ETHIOPIA: MINISTER BEREKET OFFERS EPRDF VIEWS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000107

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E, AF/PDPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KPAO ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: MINISTER BEREKET OFFERS EPRDF VIEWS ON
JAILED UDJ LEADER, CSO LAW, ETHIOPIA'S DEMOCRATIC
TRAJECTORY AND IMPROVED RELATIONS WITH VOA

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 63

B. ADDIS ABABA 31

C. 08 ADDIS ABABA 3116

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) The Ethiopian government (GOE) will not release the
re-jailed Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ) leader
Birtukan Mideksa (Ref A) because the state must uphold rule
of law and Birtukan violated the terms of her pardon,
long-time Special Advisor to the Prime Minister Advisor and
newly appointed Minister of Communication Affairs BEREKET
Simon told the Ambassador on January 15. BEREKET explained
that the recently passed Charities and Societies Proclamation
(Ref B),which regulates civil society organizations (CSOs),
will not affect development activities but is important
because it encourages Ethiopia to develop indigenous
capacity. "Democracy is an existential issue for Ethiopia,"
BEREKET said, offering the views of the ruling Ethiopian
People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF),and adding
that democracy is necessary to ensure Ethiopia's peace and
stability. Ethiopia hopes to broaden democratic
participation through the empowerment of successful rural and
urban entrepreneurs who have a stake in the constitutional
order and can represent their own interests peacefully,
BEREKET added. Ethiopia will permit opposition parties to
campaign freely in the 2010 national elections, BEREKET said.
BEREKET described the role of the new Communications Affairs
Bureau, which will coordinate government messaging and public
diplomacy in Ethiopia following the dissolution the Ministry
of Information, and lauded improved communication between the
Ethiopian government and the Voice of America's Horn of
Africa service (Ref C). End Summary.


2. (C) On January 15, the Ambassador held a working lunch
with BEREKET as part of Embassy efforts to reach out to EPRDF
central committee members. PAO and A/PolCouns participated.
BEREKET noted he will travel to the United States this summer
for his first visit in more than ten years. PAS offered to
facilitate meetings for him in Washington at his request.

GOE Will Not Budge On Birtukan
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador pressed BEREKET to help resolve the
issue of re-jailed opposition leader Birtukan. In response,
BEREKET said that the GOE had given Birtukan "every chance"
to abide by the terms of her pardon for her alleged role in
the aftermath of the 2005 elections. Instead, BEREKET said,
Birtukan "transgressed the law" by violating the agreement
and speaking about the circumstances of her pardon. If the
Ethiopian government fails to uphold the rule of law in this
case, BEREKET said, rule of law will "be diminished" and the
government will encounter serious "pitfalls." This matter is
"related to issues of violence, and we can't give in to
violence and pressure," BEREKET said. BEREKET noted that the
GOE believes that the Ethiopian public is largely supportive
of its measures in this case.

BEREKET: CSO Law Will Not Impair Development Activities
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Ethiopia's new CSO law will not in any way impair
development activities that help the Ethiopian people,
BEREKET said. Citizens, BEREKET added, should advocate for
their rights without being financed by foreign countries.
BEREKET acknowledged that Ethiopia needs "constructive
engagement" with its international partners and is more than
willing to work on matters of mutual interest, but he said
that the GOE should "be given the benefit of the doubt that
we are doing good things for our country." The GOE's "basic
interest is to transform the country developmentally and
democratically," BEREKET noted.


5. (C) "Both development and democracy are existential issues
for us," BEREKET said, explaining that, in the view of the

ADDIS ABAB 00000107 002 OF 003


government, Ethiopia needs a home-grown democracy and "we
either do it or perish." BEREKET observed that Ethiopia
intends to abide by universal democratic principles such as
separation of powers but will implement democracy in
accordance with its own culture. Noting that every
democratic system is different, BEREKET remarked that
"blanket acceptance" of Western recommendations had led many
African countries to crisis because democracy cannot be
imposed and populations were not prepared. Ethiopia has a
good constitution, but the government must guard against
opposition groups or terrorists and "those who see violence
as the way out" from using democratic mechanisms to undermine
Ethiopia's democracy, BEREKET added. Ethiopia must rebuff
the "African tendency to see politics as a zero-sum game,"
BEREKET said, noting that the Ethiopian government wants to
"streamline the opposition so they play by the rules and do
not have to face consequences for transgressing the law." At
the same time, "we do not want to stifle dissent," BEREKET
said.

Ethiopia's Three Cardinal Problems
--------------


6. (C) Speaking on behalf of the EPRDF, BEREKET said Ethiopia
faces three "cardinal" problems that affect its stability:
"backwardness" (which he described as the historical absence
of democratic/good governance culture); poverty; and a
historical lack of peace and stability. BEREKET said the
EPRDF sees the solutions to these three problems as
interrelated and concurrent, not sequential. In BEREKET's
view, the EPDRF has prioritized democracy by necessity but
must now place more emphasis on economic development. In
addition, where good governance fails and promises of
development are unmet, BEREKET said, citing the Ogaden,
"people get angry and violent."

BEREKET Forecasts Free and Fair 2010 Elections
-------------- -


7. (C) BEREKET said the GOE wants to work together with
legitimate opposition parties to create an "atmosphere of
tolerance" in support of a stable, growing democracy,
although he added that "sometimes the opposition sends the
wrong public messages that are not in the interests of the
country or our international partners." BEREKET said he
believes that down the line opposition parties will be able
to unseat the EPRDF, just as they won the Addis Ababa city
elections in 2005, but he said he doubted they would have
much success in the 2010 national elections because they have
not built support in the countryside. BEREKET added that,
from the EPRDF's perspective, "we are a rural society with
one interest group: farmers. Once the farmers give their
support to one party, the others cannot get it. If the EPRDF
loses the countryside, we can't hold power. We need the will
of the people behind us: the gun won't work in Ethiopia now.
We have almost sovereign regions. No army can control the
regions without local support. If the EPRDF is defeated at
the ballot box it would mean we have lost the regions. If we
ever tried to retain control of the regions by force, it
would lead to disaster."


8. (C) In response to the Ambassador's questions, BEREKET
said that he believes the 2010 elections will be as
democratic and competitive as the run-up to the 2005
elections because "it is the proper thing to do." While the
EPRDF will try to win, BEREKET added, "the opposition will
have sufficient space to pass their message." Although
Ethiopian law mandates a three month campaign season, BEREKET
said he would like to stretch the campaign to six months or
more. BEREKET said Ethiopia's 2010 budget will include
provisions for public financing for political parties, but
added that campaign finance legislation has yet to be
strictly implemented, but he hopes the National Election
Board (NEB) will "look into it soon." NOTE: Opposition
parties claim the law, which calls for parties to produce
lists of all contributors, will effectively kill their
funding because potential contributors will not want their
names on lists that the government could use for retribution
against opposition members. END NOTE.

ADDIS ABAB 00000107 003 OF 003




9. (C) BEREKET acknowledged that some kebele (village)
authorities may undermine democratic goals in their bid to
hold onto their seats, but said that in a "fundamental
departure from the past" the GOE is "working on two levels"
to mitigate such effects. First, BEREKET said, the
government is seeking to ensure rural people do not equate
income with government jobs by successfully creating rich
farmers who can advocate for their own interests in a free
market system. "We see a real capitalist class emerging,"
BEREKET said, "with new economic forces that do not rely on
the government. Rich farmers should be the leaders in rural
areas. They can accept innovative ideas (that is how they
built their wealth) and be role models. The government will
be guided by these entrepreneurs and we want to expand this
class to the urban areas. As they become more wealthy, they
become more interested in peace and democracy to protect
their economic interests." Likewise, BEREKET said the GOE
aims to accelerate urbanization in order to build a business
class that can, through wealth generation, better support
democracy by advancing Ethiopia economically. He added that
the current opposition parties represent neither farmers nor
business interests and therefore are "just political."
Still, BEREKET noted, the EPRDF is willing to restart
interparty dialogue under the auspices of the National
Electoral Board, and has identified parliamentary
representatives for that purpose. Second, BEREKET said, the
GOE will reprimand "those even on our side who make mistakes"
in overzealously pursuing partisan interests at the expense
of democracy.

New Communication Affairs Bureau
--------------


10. (C) BEREKET offered details on the role of the new
Communication Affairs Bureau, which replaced the Ministry of
Information. BEREKET said the Bureau will hold regular press
conferences and attempt to respond in a timely manner to
media inquiries, BEREKET said. BEREKET will handle the
official government response on "serious" issues but will
ensure that trained spokespeople will be able to handle more
routine responses. The Ethiopian government trained roughly
500 persons over the past year to work public relations in
various ministries, BEREKET said, about 250 of whom will work
directly for the Bureau. BEREKET said the Bureau will
"connect the dots" for Ethiopia's inter-ministry process and
ensure dissemination of and consistency of messaging
throughout the government.

Improved Communication with Voice of America
--------------


11. (C) BEREKET praised Voice of America (VOA) Horn of Africa
Chief David Arnold for improving communication between VOA
and the Ethiopian government. BEREKET noted that he had
recently given an interview to VOA and that the service had
fairly represented his interview on air. He added that
although there is "history" between the government and VOA,
he is willing to "give VOA a chance" as the Communication
Affairs Bureau forms up.
YAMAMOTO