SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT AND ATTENDANCE AT THE 2009 DUBAI

S E C R E T ABU DHABI 001067

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2019
TAGS: PGOVPRELMARRMOPS
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT AND ATTENDANCE AT THE 2009 DUBAI
AIR SHOW

Classified by Ambassador Richard Olson, reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) US Embassy Abu Dhabi and US Consulate General Dubai warmly
welcome your visit to UAE to attend the 2009 Dubai Air Show.





--------------
Air Show Highlights
--------------


2. (U) The Dubai Air Show is the third largest event of its type and
is touted by the UAE as the foremost aerospace event in the Middle
East as well as the fastest growing in the world. The Dubai Air Show
is seen by many as a leading indicator of the health of the aviation
market in the Middle East. German analytic firm Frost and Sullivan
predict defense spending in the Middle East may well exceed $100
billion by 2014 or 11 percent of global arms orders. Dubai is
dedicating over one-third of the exhibition space this year to
defense companies. The show is expected to attract approximately 900
exhibitors from up to 50 countries and host 13 pavilions from
Austria, Belgium, Canada, Florida, France, Germany, Jordan, the
Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine, the UK, and the United States.
To date distinguished visitors are scheduled to visit the air show
representing the GCC, Africa, the Levant, West Asia, India, and
Western nations. Over 1300 journalists are expected.


3. (SBU) Expected high-level UAE participants include: the Air show
host, Ruler of Dubai, UAE Vice President, and Prime Minister,
Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum; the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi,
Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan; President of Dubai Civil Aviation
Authority His Highness Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed al Maktoum; and Chief
of Staff of the UAE Armed Forces, Lt Gen Hamad Mohammed Thani Al
Rumaithi. As in past years, the Air Show provides an excellent
opportunity to expand bilateral military relations, as well as
promote U.S. defense and civil aviation interests.


4. (U) The USAF's F-22 is being advertised as the premier military
aircraft participating in the air show. Other US military aircraft
on display include the F-16, F-15E, C-17, WC-130J, E-8C, and B1B.
The EU will present the Eurofighter, Rafale, and EAD's HAP Tiger
Helicopter. China presents the L-15 jet trainer, and Italy the C-27J
plus the Aermacchi and Alpha jet trainers. Many commercial aircraft
from these and other nations will be on hand as well.

--------------
Escalating Influence
--------------


5. (C) Over the past five years the UAE has emerged as a regional
powerhouse, using its financial clout and diplomatic activism to
expand its influence from North Africa through the Levant to the
Indian Sub-Continent, and indeed globally in financial circles. The
bilateral relationship has been carefully nurtured from a strong
mil-mil base emerging out of the first Gulf war into a much broader
relationship in which the full range of USG Agencies work closely
with Emirati counterparts. Our trade relations have grown (the UAE
is our largest export market in the Middle East region) and although
the UAE, and particularly Dubai, is feeling the pinch of the global
financial crisis, we have not seen an immediate impact in the
security field. Abu Dhabi's oil reserves generally suffice to keep
defense programs on track, although some discretionary construction
projects may be slowed down. In the broader economy, the frenzied
pace of construction which we saw a year ago has slowed considerably.

--------------
UAE and the Region
--------------


6. (S/NF) Iran: The UAE leadership sees Iran as its primary
external threat, and one that is existential in nature. Like the

rest of the international community, the UAE finds the idea of an
Iran with nuclear weapons unacceptable and thinks this eventuality
would lead to nuclear arms race in the Middle East. At least as
worrying to Emiratis is Iran's aspirations for regional hegemony,
which it realizes through terrorist proxies (Hizballah, HAMAS,
possibly underground organizations in the Arab Gulf countries).
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) is skeptical that Iran can be
convinced to end its nuclear weapons program, and is not convinced
that the international community will adopt tough sanctions. In
other words, he sees the logic of war dominating the region, and this
thinking explains his near obsessive efforts to build up his armed
forces and the Critical National Infrastructure Authority (CNIA).


7. (S) Iraq: the UAE was the first GCC Country to cancel Saddam era
debt and to re-establish an embassy. Other GCC nations followed
suit. The country is supportive of Iraqi participation in the GCC+3.
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ) has
met with PM Maliki and is supportive of the US security agreement
with Iraq.


8. (S) Afghanistan: UAE SOF has been quietly deployed as part of
OEF since 2002, and has recently come out publicly concerning
contingency operations (UAE is permitting press coverage emphasizing
a humanitarian mission). The country plans to deploy SOF aviation
components to Afghanistan (4 x AH-64 Apache Longbows, 3 x UH-60
Blackhawks, and 1 x Twin Otter). The Crown Prince views the Afghan
deployment as a way of transforming and hardening his forces, but
also recognizes the political imperative for moderate Arabs to
publicly support the fight against Al-Qaida and the Taliban.
Additionally, Emirati ground forces deployed one Mechanized Infantry
Battalion and a SEEKER 2 UAV to Afghanistan earlier this year to
provide security support for national elections.


9. (C) Pakistan: the UAE has taken a leading role in the Friends of
Pakistan initiative pledging $300 million in assistance at the Tokyo
Conference. The Al Nahyan family had a long-standing relationship
with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, and this has transitioned
to support for her husband, Asif Ali Zardari. Recently the UAE
donated 14 Puma helicopters to Pakistan via third-party transfer.



--------------
Mil-Mil Relations
--------------


10. (S/NF) The UAE provides critical (not publicized) support for
several military component commands in the CENTCOM AOR.
-- Al-Dhafra Air Force Base is the high altitude ISR hub for the AOR,
and supports 50 percent of aerial refueling in the AOR.
-- Dubai and Fujairah ports in the Northern Emirates are the
logistics backbone for the U.S. Fifth Fleet and commercial trade.
Jebel Ali is the major U.S. military liberty port. Fujairah port is
a major trans-shipment hub to support Afghanistan military
operations.
-- Minhad Air Base is a critical hub for Coalition/ISAF partners in
Afghanistan, including the Australians, Dutch, Canadians, Brits and
Kiwis.


11. (S) The UAE is currently reviewing a request by the U.S. to
provide U.S. access to Liwa (Safran) Air Base in support of
contingency operations in Afghanistan. UAE officials have approved
the initiation of a site survey. Additionally, the UAE is
considering hosting the Regional Integrated Air and Missile Defense
Center of Excellence. Initial discussions between AFCENT/CC, Lt Gen
Hostage, and UAEAF Chief of Staff, Maj Gen Sowaidon have been
positive. No decisions have been reached by the country.


12. (C) Security Assistance is a cornerstone of our relationship.
The UAE is a cash customer with FMS sales in excess of $11 billion.
Commercial sales have an equivalent value. An additional $12 billion
of FMS cases are in development with approximately the same number of
commercial sales in the works.

-- The UAE recently purchased nine (9) Patriot batteries, and expects
to move forward on the purchase of THAAD, the first country outside
the US to purchase the system.
-- The major FMS/DCS systems are: Hawk, F-16, Weapons (JDAM,
Hellfire, Maverick, LGB, cluster, HARM, Harpoon),HIMARS, AH-64,
UH-60 M/L, AOC operating system, Patriot, C-130, CH-47, Shared
Early Warning (SEW),CENTRIXS, NVGs, land vehicles, and small arms.
-- The following systems have been requested and are in various
stages of FMS and DCS development: 3 x THAAD, 24 x RQ8 Firescout,
4(+2) x C-17 Globemaster, 12 x C-130J, satellites/imagery, 16 x
CH-47F (4 via DCS),XM-982 Excalibur, XM-1156 PGK, 5000 X GBU-39
Small Diameter Bomb, E-2D Hawkeye, Boeing Wedgetail, AOC system
upgrade, Link-16 integration on all appropriate platforms/ground
facilities, Stinger/Avenger /VMSLP, MRAP, critical national
infrastructure protection, and Head of State missile ASE.
-- The UAE maintains an active exercise schedule with U.S. and other
multi-lateral partners. They participate in 10-12 U.S. sponsored
exercises annually which helps assure interoperability
and builds capability.
-- The coming year will see a significant plus up in U.S. training to
meet UAE defense requirements. An influx of 110 DoD personnel is
anticipated to support installation and training of FMS systems to
include Patriot, THAAD, and HIMARS.
-- A new lease at Piers 60-61 in Jebel Ali was concluded 4 Sep.
Lease includes fixed 5-year provision for first phase and optional
4-year follow-on phase. The real estate involved is a prime corner
of the Jebel Ali port and keeps USN interests in adjacent areas.

--------------
Outstanding Opportunity
for Pol Mil and Mil-to-Mil
Relations
--------------


13. (C) The Dubai Air Show is one of the premier events in the
Middle East and provides US leaders with the opportunity to interact
with numerous foreign senior defense officers, government officials,
and industry chiefs. This activity is the capstone to several other
major events occurring in conjunction with the air show and includes
the Middle East Air Symposium, The Dubai International Air Chiefs
Conference, and the Middle East Air Forces Coalition Safety
Conference. In all it will make for a challenging but extremely
productive week. Above all, these activities highlight the ever
increasing role and growing influence of the UAE within the region.
As in the past, we anticipate the Dubai Air Show will provide an
outstanding forum to champion U.S. bilateral relations and to
showcase defense equipment. We look forward to seeing you there.

OLSON