NIGERIA, ECOWAS TO STAND FIRM ON GUINEA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000075

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV ECOWAS PREL KDEM GV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA, ECOWAS TO STAND FIRM ON GUINEA

REF: 08 ABUJA 2518

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b
& d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On January 13, Poloff met with the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs' ECOWAS Desk Officer, B.A. Nurudeen to
discuss Nigeria's and ECOWAS' stance toward the coup in
Guinea after the January 10 summit of regional Heads of
State. Nurudeen emphasized Nigeria's commitment to working
within ECOWAS as it urges Guinea's military leaders to
schedule elections at the soonest possible opportunity,
preferably within 2009. He said that only mild political
sanctions would be placed on Guinea for now, and could not
say what might trigger a stronger, more substantive response
should an elections timetable become protracted. Finally, he
also described the circumstances under which Nigeria assumed
ECOWAS' mantle of leadership -- which appears to have been
something the GON neither sought nor wants. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On January 13, subsequent to the January 10 Summit
of ECOWAS Heads of State, the MFA's ECOWAS Desk Officer B.A.
Nurudeen described Nigeria's stance toward Guinea as being
one of "no tolerance" for the recent coup, and said that the
GON would continue to use ECOWAS as the primary vehicle
through which it would deal with Guinea. Nigeria's actions
would follow ECOWAS' political protocols, which call for
"zero tolerance" for subversion of the democratic process in
member states; suspension from Head of State-level meetings,
for now, is as far as ECOWAS is willing to go in terms of
political sanctions. Nigeria would treat the National
Council for Democracy and Development's (CNDD) promises to
move rapidly toward elections, and their promises not to
contest in those elections once they were held, as having
been made in good faith. Nigeria is calling for a 6-12 month
election timetable, subsequent to the completion of a review
of the Constitution, which he said was highly unpopular among
ordinary Guineans. When asked if former Nigerian President
Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida's statements, made while serving
as Yar'Adua's envoy, sent a mixed message (he said the coup
plotters are "patriots," resulting in January 8 headlines
such as the Daily Trust's "IBB Endorses Coup in Guinea"),
Nurudeen said that Babangida's words had been taken out of
context and merely reflected his personal sympathies, not the
GON's official stand.


3. (SBU) Nurudeen also described the circumstances under
which Nigeria was given Chairmanship of the Heads of State
Authority (reftel). Following Burkina Faso's term in the
seat, which is widely viewed as having been effective and
robust, it was expected that Liberia or Sierra Leone would
take the position, but both begged off. After discussions
"dragged on" and it was clear that no other anglophone
country would step up, Nurudeen said the Chairmanship was
"imposed" on Nigeria. Nurudeen could not articulate what
President Yar'Adua's plans might be for ECOWAS, and said that
no additional MFA staff have yet been detailed to help plan
the GON's next steps -- in fact, Nurudeen gave the appearance
that assigning additional staff had not even occurred to
anyone in the MFA.


4. (C) COMMENT: Nigeria seems to have no sticks, and few
carrots, to offer Guinea. The two countries have little
trade between them, and francophone Senegal's expressions of
support will echo in Conakry much louder that anglophone
Nigeria's disapproval. ECOWAS' track record of attempting to
apply its "zero tolerance" policy in situations of electoral
fraud and coups is extremely uneven. Given widespread
unofficial sentiment that actions in Guinea were
understandable, if not laudable, in light of its recent
history, we expect ECOWAS to be very patient, if not
indulgent, should the CNDD delay elections into 2010 and
beyond.


5. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: If ECOWAS is looking to the GON, in
its role as the Chairman of the Heads of State Authority, to
energize ECOWAS and drive its agenda, the Community is in for
a moribund year. The achievements of Yar'Adua -- popularly
known as Baba Go-Slow -- in pursuing his own agenda have thus

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far been sparse; one would expect even less in pursuit of a
role he does not want and, nearly a month into his term,
still has not begun to plan for. END COMMENT.


6. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
Piascik