YOUTH VIOLENCE FEARED DURING ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000687


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI IV
SUBJECT: YOUTH VIOLENCE FEARED DURING ELECTIONS

REF: ABIDJAN 675

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLECON COUNSELOR MARY TOWNSWICK
FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: International NGOs working on election
issues, as well as Ivoirian civil society institutions are
concerned about the potential for violence in the run up to
elections, particularly among impoverished and unemployed
youth, who have attached their economic hopes to their
respective candidates. They recommend sensitization programs
on peaceful elections for both party leadership and their
young followers. With elections officially postponed from
November 29, we believe a USG statement calling for elections
as soon as possible and urging leaders to publicly renounce
the use of violence to protect the credibility of the process
could be helpful. End Summary


2. (SBU) In spite of the official announcement of a delay in
the presidential elections, progress continues to be made,
with the provisional electoral list now on the internet and
expected to be posted at all polling places during the week
of November 16. A four-week contestation period (contentieux)
will commence once the list has been posted nationwide.
International NGO's, as well as members of political parties
and civil society are concerned about the possibility of
violence, particularly by young people, as the electoral
process moves into higher gear. At a roundtable sponsored by
the Embassy on November 10, representatives of 12 Ivoirian
human rights organizations expressed concern about the youth
wings of all political parties. With youth unemployment
estimated at over 60 percent, many see little opportunity for
economic advancement except through political patronage from
"their" candidate who will, of course, win the election.
In addition, it is easy to attract large groups into the
streets by paying them fairly small sums. Disturbingly, one
NGO rep noted that young people admire wealthy officials,
despite them being extremely corrupt. With little confidence
in governmental institutions, many youth seem to believe that
"seule la lutte paie (only struggle pays)."


3. (C) All major political leaders assure their followers
that their party will win. (For example, in Divo and
Yamoussoukro, local officials of all three parties
steadfastly maintained to emboffs that their candidate would
carry the region by a large margin.) While this can be
dismissed as part of the campaign process, one result could
well be that supporters of the losing candidates will be
taken by surprise and believe that the outcome was unfair.
The NDI country representative told us he was concerned by
the high level of hate-filled rhetoric from all parties, in
particular from the PDCI, and planned to arrange a round
table with the youth leaders to discuss ways to have a
peaceful election. Another NGO involved in elections told us
that the RDR has admitted that its youth wing will be very
difficult to control. In a November 12 meeting, Ambassador
asked PDCI Secretary General DjeDje Mady to discourage party
members from using violence. His response was that that if
the Young Patriots take to the streets, the PDCI youth wing
will respond in kind.


4. (SBU) There are several sensitive stages in the
electoral process. The time allotted for contesting names on
the list must be handled well, according to one NGO rep, as
the question of national identity is particularly
inflammatory. A Carter Center representative believes that
most problems will arise in the aftermath of the election, as
it would be fairly easy to disrupt the tabulation process.


5. (C ) Comment: The strong arm tactics used by the
pro-FPI Young Patriots since 2002 have driven other political
parties to allow their youth wings to develop a similar
capacity for violence. Local NGOs are clearly worried about
the potential for violence to disrupt the elections and
tarnish the results. Now that the election has officially
been postponed, we believe the time is right for the U.S. to
make a public statement reiterating our view that elections
need to take place as soon as possible and calling on
political party leaders to renounce the use of violence to
ensure a credible process.


NESBITT