Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ABUJA1669
2009-09-10 15:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGER DELTA MILITANTS' CASH OUT NO HARBINGER OF

Tags:  PGOV PREL NI MX 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2643
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHUJA #1669/01 2531542
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 101542Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6993
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA PRIORITY 2077
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PRIORITY 1030
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS PRIORITY 1939
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001669 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/W, INR/AA;
STATE PASS TO USTR (AGAMA)
ENERGY FOR GPERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI MX
SUBJECT: NIGER DELTA MILITANTS' CASH OUT NO HARBINGER OF
PEACE

Classified By: Political Counselor James P. McAnulty
for reasons in Sections 1.4. (B) and (D)

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001669

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/W, INR/AA;
STATE PASS TO USTR (AGAMA)
ENERGY FOR GPERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI MX
SUBJECT: NIGER DELTA MILITANTS' CASH OUT NO HARBINGER OF
PEACE

Classified By: Political Counselor James P. McAnulty
for reasons in Sections 1.4. (B) and (D)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) With the announcement by President Yar,Adua that the
Nigerian government (GON) would not extend the amnesty
deadline beyond October 4, the two-month program has reached
its half-way point with at best mixed results. Militants of
varying importance have signed up for amnesty and surrendered
weapons, while others continued to consider their options.
Contacts in the diplomatic community have given a mixed
review of results to date. Representatives of three Niger
Delta states plan to visit Chiapas later this year to learn
from earlier Mexican experiences in dealing with Zapatista
militants. END SUMMARY.

--------------
NO AMNESTY EXTENSION
--------------


2. (C) President Yar,adua announced in early September that
he would not extend his amnesty deadline beyond October 4.
He warned that militants who refused to embrace amnesty would
be "on their own." UN Development Program (UNDP) Peace and
Development Advisor Onadipe confirmed at a September 4 donors
meeting that, based on his conversations with GON officials,
the Nigerian Defense Ministry and government had no intention
of extending the deadline. He agreed with predictions by
UNDP and diplomatic community colleagues that the military's
Joint Task Force (JTF) may quickly begin military action
after the October 4 deadline.

--------------
SOME KEY MILITANTS ACCEPT AMNESTY
--------------


3. (SBU) Several Niger Delta militants, including two major
leaders, signed up for amnesty as of early September.
Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)
leader Henry Okah accepted amnesty even before the amnesty
period formally began August 6, pledging a halt to attacks in
Nigeria. Shortly thereafter, MEND announced a 60-day
cease-fire, set to end September 15. MEND Field Commander
Victor Ben Ibikabowei, known as "General Boyloaf," and 32
associates followed suit, accepting amnesty during a
well-publicized ceremony with President Yar,Adua August 7 in

Abuja. Associates included Solomom Ndigbara (also known as
"Osama Bin Laden"),Toruma Ngogholo, Karikoro (the
&General8),Africa Owei Ukparasia, Joshua Maciver, Ezizi
Ogunboss (&Commander Ogunboss8),Emikor Don, Reuben Wilson,
and Great Nelson. Additionally, according to the press,
Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF) member Wisdom
Amachere and militants Goodluck Mena and Dennis Gunnye, based
in Khana and Rivers States, agreed to amnesty.

--------------
TWO ADDITIONAL, KEY LEADERS IN TALKS WITH GON
--------------


4. (C) Presidential Amnesty Panel spokesperson Timiebi
Koripamo-Agary confirmed to the press that two additional,
key Niger Delta militants -- MEND leader Government
Ekpumopolo, known as Tompolo based in Delta State, and NDPV
co-founder Ateke Tom, based in Rivers State -- had begun
negotiations with the GON. "We are discussing with them, but
it is all informal." She said the GON had assured them the
amnesty was "real,8 given concerns they expressed for their
safety. Center for Environment, Human Rights, and
Development (CEHRD) representative Patrick Naagbanton told
Pol-Mil Officer that Tompolo stood ready to surrender because
of pressure from within his organization after &significant
losses8 from JTF attacks in May on his base at Camp Five.

--------------

ABUJA 00001669 002 OF 003


TOMPOLO PUBLICLY QUESTIONS AMNESTY
--------------


5. (SBU) Even while negotiating with the GON, Tompolo
publicly questioned the sincerity of the amnesty program via
an open letter to President Yar,Adua in a full-page
advertisement in the August 31 &Vanguard8 newspaper,
placing &99 percent8 of the blame for kidnappings,
abductions, and hostage-takings on federal and state
politicians. &Categorically, politicians, political and
commercial crime merchants all over the country are the
architects" of such offenses, declared Tompolo. He demanded
JTF withdrawal from the Niger Delta, accusing the military
force of &coup plotting8 and &wasting8 regional
resources. He condemned Niger River dredging as an &attack
on our existence and identity8 and decried alleged
inequities in recent deals with multinational companies.

--------------
ASARI UNLIKELY TO ACCEPT AMNESTY
--------------


6. (SBU) According to the media, NDPVF co-founder Dokubo
Asari appeared dissatisfied with terms of the amnesty plan.
Based in Rivers and Bayelsa States, Asari had started NDPVF
with Ateke Tom, but had split from him over financial
differences. The GON recently released him after jailing him
for treason.

--------------
MIXED REVIEWS THUS FAR
--------------


7. (C) We continue to hear mixed reviews about the ongoing
amnesty program. British High Commission Head of Chancery
Kate Airey evinced cautious optimism to PolCouns September 3,
remarking that &something is better than nothing.8 Her
Government, she said, wanted the process to work and has
supplied technical experts on rehabilitation. If the program
is judged credible, then she hoped the international
community would support it, particularly after pressing the
GON for years to implement amnesty. She expressed hope that
the process amounted to more than just a &Nigerian solution
to a Nigerian problem8 limited to pay-offs to militants.


8. (C) In contrast, Mexican Embassy DCM Miguel Guerero Lechon
opined to PolCouns and PolOff September 8 that, from
Mexico,s experience, the GON approach to amnesty "will not
work." He noted that his Government had negotiated for years
with &Zapatista8 militants, who like their Niger Delta
counter-parts, had agitated for more equitable sharing of oil
wealth in Chiapas state. Eventually, this movement faded
away, however, after the Mexican Government invested in the
needs of indigenous groups in Chiapas, providing them with
modern comforts while respecting their cultural traditions.
He noted plans for officials from three Niger Delta states to
visit Chiapas by November to learn from Mexico's experience
in dealing with militants. The Chiapas Government, Guerrero
said, would provide accommodations for the Nigerians, who
would pay for their air travel to Mexico.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) The scorecard of well-known militants who have cashed
out via amnesty is impressive, but there's no reason to
believe that these militants can or are even trying to bring
their followers along with them. With decisive military
force probably not a realistic option, and in the absence of
a Chiapas-like community development strategy, it seems
likely that a new generation of militant leaders would be
ready to step forward in what should remain a very lucrative
undertaking. END COMMENT.


10. (U) Embassy cleared this telegram with Consulate General
Lagos.

ABUJA 00001669 003 OF 003



MCCULLOUGH