Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ABUJA1411
2009-08-03 12:54:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S VISIT TO NIGERIA

Tags:  OVIP PREL PGOV ECON NI 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001411 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2019
TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV ECON NI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S VISIT TO NIGERIA

Classified By: Ambassador Robin R. Sanders for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

A Problematic Picture
- - - - - - - - - - -

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001411

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2019
TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV ECON NI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S VISIT TO NIGERIA

Classified By: Ambassador Robin R. Sanders for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

A Problematic Picture
- - - - - - - - - - -


1. (C) Over two years in to President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua's
administration, the GON is facing serious and growing
problems on several fronts. While the President's election
was judged largely fraudulent, his assumption of office was
at least accepted by most Nigerians, and welcomed by many.
His promise in his inaugural address of a broad program of
reform focusing on deliverable benefits to ordinary people
(the "Seven Point Agenda": electricity generation, food
security, job creation, road construction, land reform,
education and a restoration of security in the Niger Delta)
was applauded both domestically and internationally.


2. (C/NF) There has, however, been little or no progress on
any of these areas for promised reform, and several have seen
a marked deterioration, particularly electricity generation.
Moreover, while Yar'Adua also promised electoral reform in
his inaugural speech, there is little or no chance of this
being realized prior to the next elections scheduled for

2011. The report of the Electoral Reform Committee (ERC)
took 20 months to produce, but only a few weeks for a Cabinet
committee (headed by the execrable and notoriously venal
Attorney General Aondoakaa) to gut. The remnants of the
ERC's recommendations have been forwarded to the National
Assembly, but the odds of anything of significance emerging
seem long. The recent Ekiti State gubernatorial by-election,
in which the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP),with the
apparent support of the top leadership of the GON, blatantly
rigged the polls in order to assure victory shows where many
in the government and ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP)
are coming from.


3. (C) The prospects for progress on corruption, the area
singled out by most observers as being at the heart of
Nigeria's problems, also seem remote. The modest, if
laudable, progress made by the EFCC under Chairman Ribadu
largely ended with his removal and replacement. The EFCC
continues to cooperate with us on money laundering and other

suspicious financial transactions, but its own prosecutions
(as well as assistance to other nations such as the UK) of
Nigerian "big fish" have virtually ceased. The closeness of
some of the most notable corrupt figures to senior Presidency
officials (former Governor Ibori reportedly stays at Villa
guest facilities when in Abuja) is the clearest indicator
that progress in the fight against corruption appears
unlikely.


4. (C) The decline in both oil production and price have had
a significant impact on the government's revenue over the
past year. The recent upsurge in fighting in the Niger
Delta, the main cause of the fall in production, has also
translated to an increase in overall insecurity, with the
GON's Joint Task Force (JTF) being blamed for some
"collateral damage" against civilians, and various
"militant" groups being implicated in revenge attacks against
oil facilities. Kidnappings of civilians, including
expatriates, have been perpetrated by both "militants" and
criminals.


5. (C) In the north, poverty and poor governance have
facilitated extremist recruitment of marginalized groups,
specifically disaffected youth. From July 26-29, violent
clashes erupted in four northern states after supporters of
an Islamic extremist group, &Boko Haram8 launched a
coordinated four-state assault on police stations and other
government facilities. The group states it opposes western
education models but has not targeted western nationals or
interests. Extremist support remains small and Nigeria,s
Islamic leaders strongly condemned the attacks.

Policy Positives
- - - - - - - - -


6. (SBU) The news, however, is not all negative, and some
positive signs stand out. Nigeria's promotion by G/TIP to
Category 1 (countries which are doing the right things to
fight human trafficking) thanks to the hard work of the
Nigerian Agency for the Prevention of Trafficking in Persons

ABUJA 00001411 002.2 OF 002


(NAPTIP) shows what a GON law enforcement agency can do with
the right leadership and commitment. The recent decision by
the Attorney General and NDLEA to allow us to second a
retired DEA Agent to advise it on operational matters in the
fight against drug trafficking is also a sign of improving
cooperation. We have also made some modest progress in some
of the long-standing extradition cases of interest to the
USG.
(SBU) Economically, we have been working with the GON to
address key economic challenges across the board, which
translated into the elimination of some import bans and lower
tariffs, bringing down the cost of doing business, and
reducing incentives for smuggling. We have also helped to
solve regulatory and policy questions to allow increased
electricity supplies, boost agricultural production and
assist in the establishment of reliable regional and
international markets, including through AGOA production. In
addition, we have worked toward a healthy restructuring of
the oil and gas sector, and toward improving aviation safety
and security.


7. (SBU) On the military side, we have made real progress on
maritime security, with the GON permitting the first ship
visit in many years, and allowing the installation of two
RMAC radar sites. With ACOTA training, Nigerian troops have
continued to participate in peacekeeping operations in Darfur
and Liberia, and the GON has made clear its continuing
interest in working with ECOWAS to promote regional security
where needed. We are also helping to stand up a
counter-terrorism unit in the military.


8. (U) Underpinning all these areas of progress is the
continuing strongly positive view of most Nigerians toward
both the USG and the American people. While not all Nigerian
officials (including some within the Villa and rulin g PDP)
share this view, they are distinctly in the minority.
Nigerians are very sensitive to how they are seen by
Americans, and crave our approbation. They also want to be
seen and acknowledged (especially by us) as the main power,
economically, politically, militarily and diplomatically in
this region.

Policy Challenges
- - - - - - - - -


9. (C) We do not propose to review here the various scenarios
which have already been examined that might result should the
President die or become too ill to serve, and should various
forces challenge or block the Vice President's succession,
but it is also important to keep our eye on what we are doing
to mitigate or change the possibility of some of the negative
scenarios in spite of the President's health struggles, or
his possible demise. As we look ahead toward the next two
years, we believe we should intensify our efforts to move the
GON back onto a progressive path on the issues of democracy
(especially electoral reform) and governance (especially the
fight against grand corruption),encourage economic reforms
that deliver benefits to ordinary Nigerians, particularly in
the fields of electricity generation and agriculture, help
fix problematic petroleum legislation, continue the fight
against HIV/AIDS, malaria and polio, and be helpful in any
way we can in addressing the problems of the Niger Delta.


10. (SBU) All of our efforts depend on having the resources
to maintain our people (see attached "Management Issues"
paper) in this difficult environment. The exorbitant cost of
rental properties (most of which are poorly constructed and
require major upgrades),and the shortage of both FTE and LES
staff to manage our programs and resources all place
significant limitations on the work which lies ahead.


11. (U) This cable has been coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
SANDERS