NIGERIA: JOS REMAINS CALM AS LOCAL GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000148

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA
DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KIRF ASEC NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: JOS REMAINS CALM AS LOCAL GOVERNMENT
CHAIRMEN SWORN IN; INVESTIGATIONS UNDERWAY OVER VIOLENCE

REF: A. 08 ABUJA 2377

B. 08 ABUJA 2328 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b
& d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On January 21, Plateau State Governor Jonah
Jang swore in the controversial 17 Local Government Area
(LGA) chairmen whose November 27, 2008 elections were marred
by alleged rigging that sparked a surge of violence in Jos
resulting in over 300 deaths (ref B). Despite concerns from
some quarters of renewed violence, the swearing-in occurred
without incident as the city continues to operate under
military rule with a strictly enforced curfew from 7pm to
6am. The atmosphere in Jos remains tense as many still fear
renewed violence once the military departs. Five separate
panels of inquiry have been established to investigate the
Jos violence. President Yar'Adua, the House of
Representatives, the Senate, Plateau State Governor Jonah
Jang, and the Plateau State House of Assembly have all
announced the creation of separate panels. In what appears
to be a power struggle between federal and state governments,
Jang filed a motion with the Supreme Court asking for an
injunction against President Yar'Adua's panel on grounds that
the federal government does not have the authority to
investigate state matters. Jang also demanded that the
National Assembly panels cease and desist on the same
grounds. Suspicions about the motives behind these separate
investigations have created a stand-off on all sides.
Nigeria has a track record of ignoring the results of
previous panels of inquiry into outbreaks of sectarian
violence in Plateau state (including in 2004, 2001, 1997 and
1994); given that these five panels may very well reach five
different conclusions, there is every possibility that this
will happen again. END SUMMARY.

LGA CHAIRMEN SWORN IN; FEARS OF VIOLENCE REMAIN
-------------- --

2. (C) According to Embassy contacts and local staff, the
atmosphere in Jos remains tense and the city remains under
martial law with a strictly enforced curfew. Many believe
additional violence is inevitable because the root problems
of indigene versus settler tension and a flawed electoral
process have not been addressed. On January 21, Governor
Jang swore in the 17 Local Government Chairmen whose election
sparked the original outbreak of violence. Despite fears
that the swearing in would spark renewed violence, as of
early January 26 no disturbances were reported. Area
residents, however, remain concerned that when the military
moves out, acts of retribution will begin, sparking violence
which could easily spread to other areas of the country.

YAR'ADUA PANEL
--------------

3. (U) On December 25, 2008, President Yar'Adua established
an eight-person Administrative Panel of Inquiry and appointed
retired Major-General Emmanuel Abisoye, a Christian Yoruba
from Kwara State, as the Chairman. Other members of the
panel include: Festus Okoye, a human rights lawyer;
Ambassador Godfrey B. Preware, former Director-General of the
National Intelligence Agency from 1998-1999; Ambassador Fatai
Sa'ad Abubakar; and Musa Shafi'l, a Director in the
Presidency who was selected Secretary of the Committee. The
Nigeria Police Force, State Security Services, and Nigerian
Armed Forces were also asked to submit one nominee each to
participate in the panel. In response to the federal
government's action, Plateau State Governor Jang immediately
filed suit with the Supreme Court, contending that the
President did not have the authority to investigate state
affairs. Jang also sought an injunction to force the panel
to cease proceedings, but no ruling has been issued by the
Supreme Court to date. A spokesman for President Yar'Adua
stressed to the media that the panel was not a judicial panel
of inquiry, which had the power to deliver punishment; but
rather a fact-finding panel tasked with producing a report on
the root cause of the problem and provide guidance on how to
avert similar incidents in the future. Despite Yar'Adua's
appointment of a Christian chairman to the panel, there were

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claims of bias from some Christians in the area. According
to media reports, the Northern Christian Elders Forum (NOCEF)
accused Yar'Adua of taking sides with the Muslims and
shielding the perpetrators of the violence.


4. (C) Much of the criticism from Plateau residents is
focused on panel Chairman Abisoye himself. In 1976, Abisoye
headed the military tribunal into the Dimka uprising in which
then Head of State Murtala Mohammed was murdered. Abisoye
was responsible for the conviction, and in some cases
execution, of numerous soldiers allegedly involved with the
violent coup - a majority of whom were from Plateau State.
Many in Plateau State still harbor resentment towards
Abisoye, and are suspicious about his involvement in the
panel.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PANEL
--------------

5. (U) On December 30, 2008, the House of Representatives
constituted an eight-member Ad-Hoc Committee to investigate
the Jos crisis. Isa Idris Umaru (People's Democratic Party
(PDP),Kaduna) was selected as chairman. Other members
include: Chile Igbahuwa (PDP - Benue),Adefolabi Adeole
Morfdeen (Action Congress - Lagos),Darlington Okereke (PDP -
Ebonyi),Abdule Ningi (PDP - Bauchi),Abolagba Johnson
Aigbudu (PDP - Edo) , Sani Saleh Minjibir (All Nigeria
People's Party - Kano),and Abdullahi Garba Bagudo (PDP -
Kebbi). On January 5, the House Committee began six days of
public hearings in Jos where they heard testimony from the
general public. On January 6, Plateau State Attorney General
Edward Pwajok sent a letter to the House Committee arguing
that the National Assembly did not have the authority to
investigate a state matter, and calling on the House to cease
its investigation immediately. The Committee responded with
a letter of its own, noting that Sections 4, 88, and 89 of
the 1999 Constitution gave the Assembly the power to
establish committees and investigate anything it wants; the
House Committee continued with its hearings. Some Christian
groups accused the House Committee of bias because it was
comprised of five Muslims and three Christians, which the
groups maintained did not accurately represent the majority
Christian population in Plateau State.

GOVERNOR JANG'S PANEL
--------------

6. (U) On December 30, shortly after filing his suit against
the President, Governor Jang established a state-level
judicial panel headed by Prince Bola Ajibola, a Muslim Yoruba
from Ogun State. Ajibola was a former Attorney General under
General Ibrahim Babangida and one-time Judge at the
International Court of Justice at The Hague. Other members
of Jang's panel include: Regina Abang, Daniel Gopet, A.T.
Yaya, retired Assistant Commissioner of Police Napoleon
Timkat, and M.T. Falle as Secretary for the Committee.
According to media reports, many local youth groups refused
to participate in the state-led investigation, suggesting
lack of objectivity due to the state government's involvement
in the violence. Some praised Jang's choice of a Muslim as
chairman, while others were quick to point out that while
Ajibola is Muslim, he is not Hausa/Fulani, which is the
predominant ethnic group of Jos Muslims.

JANG AND YAR'ADUA FACE OFF
--------------

7. (C) As previously reported, during a December 4 meeting,
Governor Jang informed Ambassador that he met with President
Yar'Adua about the Jos crisis immediately preceding his
arrival at Ambassador's residence (ref A). Jang maintained
that he and President Yar'Adua agreed to establish a joint
inquiry into the root causes of the violence. Some reports
suggested President Yar'Adua initiated his own panel because
he grew impatient waiting for Jang to begin the
investigation, especially given the international attention
the incident received. The governor was reportedly angered
that high-level delegations the President sent to Jos never
called on him, a sign of disrespect in a protocol-sensitive
country. When Jang, according to media reports, read about
the President's panel in the newspaper, he decided he would

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strike back by challenging the President before the Supreme
Court, and by establishing his own investigative team.


8. (C) Public opinion on the face-off between Yar'Adua and
Jang is split. Based on media reports, some believe Yar'Adua
overstepped his authority by establishing a panel without
state level coordination. Others argue that the federal
government needed to step in because Jang was seen as
complicit in causing the violence, given his decision to push
ahead with the elections against advice (Ref B),leading to
strong suspicion that the state-level panel would not be
objective. Some suggest that the stand-off has now become a
personal feud between Yar'Adua, a Fulani, and Jang, a member
of the indigenous Berom tribe of Plateau State. Most agree,
however, that neither panel is likely to produce an objective
report.


9. (C) COMMENT: The establishment of these numerous inquiry
panels seems more about a show of power, mutual suspicion,
and self-protection than about finding a solution to the
problems that started the violence. We are not optimistic
that any of the panels will produce objective, substantive
reports or that any action will be taken to address the heart
of the problem: transparent access to political power despite
religion, ethnicity, or party affiliation. Tensions remain
high in Plateau; we will watch for signs of renewed violence.
END COMMENT.


10. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
SANDERS