NIGER DELTA AMNESTY OFFER AND "ACCEPTANCE": LESS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001102

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA
BAGHDAD FOR DMCCULLOUGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NIGER DELTA AMNESTY OFFER AND "ACCEPTANCE": LESS
THAN MEETS THE EYE

REF: A. ABUJA 601

B. ABUJA 493

C. ABUJA 586

D. LAGOS 190

E. LAGOS 191

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: A lawyer for Niger Delta "militant" leader
Ateke Tom announced on June 15 that Tom was prepared to
accept President Umaru Yar'Adua's amnesty offer (first made
on April 2). Yar'Adua reacted positively to the statement,
and offered to provide within a week details of how the
amnesty would work and what rehabilitation assistance it
would include (FYI: the GON has been promising these details
since early April, but has not so far delivered. End FYI).
In media interviews June 16, Tom appeared to back away from
his alleged acceptance, saying that the GON would first have
to end its current offensive against the "militants" and
disband the military and police Joint Task Force (JTF) which
has been waging it, before he would be willing even to hold
talks with the government about amnesty. Our sense is that
there is less to this exchange than meets the eye. End
Summary.

AMNESTY OFFER "ACCEPTED"
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2. (U) On June 15, the lawyer for "militant" leader Ateke Tom
told journalists that Tom and his Niger Delta Vigilante
Movement were prepared to hand over their weapons "the moment
the modalities for the grant of amnesty are completed and
announced by the Federal Government." The lawyer called for
the GON to put "the necessary framework, both legal and
otherwise," in place as soon as possible. He added that this
action would be accompanied by the cessation of hostilities
by the Joint Task Force (JTF -- the joint military and police
unit which is conducting the GON's offensive against the
"militants").


3. (SBU) President Yar'Adua reacted positively to the
reported offer. During a press appearance with Sierra Leone
President Ernest Bai Koroma, Yar'Adua said he was "highly
delighted" by the news. In remarks carried on local
broadcast media, he added that he expected the amnesty
committee he had set up back in April to complete
implementation planning before the end of this week. The
plans would include both the procedures which would have to
be followed, and information on rehabilitation assistance for
those accepting the deal. This would include opportunities
for education and employment. He added: "I welcome any
leader and all its members who are ready to accept the
granting of amnesty by government and I assure them that
within this week, latest early next week, the terms will be
made public."


4. (C) Villa officials later told journalists on background
that Yar'Adua was calling a meeting for June 18 to discuss
the terms of the amnesty with a key group of senior
officials. According to our Villa contacts, those invited to
the meeting include VP Jonathan, Senate President Mark, House
Speaker Bankole, the governors of five Delta states (Bayelsa,
Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom and Ondo),Defense Minister
Mustapha, Interior Minister Abbe, Niber Delta Minister
Ekaette, SGF Yahyale Ahmed, NSA Mukhtar and CDS Air Marshal
Dike. (Comment: More than one observer has pointed out
that, when he first proposed an amnesty back on April 2 (see
ref A),Yar'Adua said he would be announcing the details
"within a week." The delay in doing so likely reflects some
disagreement within the Villa over the issue. End comment.)

OR PERHAPS NOT
- - - - - - - -

5. (SBU) In June 16 interviews in "This Day" newspaper and
broadcast on the BBC, Ateke Tom appeared to back away
substantially from his lawyer's offer of the previous day.

ABUJA 00001102 002 OF 002


Tom insisted that a cessation of the current GON offensive
and the disbandment of the JTF were preconditions before he
would be ready to sit down with the government to discuss the
terms of any amnesty. These discussions would have to reach
satisfactory conclusions on job opportunities for his men
before they would be prepared to lay down their arms. Asked
by "This Day" if he would expect the GON to pay him for any
weapons and ammunition he might surrender, Tom replied in
pidgin to the effect of "Why wouldn't they pay me for the
arms? Do they think I picked them up in the road?" Rivers
State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, who strongly backs the JTF
offensive, immediately had his spokesman issue a statement
declaring that Tom's earlier alleged offer to accept the
amnesty should be "taken with a pinch of salt," alleging that
it was just another of Tom's "antics" to distract attention
from what he was actually doing.

COMMENT
- - - -

6. (C) In our view, several outside observers, including
Stephen Davis who spoke at the same June 15 CSIS event in
Washington addressed by Foreign Minister Maduekwe, have
attempted to make more of Ateke Tom's "offer," and Yar'Adua's
acceptance, than meets the eye. Some international media
have tried to jump on the same bandwagon. President Yar'Adua
first mooted the idea of an amnesty back on April 2 in a
meeting with senior leaders of the ruling People's Democratic
Party (PDP),adding that the offer would include plans to
rehabilitate "militants" who were prepared to lay down their
arms, and help for them to reintegrate into society. He
promised that the details of the offer "within a week," but
failed to do so. After the JTF began its current offensive
in mid-May, Yar'Adua reiterated his offer, but again failed
to provide details of how the amnesty would work and what
sort of rehabilitation it would include.


7. (S/NF) While we believe Yar'Adua is sincere about offering
some sort of amnesty, there appear to be at least some within
the military and the Villa who are pushing back against the
idea. We will be watching closely to see if the June 18
meeting leads to any real progress toward announcing a plan.
Villa contacts have been reluctant to discuss the content of
the meeting, though the Special Assistant to one of those
attending claimed that one factor in the discussions would be
documents (seized by the JTF during a raid on "militant"
leader Tompolo's camp) which apparently implicate "PDP
stalwarts in the region." Interestingly, the five governors
included in the meeting are all PDP, while the opposition
governor of Edo state is excluded. As for Ateke Tom's
"acceptance" of amnesty, it boils down to only an offer to
talk about amnesty if, inter alia, the JTF stops it current
offensive and is disbanded, obvious non-starters. End
comment.


8. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
SANDERS