Dessie to get first-hand details about
the case. Following an interview with UDJ members, while
waiting at a bus stop, Mulugeta said that woreda official
Makonnen Hussein stole his notebook and allegedly passed it
to woreda Head of Finance and Economic Development, Mohammed
Haji. Immediately following the incident, police accused
Mulugeta of stealing 2,000 birr and arrested him. At the
police station he was searched, and when police found only
200 birr in his possession, they modified the charge to claim
that he stole only 200 birr. Mulugeta was imprisoned for
three days. The judge sentenced him to eight months in
prison, but he appealed to the high court which dismissed the
case. The woreda administration appealed and brought another
charge of "tarnishing the reputation of woreda officials by
bringing false witnesses." Mulugeta again appealed to the
high court, which dismissed the case. One of Mulugeta's
defense witnesses, Alemu Abaineh, was arrested a couple of
days after testifying in court. He was accused of stealing
hand and anti-tank grenades and plotting to attack the
militia. He was sentenced to four years of imprisonment. He
appealed to the high court and was released on bail. The
trial is ongoing.

Afari Leadership Loyal to Ruling Party
--------------


7. (C) According to former Afar government official Here
Hamedo (strictly protect),Afari discontent with the regional
government is growing as they feel they are "colonized by the
Tigrayans." Here told PolOff that three people hold power in
Afar - the Regional President, the EPRDF Party Chief, and the
Head of Regional Security. He said the regional
administration is dominated by Afaris from the northern part
of the region bordering the Tigray region. Regional
President Ismail Ali Sero reportedly fought alongside the
Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) freedom fighters
during the liberation struggle, and some of his family
members are Tigrayan. Here added that membership to the
EPRDF-Affiliate ANDP confers benefits such as preference for
government jobs and promotions on party loyalists.


8. (C) South Wollo (Amhara) Zonal Administrator Seyoum
Mekonnen told PolOff that there are "no problems in our zone,
and everything is good and smooth." When asked about the
issue of narrowing political space, he said that this was an
issue to be discussed with the federal government, and that
it was "not our concern right now. The main issue is
development and addressing the needs of the people." He
claimed that population control in his zone is not a major
problem since families are dependent on farm labor and can
use their numerous children to help out in the fields.
Commenting on Business Process Re-Engineering (BPR),a
Government-wide initiative to promote reform in government
institutions, Seyoum said the purpose was to eliminate
bureaucracy and reduce time and resources needed to solve
problems. He assured PolOff that BPR "has no hidden
objective." BPR will be fully implemented in September, when
the testing phase is completed. While PolOff was visiting
Dessie, a BPR training workshop was underway and all
government offices were closed until the end of August.

Afari President Feels Neglected by U.S.

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9. (C) In a discussion with PolOff, Afar Regional President
Ismail Ali Sero claimed that the U.S. reneged on promised
support for the Afambo Bridge Project. (Note: He claimed
that Ambassador Brazeal promised support for the bridge
during a visit a few years ago. End Note.) He said the Afar
regional government has several development projects ready to
be implemented, but feels neglected by the U.S., which he
feels does not pay adequate attention to the Afar region.
While he admitted that the Productive Safety Net Program
(PSNP) was helping somewhat, he complained that a diet of
wheat alone was not balanced, and that some people got hurt
on the job in the "food for work" program but were not
adequately compensated. PolOff observed that the Afar
Regional President drives a government vehicle with blue
United Nations (UN) license plates. One trusted source told
PolOff that the government uses UN plates to surveil the
region undetected. Ismail told PolOff that there is no
bureaucracy in Afar and an egalitarian mentality prevails,
citing as evidence the fact that Afaris call him by his first
name. Security into the government offices was tight and
PolOff waited 15 minutes for permission to enter the
government office compound. On tribal conflict, Ismail said
that the likelihood of conflict is very low due to the
similarities between the clans and the old cultural system of
elders resolving disputes. He insisted that the Afari people
support U.S. anti-terrorism efforts, and said that the Afari
regional government "scolded the Eritreans" for the 2007
kidnapping of British diplomats and sent Afari elders to help
resolve the issue.

Failed Rains - Illegal Grazing in National Park
-------------- --


10. (C) Awash Fentale Woreda Administrator Loita Konte said
that the failed rains have resulted in serious problems for
Afaris because there is a shortage of grazing land for
animals. This has led many Afari pastoralists from the
surrounding woredas to graze their livestock in the Awash
National Park. Although they know it is illegal (the park
has existed for over 40 years),he said Afaris are breaking
the law in desperation. Park rangers occasionally wrangle
trespasser's cattle and demand a fine of ten birr per animal.
This problem has intensified in the past year due to a
significant decrease of rain compared with last year, with
almost no rain in April, May, or June. The scarcity of
grazing land has also caused sporadic conflicts between the
Afaris and the Kereya tribe from Oromiya, as the Kereya are
creeping into Afari grazing lands. (Note: Most tribal
conflicts reportedly occur in the central region of Afar
bordering Oromiya. End Note.) The failed rains have
affected the northern Afar region the worst, as the
pastoralists were already weakened by the heavy loss of
livestock during the Eritrean-Ethiopian war. Also, the lack
of water affects animal breeding cycles, resulting in
decreased livestock reproduction rates.

Government Projects Receive Mixed Reviews
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11. (C) A major government-owned sugar plantation and two dam
investments along the Awash valley have recently been
completed in the Afar region and a sugar cane processing
plant is being built. Several Afari farmers (cultivating
papaya and oranges) were displaced to make room for the
government projects, but government officials claim that
adequate compensation was awarded. However, several people
told PolOff that while the farmers were compensated, it was
not adequate to offset the loss of means of livelihood for
the farmers. Though the sugar cane factory (expected to be
completed within three years) may create some jobs, most of
the jobs are feared to be given to Tigrayans to "dilute the
population," according to former Afar government official
Here Hamedo (strictly protect). (Note: According to Here,
the majority of employees at the Lake Abderra salt mining
plant in Afar are Tigrayan. Also, most of the dam
construction workers are reportedly Tigrayan. End Note.)
According to Afar Regional President Ismail Ali Sero, the
dams provide several benefits to the region such as
preventing floods and preserving water to ration at a later
time. Also, he claims that once completed, the dams will
provide thousands of locals with jobs. He added that
downstream farmers were paid adequate compensation, and
people whose houses were flooded as a result of the dams were

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moved to better houses provided by the government. Many
worry about the dam's potentially negative impact on the
flora/fauna and ecological system of the Awash valley.

Afar Pastoralist Way of Life Challenged
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12. (C) Former Afar government official Here Hamedo (strictly
protect) argued that the pastoralist lifestyle in Afar is
threatened due to drought and competition for scarce
resources. Awash Fentale Woreda Administrator Loita Konte
said that currently there is a difficult transition period
where people have been displaced (due to government sugar
cane plantation and dam projects) and lost their livelihoods,
but that the situation will soon improve. The government
plans to give the farmers replacement land with irrigation
channels, though this could take a year or two to develop.
Also, once the sugar factory is operational it will provide
alternative employment to some Afaris. He claimed the Afari
community had been consulted when deciding to build the dam
and sugar cane plantations and that after intense debate, the
Afaris were convinced the projects would help the region.
Here Hamedo and an opposition party representative, however,
argue the Afari community was not consulted.

DRL-funded "Hope for Women" Project
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13. (U) PolOff visited DRL-funded Project Concern
International (PCI) "Hope for Women" project in Chifra
Woreda, met with the project advisory committee (relevant
stakeholders- local administrators and self-help
beneficiaries),and observed a self-help cooperative training
meeting. Stakeholders were very positive about the project
and appreciated U.S. help to improve their community. The
local Muslim leader told PolOff that the "Hope for Women"
project has educated him on the harmful effects of female
genital mutilation and early marriage, and "compared with
other organizations the PCI project has really made an impact
because of its close coordination with stakeholders." The
project has made a significant difference in the lives of
Chifra residents in this underserved region, and all
stakeholders expressed a desire to continue the project.


Comment
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14. (C) The insistence of local and regional government
officials to deny the existence of problems in the region and
stick to the party line in meetings with PolOff suggest that
they rely heavily on directives from the federal government.
Even in this remote and traditionally neglected region of
Ethiopia, the ruling EPRDF seemed to have a firm hold on
power. The Afari regional government officials' perceived
loyalty to the ruling party, and hence the perception that
they did not have Afari interests at heart, seemed to be
causing increasing discontent among the people. The Afaris
are considered to be fierce warriors by the Ethiopian
populace, and one only has to look around to see that they
are well-armed (most men carry Kalashnikovs, spears, or large
knives everywhere they go.) Scarcity of adequate grazing
land caused by failed rains could challenge the traditional
Afari pastoralist nomadic lifestyle. Poor rains and scarce
resources, combined with increasing discontent and
frustration with the government, suggest a volatile situation
emerging in the Afar region. End Comment.
MEECE