U.S. EFFORTS IN SUDAN "LAST HOPE" TO AVOID

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002106

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/E, AF/PDPA,
IIP/G/AF, RRU-AF, DRL/RSPRING
NSC FOR MGAVIN
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC
SUBJECT: U.S. EFFORTS IN SUDAN "LAST HOPE" TO AVOID
IMPLOSION

Classified By: CDA Roger Meece for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) During an August 22 meeting with U.S. Special Envoy to
Sudan Gration, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles said the United
States, efforts in Sudan were "the last hope" for a country
on a near-certain path to implosion. He underscored his
support for the Obama Administration's approach to creating a
conducive environment for solutions through engagement.
Meles outlined three main points he believed should shape the
Administration's thinking about Sudan. First, only the
United States could prevent the implosion in Sudan by
facilitating a "civil divorce" between the North and South.
Second, the North's strategic thinking revolves around
maintaining its firm grip on power. Third, the South is
crippled by both the inability of its leadership to make
strategic decisions and by the expectation that the United
States will be its caretaker. Meles closed by pleading that
the U.S. leadership take advantage of the positive momentum
to assist in crafting a solution in Sudan before consequences
of inaction lead to repercussions from Djibouti to Dakar.
End Summary.


2. (SBU) U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan General J. Scott Gration
traveled to Addis Ababa from August 21-22, 2009 to
participate in the concluding days of Darfur movement
unification meetings which took place from August 18-22. At
the conclusion of his stay, he met with Prime Minister Meles
to brief him on the outcome of the talks and to solicit his
views on the situation in Sudan.

Meles: More Hopeful Than Before
--------------


3. (C) Following General Gration's summary of the
reunification talks, Meles opened by admitting he had given
up hope of any solution to the conflict in Sudan. Ethiopia
is now much more hopeful than it has been in the past
four-to-five years due to the efforts of the Obama
Administration and the work of General Gration. Meles
underscored his support for the Administration's approach to
creating a conducive environment for solutions through
engagement. He called U.S. efforts in Sudan "the last hope"
for a country on a near-certain path to implosion.

The U.S. Should Facilitate a "Civil Divorce"
--------------


4. (C) Meles stated that only the United States could prevent
the implosion in Sudan by facilitating a "civil divorce"
between the North and South. He admitted that he used to
believe a long term status quo would have been the best
option - a "Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) beyond the
CPA" - but that is now out of the question. He suggested
the U.S. find a way to postpone the 2011 referendum, and that
this could be accomplished through legislative rather than
political means. He was not worried that the South would
make a unilateral declaration of independence following the
referendum. Meles also emphasized that the North and South
needed to engage in dialogue on post-referendum issues.

North Will Not Loosen Firm Grip on Power
--------------


5. (C) The North's strategic thinking revolves around
maintaining its firm grip on power, according to Meles.
Khartoum's assumption was that signing the CPA was the
necessary price to be in the good graces of the United
States. Meles emphasized the NCP's fear that that USG
remains intent on regime change in Khartoum and until that
fear is addressed, broader engagement will not be possible.
He continued by saying that the North believed international
assistance would start to flow and that it would be removed
from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list.


6. (C) Meles said the National Congress Party (NCP) craves a

ADDIS ABAB 00002106 002 OF 003


solution with the United States to resolve the Darfur and
North-South crises. He warned, however, that any solution to
Darfur and the North-South crises must allow Bashir to retain
power or &he will take Sudan and the region to hell.8 The
United States, Meles recommended, should not pursue regime
change, and offered former South African president Thabo
Mbeki's truth and reconciliation commission as a possible way
out.


7. (C) When General Gration queried Meles on his perception
of Bashir's team, Meles cautioned that it was "unwise to
'play it' because it is too easy to make a miscalculation."
He said they were arrogant, self-centered and always stayed
together at all costs. They are jostling for power and money
on a daily basis and Ethiopia has stopped trying to speculate
on internal movements in Khartoum, Meles said.

South Crippled by Lack of Strategic Leadership
-------------- --


8. (C) Turning to the perspective of the South, Meles
emphasized that Juba is crippled by the inability of its
leadership to make strategic decisions. This situation has
been exacerbated since the CPA was signed, and the vacuum is
now bigger than before. The lack of leadership is a "fact of
life that will be with us for quite some time," he added. In
addition, the South harbors the expectation that the United
States will be its caretaker. "The South expects the U.S. to
do everything they have failed to do without chipping in
anything," he lamented.


9. (C) Meles said Juba fully expected events to move in a
"negative direction" including a referendum result of
independence for the South and a destabilized North that
would go to war prior to, or after, the referendum. Meles
felt the South expected others to solve the situation for
them and that they believed the previous U.S. Administration
gave them assurances of that type. He said Ethiopia had
tried to disabuse them of any such expectations of assistance
from the GoE, saying Ethiopia would not do their job for
them.


10. (C) Meles said he told the South they needed to work out
broad parameters for after the 2011 referendum, but Salva
Kiir responded he did not trust the North and did not trust
the CPA. Meles concluded that if there was to be a
postponement of the referendum, if would have to be "imposed
on the SPLM with expectations."

Sudan's Downfall Could Lead to Regional Crisis
-------------- --


11. (C) Meles reiterated several times his fear that
implosion of Sudan would engulf the region. In particular,
Ethiopia is worried about the wave of religious extremism
emerging from a failed state. Meles added that Sudan cold be
ten times worse than Somalia, and that in the South,
massacres might mirror those in Eastern Congo multiplied by a
factor of ten. He also underscored that promises from the
Bush Administration and some Congress members to President
Salva Kiir have served to create a dependency in the South,
which expects that the United States will provide unlimited
economic and military support if it is threatened. Meles
stressed that the United States must correct these
expectations if they are unrealistic.

U.S. Leadership Should Build on Positive Momentum
-------------- --------------


12. (C) PM Meles closed by "pleading to the U.S. leadership"
that it assist in fashioning a solution for Sudan that can
come out of positive movement and momentum. He stressed his
"deeply held fears" that if the United States fails in this
effort, there is not hope for Sudan and the consequences will
be felt from Djibouti to Dakar.

Participants in Prime Minister Meles Meeting
--------------

ADDIS ABAB 00002106 003 OF 003




13. (U) General J, Scott Gration, U.S. special Envoy to Sudan
Tim Shortley, Deputy to the Special Envoy, Office of the U.S.
Special Envoy to Sudan Miriam Estrim, Office of the U.S.
Special Envoy to Sudan Charge D'Affaires, Ambassador Roger
Meece Kathryn Pongonis, Deputy Political/Economic Counselor,
U.S. Embassy Addis Ababa, Notetaker.


14. (U) SE Gration's Office has cleared on this cable.
MEECE