MADAGASCAR POLITICAL RIVALS AGREE TO MEET IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001745

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/E, AF/S AND AF/RSA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MA AU
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR POLITICAL RIVALS AGREE TO MEET IN
MOZAMBIQUE

REF: ANTANANARIVO 526


1. (SBU) Summary: The second International Contact Group
meeting on Madagascar hosted by the African Union (AU) July
22 condemned the violence occurring in Madagascar, called on
all parties to refrain from extremism, expressed concern
about arbitrary arrests, welcomed the appointment of former
Mozambique President Joaquim Chissano as SADC mediator, and
decided that a meeting between the country's four principal
political rivals (Ravalomanana, Ratsiraka, Zafy, and
Rajoelina) under Chissano's leadership, would take place in
Mozambique by the first week of August. In a preparatory
meeting of the EU, France, UK, and the US, France indicated
that it intended to continue its military assistance to
Madagascar and denied any involvement in supporting the coup.
End summary.


2. (SBU) The AU hosted the second meeting of the
International Contact Group (ICG) on Madagascar July 22 in
Addis Ababa. In preparation for the meeting, the French
Ambassador to the AU hosted a dinner with three special
envoys (OIF, UN, AU) and EU and American representatives July
21, and the EU hosted a meeting with French, British, and
American diplomats the morning of the 22nd. These efforts
helped to bring the international community to consensus on
the main points to be included in the communique resulting
from the ICG meeting, including the need for a consensual
political process leading to fair and free elections, a
warning against unilateral moves, and a condemnation of those
who inflame the situation by using violence and extreme
measures.


3. (SBU) Although agreement was reached on the main points,
there was disagreement on the idea of singling out the high
transition authority (HAT) by calling for its continued
isolation, and on calling for international partners to
suspend military assistance. In the morning meeting of July
22, French Elysee representative Remi Marechaux made it clear
that France had no intention of suspending its military
assistance to Madagascar, and argued that the plane given to
the Malagasy in February was given prior to the coup and
that, despite rumors to the contrary, France was not involved
in fomenting or supporting the coup. Although all
participants of the meeting hosted by the EU agreed that the
naming of President Chissano as a mediator was a positive
step, France supported the view that the AU should maintain
the lead role, instead of SADC, unless the AU clearly decided
to delegate that role.


4. (SBU) AU Commission Chairperson Jean Ping opened the ICG
meeting by calling for a "spirit of compromise" and rejecting
"unilateralism" in the resolution of the Malagasy crisis.
The four envoys (OIF, UN, AU, SADC),as well as SADC mediator
Chissano, then briefed the participants on the events that
had transpired since the last ICG meeting April 30. Chissano
explained that the four Malagasy political rivals had agreed
to meet in Mozambique to move discussions forward. UN
Special Envoy Tiebile Drame lamented that the decision made
in May that all four protagonists would be able to
participate in future presidential elections was the root of
current violence and instability. He also asserted that the
key to resolving the current impasse was to reach agreement
that none of the four would run for president. Such an
agreement would pave the way for a deal on amnesty, an issue
which had derailed the negotiations in June. (Comment: While
a good idea, it is unlikely to be accepted by Rajoelina or
Ravalomanana. End comment.)


5. (SBU) The participants were then given a chance to
comment; French Elysee representative Marechaux said that
France was opposed to unilateral solutions, expressed concern
about the deterioration of the economic situation,
particularly with the threats of EU aid suspension under the
Cotonou agreement and the potential loss of AGOA benefits,
and saluted the appointment of Chissano as SADC mediator.
(Comment: Marechaux took the lead speaking role, rather than
the A/S equivalent from the Quai D'Orsay Stephane Gompertz,
who was also present, indicating the French presidency's
interest in the issue. End comment.) Ambassador Yamamoto
welcomed the leadership of Chissano, seconded the EU's point
that the Malagasy should take ownership of the process,
called for a consensual political process leading to free and
fair elections, raised concerns of human rights abuses,

ADDIS ABAB 00001745 002 OF 002


violence, and arbitrary searches and seizures, called for the
restoration of rule of law, and mentioned the measures the
USG had taken to pressure the HAT by suspending aid. The
British supported these points and called for urgent action.
The EU warned against unilateral actions and reiterated
concerns about human rights abuses and violence.


6. (SBU) Following those comments, the leaders of the
Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana delegations, the only two present
as the HAT boycotted and Zafy's delegation reportedly
encountered logistical problems, were invited in to speak.
Ratsiraka's representative called for the annulment of all
legal charges against Ratsiraka and his supporters as a
prerequisite to negotiations. Ravalomanana's representative
expressed concern about the lack of the HAT's political will
to negotiate, as shown by their absence in Addis, and the
threats, intimidation, and arrests of Ravalomanana
supporters.


7. (SBU) During the discussion about the communique, it was
agreed that a mission led by SADC, the AU, OIF, and the UN
would travel to Madagascar the last week of July to prepare
for the meeting of the four principals in Mozambique to be
held no later than the first week of August. Chissano
requested international support for this meeting, to which
the EU responded favorably, but without commitment. The text
of the communique will be forwarded by email separately once
received.


8. (SBU) Comment: Although the envoys were opposed to
singling out and strongly condemning the HAT for fear of
alienating them prior to negotiations, and the question of
whether SADC or the AU has the lead was not clearly resolved,
the results of the ICG-Madagascar were overall positive. The
agreement by the four presidents and transition leader to
meet face to face in Mozambique in August, finalized while
the ICG was in progress, and the ICG's support for Chissano's
lead on this meeting, were breakthroughs that will hopefully
be put into action. End comment.
YAMAMOTO