NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR AND ELECTORAL REFORM COMMITTEE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000010

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA
DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR AND ELECTORAL REFORM COMMITTEE
CHAIR DISCUSS NEXT STEPS

REF: ABUJA 2405

Classified By: Ambassador Robin Renee Sanders for reasons 1.4. (b & d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador met with the Chairman of the
Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) former Chief Justice
Mohammadu Uwais on December 22. Uwais was not aware of the
Presidency's reaction to the ERC's report on recommendations
to improve Nigeria's flawed electoral processes, as it had
just been presented on December 11 (reftel). The most
controversial recommendations in the report, according to
Uwais, are the allowance of independent candidates, abolition
of all State Independent Electoral Commissions (SIECs),the
introduction of proportional representation, and a wholesale
reorganization of the Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC),including the formation of new regulatory
bodies for political party registration and oversight,
electoral offenses, and constituency delimitation. "Arms
length financing" of INEC (similar to the Judiciary's
appropriations process) was also urged to reduce the
potential for political manipulation. The report's suggested
combination of "first past the post" and proportional
representation in the National Assembly, would result in 108
additional seats in the House of Representatives. Yet to be
determined is whether the political will to reform the
electoral system truly exists and will be acted upon, beyond
creating more bureaucracy and expanding existing
institutions. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) Ambassador met with the Chairman of ERC former Chief
Justice Mohammadu Uwais on December 22 to discuss the ERC
Report released December 11. The report calls for a
wholesale reorganization of INEC, with the creation of a
Political Parties Registration and Regulatory Commission, an
Electoral Offenses Commission and a Constituency Delimitation
Commission. It recommends that INEC limit its focus to
"procedural issues," while most other matters -- e.g. voter
education, party oversight, and information dissemination --
would fall to the new Commissions, which would have
independent oversight structures outside of INEC's purview.
For example, the Political Parties Registration and
Regulatory Commission would report to the Senate and be
overseen by the Auditor-General of the Federation. It would
be responsible for the monitoring of primary elections within
the various political parties. This body would also be
responsible for registering the various non-governmental
organizations involved in electoral matters, and supposedly
overseeing the activities of civil society groups in the area
of democracy and good governance. The report includes draft
legislation to amend the Electoral Act, which would be
required to create the proposed Political Parties
Registration and Regulatory Commission and Electoral Offenses
Commission. Members serving on these new commissions would
be nominated via a consultative process identical to that
proffered for nominees to INEC. The elimination of the SIECs
would require a constitutional amendment.


3. (U) The report recommended that INEC Commissioners be
nominated by the National Judicial Council (which includes
members of the Nigerian Bar Association, labor unions, civil
society and women's organizations); nominees would then be
forwarded to the Council of State (of which the President is
a member),which would select one of the nominees and send
him or her to the Senate for confirmation. This is meant to
lessen the political influence of the executive over the
supposedly independent Commission, and increase the
involvement of NGO stakeholders in the process. INEC would
also gain greater independence via the appropriations
process. "Arms length financing" of it (similar to that of
the Judiciary) would complement the new nomination process
and further decrease the potential for political
manipulation. INEC would submit a budget proposal to the NASS
which would then vote on legislation including INEC budgetary
allocations as a first-line charge. The INEC Chairman would
report to the Senate, and all Commissioners would serve
five-year terms.


4. (C) Uwais also noted that the report calls for the

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establishment of a quasi-governmental think-tank to be named
the Center for Democratic Studies. The Ambassador questioned
the need for yet another such institution given the fine work
done by the National Democratic Institute, International
Republican Institute and other civil society groups with
regards to voter education and promoting good governance.
(Comment: Post speculates that perhaps Uwais was simply
angling for his own think tank via creation of the proposed
Center. End Comment.)


5. (SBU) Uwais said the ERC members also recommended allowing
independent candidates to run for public office without
declaring a party affiliation, theoretically allowing for
more grass roots democracy. According to Uwais any
individual wishing to run for office will simply need a
minimum of ten voter signatures from each ward in the state
or country, depending on whether the office sought is a state
or national office. In addition, the report recommended the
introduction of some positions based on proportional
representation to moderate what has been described as the "do
or die" stakes of Nigerian elections. Uwais maintained that
under such a system women and the disabled would be much
better represented. However, in order to realize partial
proportional representation, 108 seats would be added to the
360 current members of the National Assembly (NASS). The
Ambassador noted that mixed electoral systems were quite
complicated and questioned the efficiency of a 468 member
NASS vis-a-vis the current 360 representative chamber. In
response to concerns about efficiency in general, Uwais noted
that the ERC report also recommends streamlining the number
of judges on election tribunal panels from five to three, in
order to free up judges to hear other cases and expedite the
judicial process.

Way Forward
===========


6. (C) Uwais broached with the Ambassador the idea of USG
funding for the printing and distribution of copies of the
ERC report. Ambassador suggested making the report available
to all online would both save money and increase access.
Uwais urged the USG to support the recommendations in the
report, and noted that the GON will set up a committee to
review the report and eventually issue a white paper.
According to Uwais, it was "too early to tell" how the USG or
civil society could best advance the cause of meaningful
electoral reform in light of the report and its
recommendations.


7. (C) COMMENT: The report of the ERC, like other committee
reports, will only produce effective change if the political
will to reform the electoral system is present at both the
highest and broadest levels. As an illustration of the
daunting nature of electoral reform in Nigeria, a
constitutional amendment, such as that to dissolve the 36
SIECs, must pass with a two-thirds majority in at least
two-thirds of the various state assemblies, and by the same
margin in both chambers of the NASS. This would require
approximately 800 elected officials to vote against the
system that brought them to power, and which in the majority
of cases keeps them there. The question remains whether
there exists a broad enough base of political will to truly
reform the electoral system. We also note that the principle
criticisms of the 2007 elections were not a result of the
Constitution or the Electoral Act, but rather of their lack
of implementation by the Nigerian political class. Despite
these criticisms, however, we note that efforts to involve
the Nigerian Bar Association and civil society in the
selection processes for the various commissioners are a step
in the right direction. END COMMENT.


8. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
Piascik