WILL VOTE FOR FOOD- REPORTED POLITICIZATION OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001612

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV EAID PHUM KDEM PREL ET
SUBJECT: WILL VOTE FOR FOOD- REPORTED POLITICIZATION OF
DONOR RESOURCES AS ELECTIONS APPROACH

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (C) A four day trip to the Southern Nations and
Nationalities (SNNPR) and Oromiya regions shed light on the
possible politicization of donor cash and food resources
delivered through the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP),
coercive recruitment tactics by the ruling Ethiopian People's
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF),opposition party
apprehension about participation in the upcoming 2010
national elections, and renewed ethnic conflict over regional
boundaries. While concerns about the politicization of the
PSNP -- and distribution of other public services -- have
been raised before, the upcoming elections are likely to
intensify the pervasiveness of coercive recruitment tactics,
including the withholding of food aid, seeds, and fertilizer
from poor farmers. Opposition parties expressed that they
will only participate in the upcoming elections if there is a
significant opening of political space. While the government
may allow opposition parties to campaign a few months before
the election, underlying factors including
coercion/manipulation of voters, the partiality of the
National Electoral Board (NEB),and the vast disparity of
resources between the ruling and opposition parties have
resulted in a political playing field strongly tilted in
favor of the ruling party. End Summary.

Politicization of Humanitarian Assistance
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2. (C) Several opposition party representatives in the towns
of Hosaena, Durame, Shone, and Awassa reported that cash and
food distributions under the PSNP are being used as a
political tool by the EPRDF. Representatives from all towns
consistently told PolOffs that local administrators who
manage the PSNP force farmers to register as EPRDF members in
order to receive PSNP benefits - six months of predictable
transfers of cash or food in payment of public works
activities. Microfinance loans have also reportedly been
linked to EPRDF membership. Opposition United Ethiopian
Democratic Forces (UEDF) representatives in Shone said that
local officials issue loans to farmers at a high interest
rate and collect the farmer's PSNP allotments as loan
payments. An employee of the Ministry of Agriculture in
Awassa (also a member of UEDF) said that the government is
using PSNP money to recruit local EPRDF cadres by adding them
to the list of PSNP beneficiaries. UEDF member Samuel Siedo
in Shone town told PolOffs that he, along with Dawit Dedebo,
and Matheos Cambore, were cut off from PSNP support and told
they must join the EPRDF to be re-instated in the program.
He complained to the regional administration, who also told
him he must join the EPRDF to receive assistance. Local
officials reportedly told him, "Why don't you go to Beyene
Petros (leader of UEDF party) for money?" Currently, USAID
is not supporting any PSNP activities in the SNNP region
where the alleged manipulation took place. Additionally, USG
resources are less likely than other donors' resources to be
manipulated in the PSNP since USAID implementing partners
have a higher level of accountability than the pooled donor
funds, which are administered through regional and local
governments.


3. (SBU) According to several opposition party members, the
EPRDF uses a variety of recruitment tactics. Civil servants
who register as EPRDF members reportedly receive preferential
treatment in job assignment, promotion, and professional
development opportunities. Interlocuteurs complained that
the government's Business Process Re-Engineering (BPR)
initiative is being used to rid the civil service of
opposition party members. Poor farmers rely on the
government for subsidized seeds and fertilizers, food
assistance, and tax reductions, and these benefits are being
linked to EPRDF membership, with refusal to join the party
prompting a denial of further access to services or
agricultural inputs. Students reported that they are more
likely to be assigned by the government to the university of
their choice if they are a registered EPRDF member. (NOTE:
University students reported that there was almost no
political dialogue happening at the university due to fear of
retaliation. END NOTE). A female All Ethiopia Unity Party
(AEUP) member reported that government women's associations
are also politicized, with EPRDF members benefiting

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disproportionately.


4. (C) Many expressed frustration with the U.S. Government
for the "perpetuation of a dictatorship" by allowing the
EPRDF to use foreign aid to strengthen the party. USAID
implementing partner GOAL representatives who have worked
extensively in the Oromiya and SNNPR regions said that food
insecurity there is chronic, and they feel that the Ethiopian
government urgently needs to address long-term food security.
The GOAL representatives said that there are increasing
signs that food aid is creating dependency and decreasing
coping mechanisms.

Will Opposition Parties Participate in Elections?
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5. (SBU) Opposition party members expressed apprehension
about participating in the upcoming 2010 national elections.
During the 2008 local elections they were subject to severe
harassment, and because that election was a sweeping victory
for the EPRDF, some feel that the struggle was in vain.
Local party representatives said there is a possibility that
they will not participate in the elections if there is not
significant opening of political space. Opposition party
members expressed little confidence in the local NEB
representatives and domestic observation groups, as they
consider them loyal to the ruling party. Opposition
representatives are confident that they have significant
support in rural areas, despite the EPRDF's tactics to lure
supporters away. While most opposition parties with whom we
met had offices, representatives reported that members are
afraid to come to the office for fear of losing government
benefits. Some opposition party leaders informed us that
they have adopted a tactic of encouraging their supporters to
join the ruling party and accept all benefits provided in
response, but to still vote with their conscience on election
day.

Renewed Conflict
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6. (SBU) PolOffs were unable to visit the Boricha
Stabilization Center after local authorities warned that the
situation was unstable due to renewed violence over regional
boundaries. Scarcity of resources is creating tension among
ethnic groups who have lived together peacefully for decades.
In West Hararge, in a meeting with GOAL representatives,
local officials expressed fear that violence would soon break
out because relief aid will be discontinued due to a shortage
of food.

Comment
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7. (C) With national elections less than a year away, the
ruling EPRDF party seems to be taking measures to further
tighten its grip on power in rural areas well ahead of the
elections. Using every resource available, including
humanitarian assistance provided by the international
community, the ruling party is creating a system to ensure
that peasants must rely on it for their livelihoods, and
demanding loyalty in exchange. Ethiopia may see an outward
opening of political space as the election draws nearer, but
one should remain cognizant of the underlying system of
patronage. The U.S. Mission and allied donor partners will
initiate an investigation into the allegations of diversion
of PSNP resources for political purposes. Pending the
findings of that investigation, the program's monitoring
procedures may require re-evaluation to ensure that ours and
other donors' assistance is not being used to repress
politically the people we are trying to help. End Comment.
YAMAMOTO