STRONG WORDS IN PRIVATE FROM MBZ AT IDEX -- BASHES IRAN,

S E C R E T ABU DHABI 000193


NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2019
TAGS: PREL PTER PARM MOPS MASS IR QA RU AE
SUBJECT: STRONG WORDS IN PRIVATE FROM MBZ AT IDEX -- BASHES IRAN,
QATAR, RUSSIA

REF: (A) ABU DHABI 174
(B) STATE 14577



1. (S/NF) Summary: On the margins of Abu Dhabi's largest defense
exhibition (IDEX),Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ)
engaged visiting US dignitaries with strident remarks about Iran and
Qatar's dangerous ties to extremist elements (including Iran and the
Muslim Brotherhood). He stated flatly that Qatar is allied with the
Brotherhood (posited as the UAEG's mortal enemy) and clearly betrayed
the GCC by inviting Iran to the January "Arab" summit. MbZ cited his
own desire to defend his country as a counterpoint to extremists'
loyalty to their "movement" as opposed to their constituent
population. He expressed skepticism about the ability of the GCC to
cooperate in the military sphere, and urged the US to work with
individual countries bilaterally as a way of moving the process
forward. Praising the UAE Air Force in ensuring national defense, he
said his officers had instructions to find and be ready to stamp out
Iranian missiles. He was morbidly confident that Israel would
attempt a military strike on Iran this year, likely provoking Tehran
to lash out at proximate targets like the UAE (identified as a
partner of Israel's U.S. ally). He was also harsh on Russia's role
in the region, as it followed its hero (Putin) in citing its villain
(America) as the source of its woes. He predicted unhelpful
cooperation between Moscow and Tehran. Closing the meeting on a more
upbeat note, MbZ was pleased with the assurance that the U.S. Navy
was in the Gulf and hoped it would remain here for generations. End
summary.


2. (C) During the bi-annual International Defence Exhibition 2009
(IDEX) held in Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Zayed
al Nahyan (MbZ) met with the official US Delegation, US Ambassador
Richard Olson, US Defense Attache colonel Bret Rider and Chief US
Liaison Office Colonel David Sprague on site at IDEX. Key members of
the US delegation consisted of VADM William Gortney (CDR NAVCENT),
Mr. Keith Webster (DASA/DE&C),Ms. Beth McCormick (Dep Dir DSCA),BG
Genaro Dellerocco (USA PEO Missiles & Space),BG Michael Terry (CDR
USASAC),and RDML Steven Voetsch (A/SECNAV/IP). The discussions were
broad-ranging but typically centered on, or arose in conjunction
with, naval operations in the Arabian Gulf. As is usually the case,
Iran was the true center of the discussion.

Qatar aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood
--------------


3. (S/NF) Perhaps the most revealing part of the discussion was on
the subject of Qatar, as it relates to Iran. MbZ asked note-takers
on both sides to stop writing and to keep his comments off the record
as he stated that Qatar is "part of the Muslim Brotherhood." He
encouraged the US to review the employees of Al Jazeera and predicted
we'd find 90% of the staff affiliated with the Brotherhood. When
Qatar invited Iran to the Arab League meeting (January 16),MbZ saw
that as a betrayal of the first caliber. He stated he knows Hamid
bin Khalifa and Hamid bin Jasim well and he could not understand why
they would betray fellow Arabs unless they were beholden to the
Muslim Brothers. He cited as proof of Qatari perfidy that Doha gave
Hamas and Hizballah $930 million. He asked rhetorically why else
would an Arab leader support movements like this unless they were
part of the movement.


4. (S/NF) In a further example linking Iran and Qatar, MbZ told the
story of the Moroccan Foreign Minister who received a call from Iran.
The FM was directed (by Iran) to work with Doha and agree with what
they propose. The FM told the Iranian that he would listen to his
boss, the King of Morocco, and not a Persian who had no say in the
matter. (Comment: the real point of the story was to illustrate the
inroads that Iran has already made into the Arab League thanks to
Qatar. End comment.)


5. (S/NF) The discussion on Qatar led to a broader MbZ condemnation
of the Muslim Brotherhood movement and its affect on the region.
(Being labeled a Muslim Brother is about the worst epithet possible
in MBZ vocabulary.) He sees Iranian influence in the Brotherhood
very clearly as both a way to agitate the Arab populace and render
the traditional leaders of Arab society impotent. MbZ spoke of Hamas
and Hizballah in the same breath and grouped them with UBL as
transnational threats posing as national movements. He used the
story of Khalid Mishal's visit to Egypt as the most recent example of
nefarious intent. Mishal was invited on an official visit by
President Hosni Mubarak, including arrangements for housing Mishal in
the fashion he accords national leaders. Mishal reportedly rejected
the offer and told Mubarak that he would stay with "his boss," the
leader of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood and avowed enemy of
Mubarak. "Why was the leader of a Palestinian faction calling the
leader of an Egyptian terrorist organization his boss?" Borders and
nations do not matter to these people, said MbZ, just the movement.
On the other hand, the UAE as a nation is very important to MbZ and
he sees it as his duty to maintain its integrity.

GCC cohesion a myth
--------------


6. (S) Admiral Gortney talked of military coalitions and
multinational exercises as a way to prepare for unforeseen
eventualities, especially as regards Iran. MbZ was very quick to
respond that he had tried to forge GCC cohesion for "27 years" and
failed. "I am not a believer in grouping the GCC together...ask us
who wants to be involved and we will step forward, the others will
take a step back." "Encourage those of us who wish to lead to lead
and we will; sooner or later the others will step forward but only
when it is necessary." The message was very clear: the UAE should be
should be dealt with bilaterally by the US, not as a constituent part
of the GCC or Arab world. Additionally, he suggested the US is
wasting its time trying to get the other members of the GCC to
cooperate in the common interest, when that is not the primary
motivation of most GCC states. Admiral Gortney thanked MbZ for the
UAE Navy's plans to command CTF 152 later this year. This is a clear
indication the UAE will lead when given the opportunity. The UAE's
leadership of the CTF will convince those who are not committed to
the coalition to join and support this key effort in the Arabian
Gulf.

Extremists prey on young minds prone to fantasy
-------------- --


7. (C) MbZ stated the UAE has two enemies, Iran and terrorism. It
is important to him that when one side of a partnership has
information on either of these threats they must share it for the
common good of both. He told the story of his son who was becoming
interested in the teachings of Muslim fundamentalists; he sent his
son on a humanitarian mission to Ethiopia but not with the Red
Crescent, rather with the Red Cross. His son returned from the
mission with his vision of the west intact and in fact corrected. He
was astonished that the Christians with the Red Cross were giving
food and support to anyone who needed the support, not just to
Christians. His son had only heard the stories of the west through
the lens of Al Jazeera and others similarly aligned. In a message
often heard from MbZ he stressed that no true religion tells anyone
to kill innocents. No true religion tells anyone to be a suicide
bomber. The fantasy of being a martyr for Islam and riding a golden
chariot to heaven to live in a 7-star hotel to be waited on by 70
virgins is just that, a fantasy exploited by extremists.

Strengthening defenses -- against Iran's missiles
-------------- --------------


8. (S/NF) MbZ spoke proudly of his Air Force and its role in the
nation's defense. He stated "this is the Middle East and we will do
what we need to do...when the Iranians fire their missiles we will go
after them and kill them." He said he feels the worst thing he can
do as a leader is to allow the Iranians to attack his people and then
to have no answer when young Emiratis ask "what are you going to do?"
He stated with some certainty this is the year the Israelis will
attack Iran. He believes Iran will have two possible courses of
action; sit back and do nothing, and have the world so thoroughly
condemn the actions of Israel that Iran becomes the hero for not
responding to an "unprovoked" attack. MbZ feels the more likely
Iranian reaction to an Israeli attack would be to let loose its
missiles on the allies of those who support Israel (i.e., close
partners of the U.S.). He sees the UAE at the top of the Iranian
target list. MbZ told Admiral Gortney that he has directed his Armed
Forces Chief of Staff (COS) to find the missiles now and draw up
plans to kill them. The COS was directed to work with the Americans
so the UAE's jets have the corridors and experience needed to make
the kill. (Note: Septel reports the COS's appeal for urgent
deployment of Patriot batteries in the UAE. End note.)

Down on Russia
--------------


9. (S/NF) After Ambassador delivered ref B points, MbZ spoke of the
destabilizing effect of the Russians particularly in light of the
purported S-300 missile sale to Iran. He said Russians are very
difficult to convince of anything. Russians need two things, a hero
and a villain. They now have a hero in Putin and they are once again
making America the villain. MbZ recalled that Putin announced in
2008 that Russia had huge financial reserves and would not suffer
under the economic collapse, but now the reserves are gone. The
Russian "hero" tells his people daily that America is the reason for
the high price of bread in Moscow, America is the reason for the low
price of oil, etc. MbZ said 2009 will be a very bad year for Russia,
whose people will turn to their hero more and more. He thinks we
need to control the Russians but said he is not well versed in
dealing with Russia -- America knows how to deal with Russia from
past experience and America must deal with Russia now. Russia will
be the biggest winner of any instability in the Gulf; Iran will use
Russia to re-build after Israel attacks. MbZ asked Ambassador for
his assessment of Russian intentions, Ambassador described the
challenges the US had faced in dealing with Russia since Putin's 2007
speech at the Munich Security Conference.

Upbeat on the U.S. Naval presence
--------------


10. (C) The meeting ended as it started, with MbZ as the gracious
and upbeat host wishing his guests well and wishing American business
the greatest successes during IDEX. His mood was relaxed and
confident and looking to the future. When Admiral Gortney noted that
the US Navy has been here in the Gulf for 60 years, MbZ commented
that he's been hearing that for over 40 years and his fondest hope is
that he continues to hear that for 40 more -- and that his children
will hear the same message from America.


11. (SBU) Vice Admiral William Gortney, Commander NAVCENT, cleared
this cable prior to its transmission.

OLSON