PRIME MINISTER MELES ON TFG SURVIVAL AND ERITREAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001608

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL SO ER ET DJ
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER MELES ON TFG SURVIVAL AND ERITREAN
ATTACKS ON DJIBOUTI

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) In a three hour July 6 meeting with Assistant
Secretary Johnnie Carson, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles
praised U.S. support of cash and arms to the Somali
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) as essential for the
survival of the TFG. Meles urged the U.S. to strengthen
Somaliland and Puntland as critical to fight extremism in
Somalia. Meles added that Ethiopia would not participate in
any regional stabilization force in Somalia, but would
consider helping the African Union Mission in Somalia
(AMISOM) should their evacuation from Somalia become
necessary.


2. (C) On Eritrea, the Prime Minister urged the U.S. to
support the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
and African Union (AU) call for a selective travel ban on
senior Eritrean officials and a cutoff of remittances from
the U.S. to Eritrea as an effective means to curtail Eritrean
regional destabilizing activities. Meles raised alarm that
Eritrea was recruiting and training Afari rebels to undermine
Djibouti's security which would contribute to destabilizing
the region and increase Ethiopia's insecurity. End Summary.

SUPPORT FOR TFG CRITICAL
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3. (C) Prime Minister Meles told visiting Assistant Secretary
Carson during a three hour meeting on July 6 that U.S.
provision of USD 1.5 million in cash and 40 tons of
ammunition to the TFG was critical to the TFG's survival.
This will contribute to the TFG's efforts to solidify its
position and defend itself against the onslaught of
al-Shabaab extremist elements. Meles urged the U.S. to
consider seriously supporting Somaliland and Puntland as a
means to defend themselves as well as support the TFG against
extremist forces. Meles agreed with A/S Carson that Ethiopia
should not participate in any potential regional
stabilization force sent to Somalia. Ethiopian forces would
be a lightening rod attracting opposition from the Somalis.
But, Meles recommended to Carson not to ignore Ethiopia
because it plays a crucial role in the region. Ethiopian
forces are fortifying their positions along the border as a
warning to al-Shabaab not to attack or infiltrate into
Ethiopia. Further, Ethiopian forces would, Meles noted,
consider assisting the evacuation of AMISOM forces should
that become necessary. In this scenario, Ethiopian forces
would be critical in supporting efforts to stabilize Somalia.


4. (C) Meles urged the Assistant Secretary to consider
supporting parts of the IGAD/AU recommendations to the United
Nations for sanctions against Eritrea as an effective means
to curb Eritrea's destabilizing activities. Meles said that
he understood the difficulties of the Security Council in
enforcing a no-fly zone of airports and blockade of certain
ports used by extremists. He asked the U.S. to consider two
conditions which would be much easier to implement. A
selective travel ban of senior Eritrean officials would send
a clear message to the Eritrean leadership that activities by
its senior officials, including training and pay-offs to
extremists, would not be tolerated. Further, cutting off
remittances from the U.S. to Eritrea would have a significant
impact on denying Eritrea's ability to procure arms and
weapons for extremists.

ERITREA'S EFFORTS TO DESTABILIZE DJIBOUTI
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5. (C) Meles cautioned A/S Carson about Eritrea's efforts to
recruit and train Afari rebels and infiltrate them into
Djibouti to undermine Djiboutian authority and create
instability through terrorism and military action. If
Eritrea succeeds in destabilizing Djibouti, it would
destabilize the region and add to Ethiopia's insecurity along
the border. With a sizable Afari population in Ethiopia,
Eritrea's activities would also directly contribute to
creating potential instability within Ethiopia.


6. (C) Finally, Meles said that Ethiopia supports A/S
Carson's efforts to reach out to Eritrea in an attempt to

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stop its destabilizing activities and normalize relations.
Such dialogue is always useful and potentially helpful, but
Meles cautioned that he doubted President Isaias and Eritrea
would engage the U.S. or stop their activities.


7. (U) A/S Carson cleared this message.
YAMAMOTO